The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I think it will move when we see official numbers for Jubilee production. August numbers still not published yet and probably need Septembers numbers to get a true feel for the production increase. So this is probably going to bounce around till we get another RNS (maybe Ghana gas, however wouldn't be surprised if that is another interim agreement) or some good production numbers from an official source.
https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/
Unless we have to wait for the official production forecast for 2024 to be released :-(. They better show a significant production increase after all this!
It was predicted that the first interim gas sales agreement would be sign mid last year if I recall correctly and would take us to the end of June 2023. We only got the first announcement in the January update and we got the RNS for the latter in August. So if that is anything to go by I guess we'll probably get one in the first week of November for another interim agreement. I think the wheels of corruption turn slowly in Africa, so everything takes longer. I also don't see any RNS for the first interim gas sales agreement in December last year. Am I somehow missing this or wasn't an RNS released? IR missed a trick if they didn't.
RNS on 3rd August
"This agreement is expected to continue until the end of the third quarter of 2023. An agreement on acceptable commercial terms for export of future long-term volumes of Jubilee and TEN gas is in progress for completion by that time."
January Trading Statement & Operational Update on 25th January
An Interim Gas Sales Agreement for 19 bcf of Jubilee gas was executed in December, representing the first commercialisation of Jubilee gas.
Also just noticed......Lapsett have put out 4 tenders. Not sure I'm reading too much into it, however I'm wondering if these are the consultants Rahul referenced in the H1 results presentation. Timelines seem to fit as tenders close 22nd Sept and deadlines for the outputs appear to be before March 2024.
https://www.lapsset.go.ke/index.php/tenders/
INDIVIDUAL CONSULTANCY SERVICES UNDER TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES AND RELATED TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE ON THE LAPSSET CORRIDOR PROJECT- LAMU PORT DEVELOPMENT
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1. Individual Consultancy Services for a Demand and Comparative Analysis study for the Port of Lamu and Lamu Special Economic Zone.
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2. Individual Consultancy Services for the Port of Lamu and Lamu Special Economic Zone Marketing Strategy.
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3. Individual Consultancy Services for development of a Communication Strategy for the Port of Lamu and Lamu Special Economic Zone.
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4. Individual Consultancy Services for the development of an Infrastructure Components Sequencing Plan and Utility Requirements Study.
Interesting reading....
https://www.gem.wiki/Lamu_Port-South_Sudan_(LAPSSET)_Pipeline#LAPSSET_Corridor_Program
Pipeline is o the Lapsett website.....
https://www.lapsset.go.ke/index.php/projects/crude-oil-pipeline/
And was mentioned again today as part of Kenya Vision 2030 on Twitter (see bottom of the post in the link below)
https://twitter.com/KenyaVision2030/status/1704225935686287587?t=fEWMaIVEtO3sEJF6waVXJQ&s=19
Made headlines again today....
https://twitter.com/standard_ngr/status/1704072381566771418?t=yJi9a7QJ1g24HxNTth1m1A&s=19
They really can't leave that oil in the ground now....surely???
You do need to remember that it's an average for the year and some of the oil is hedged with a ceiling of $70 something ..... so we can't get too carried away. Also, I'd prefer we smash the guidance than fall short, as if we fall short we know what happens. We dropped 10% on H1 results just by narrowing the guidance down even though it was still within the original range.
How do you tell your people you're leaving billions of oil in the ground when the price of fuel is skyrocketing????
https://www.pd.co.ke/news/cabinet-shuffle-writing-is-on-the-wall-201916/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTe7sBSG3SE
https://ntvkenya.co.ke/news/dp-rigathi-gachagua-dismisses-ndii-kuria-remarks/
https://kiss100.co.ke/exclusives/2023-09-17-khalwale-to-ruto-sack-kuria-and-chirchir/
Some on here have said institutions short the share and go long on the bonds. So what happens when/if the bonds get to around par ..... do they close their short positions, only do that when the bonds are repaid or just repeat the process with the new bonds issued?