Member Info for antonvb

J.bond I get your cynicism under the circumstances, however he is buying and not so long ago everyone on here was whining that the directors aren't buying. Also, remember that he bought the 2025's in the 80's in December when everyone was saying they'd not get paid and got a very good return in 3 months. Plus he's also bought the 2026's which is another good sign for the refinancing.

Seems to be the only one at Tullow who is trying to support the share price, so think we should cut him some slack. Even though overall he may be underwater on his share purchases, for me his recent purchases are a definite sign that Tullow isn't going bust anytime soon and they will get the refinancing done. That is the important thing and the rest will follow, hopefully leading to share holder returns.

Looks like Kenya did indeed get what it wanted....

https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/04/23/how-ruto-administration-imposed-a-kenyan-buyer-on-tullow-oil,110438439-eve

Good old 10p brigrade out in force today ... not quite as confident as in the past though, as predicting 11p now.

" This one is finished." ..... couldn't agree more. That is exactly why RG bought another 150K shares yesterday.

JBOTAMAX

I have started to wonder if he’s a bit cleverer than we think and has just setup a bot to post a random pointless response or insult every time someone posts.

RG has just bought another 150k shares ......

Joking of course ... he knows what he's doing.

Another point to remember is that it is a "Heads of terms for sale". A heads of terms agreement details preliminary contract terms that are yet to be finalised as discussions are underway concerning the sale of the business. So at the moment probably nothing is legally binding and we'll only know all the details if the sale is agreed.

I think it's pretty clear from the definition of a back in right. Gulf will bring this to first oil and then at the point they have recovered their initial costs from the oil they produce, Tullow will then have the option to take their 30% stake with no cost. Tullow will obviously then from that point going forward also be responsible for their share of the production costs, etc.

https://www.lsd.law/define/back-in-right

"A quick definition of back-in right:

Back-in right: A type of agreement in the oil and gas industry where the original owner of a lease can regain a share of the profits after the new owner recovers their costs from production.

A more thorough explanation:

A back-in right is a type of reversionary interest in an oil-and-gas lease. It entitles the assignor to a share of the working interest after the assignee has recovered specified costs from production.

For example, let's say Company A assigns an oil-and-gas lease to Company B. The lease includes a back-in right for Company A, which means that once Company B recovers its specified costs from production, Company A has the right to regain a share of the working interest in the lease.

Another example could be a landowner who leases their land to an oil company. The lease agreement includes a back-in right for the landowner, which allows them to regain a share of the working interest in the lease after the oil company recovers its specified costs from production.

Overall, a back-in right is a way for the assignor to retain some ownership and control over the oil-and-gas lease, even after assigning it to someone else."

Xxnjr ... the Gabonese government seems quite serious about all of this and there was big signing ceremony in March. So hopefully there'll be no delay in finalising the deal and getting payment. It is a little strange that this ceremony was only reported in the French language media and not in any of the English language media. However, if you search "Tullow Oil Gabon" on Twitter there are a lot of articles in French on it and below is a link to a news report video on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C3e2lBMbZo

At 1:06 in the video you can see the 3 people from Tullow delegation. On the left appears to be Jean-Medard Madama, Managing Director for Tullow Ghana (https://www.instagram.com/tullowghanaltd/reel/DAiRz-eCm7h/). In the middle is the person who signed on behalf of Tullow, however doesn't appear to be a board member. Anyone recognise who that is? I'm also wondering if the person with the white hair is RG, however not sure on that one.

People have very short memories on here. Less than 6 months ago people were saying Tullow is going bust as they will default on the 2025 bonds. RG bought 2025 bonds, everyone said he was crazy and look how that worked out for him. He's not stupid and a very wealthy man for a reason.

Why is the SP at 13p ?

I'll tell you why ..... because if Tullow can't refinance everything else is irrelevant and there is no more Tullow. I think some of you need to take a chill pill. The share price will stay in this range till the refinancing. I think there is a solid plan in place to consolidate and bring debt under control and these recently announced asset sales have been put as conditions by the lenders as part of the refinancing. Richard seemed very confident Tullow would be able to refinance by 30th June 2025 and seems to be delivering on the asset sales. We'll hopefully know more on the 22nd of May when Tullow hold their AGM. In the mean time ..... place your bets!

PS MarcelKrell. I said I'd probably consider selling in the 30's after the refinancing, not the 20's.

On his Facebook page...

https://www.facebook.com/HonOpiyoWandayi

"Delighted today to hold wide ranging consultations with elected leaders drawn from Turkana County. Discussed the progress of the South Lokichar Basin Oil Project focusing on aligning our efforts to ensure the responsible and effective development of this project while creating the right strategies for oil acquisition, engaging with the local community, and establishing clear timelines and milestones. The Energy Ministry remains fully committed to support and jointly work together in order to bring sustainable benefits to the people of Turkana and to the entire country."

Https://x.com/OpiyoWandayi/status/1912955032476991910

CS Opiyo Wandayi, EGH

@OpiyoWandayi

"Held consultations with Turkana County leadership. Discussed the progress of the South Lokichar Basin Oil Project. Committed to alignment of efforts towards jumpstarting of the project for full oil field development."

Strangely nothing on Twitter about his meeting with Richard this morning.....

Feeling a little better about yourself now frogthemogg?

Desperate stuff having to resort to ramping UOG on here.....

I don't think it's a bad thing..... few million in wages saved, plus Richard is doing an excellent job. Let him count the beans, take care of the asset sales, steady the ship, get the refinancing done and then we can get a new CEO.

Worth reading ....

https://attorneys.media/back-in-rights/

Exactly ... that is why it will take at least 5 years. Gulf energy need to build the pipeline and get to first oil. Then once Gulf Energy have recovered all their costs, Tullow will have the "back-in right for a 30% participation (before Government back-in) in potential future development phases at no cost."

So …. No more 90p by 3pm now I guess.

Been mulling this over in my head and where does this leave us now. I’ve been waiting 4 years for the Kenya RNS and got to admit I would have liked a bit more out of it. However, that said, to me it seems pretty clear that Tullow isn’t going bust and will be able to refinance. This to me is the most important thing and the uncertainty that I believe is depressing the share price (and oil price outlook obviously). I also think these asset sales are part of an already agreed refinancing agreement, so it’s just a matter of time before we get the refinancing RNS. Richard seemed very confident this would be by the 30th of June in the results presentation last month and he seems to be delivering at pace at the moment.

I think the Kenya deal is actually a pretty good one under the circumstances. It’s plain to see the Kenyan government have been stalling the approval of the FDP for years as they wanted something. They have now hopefully got what they wanted and it can proceed. If Tullow get $80m out of this by June 2026, that is nearly half the current market cap and besides me, no one thought they’d get even $1 out of Kenya. It might not seem like a lot, however for this to proceed someone needs to invest $3b and we all know Tullow doesn’t have anything to contribute. What this does is take all the risk from Tullow, yet they retain a 30% option. Obviously, it will be at least 5 years before they can exercise their back in rights, however what that does is give them something to continue with towards Jubilee’s end of life and ensures the survival of the company longer term.

If Gulf Energy can get the project to first oil and get production up to 120kbopd, if Tullow get 25% of that it that equates to 30kbopd. Excluding the final $40m payment and other royalties, at $60 oil that is $657m a year and at $80 that is $876m a year.

Tullow only had 50% of Kenya not so long ago and considering they have found a way forward and can potentially retain 30%, I think it’s a great result. Perhaps not great for the share price in the short term, but great for the company.

So, for me I’m now looking forward to the AGM next month, going to wait for the refinancing and a target of 30p and will then probably exit. Might even try trade a few of the swings now, as everyday it goes up over 5% seems to drop back the next day. In the past I never had an exit strategy and was gambling on Kenya, which cost me but still think it was worth the gamble. Win some, lose some …… no regrets as they’re pointless.