Member Info for antonvb

PS Good to see TEN production back up too

June, 2025 16,462.47

https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/

Jubilee production figures released for June

June, 2025 62,101.70

Almost exactly 1k bopd higher than May. Small increase but at least going in the right direction and I seem to recall them saying the new well would produce around 1k bopd at first. Could also just be a coincidence that it has risen 1k of course.

Xxjnr I believe the refinancing is tied to the Gabon payment which Richard stated in the last webinar that they were hoping to get completed by the 30th of June.

Heads of Terms RNS

· Entering into the full sale and purchase agreement (SPA) is targeted for the second quarter of 2025.

· Completion of the Transaction and receipt of funds is expected around the middle of year.

AGM RNS

o Sale and purchase agreement (SPA) signed for the sale of Tullow's entire Gabonese portfolio of assets for a total cash consideration of $300 million net of tax. Approval by the Gabonese Ministry of Hydrocarbons has already been received and subject to the remaining conditions precedent, completion of the transaction and receipt of funds is expected around the middle of the year.

The 30th of June is also a deadline for how they will report the sale in the half year accounts.

Gabon SPA RNS

Following Completion, the Group will no longer receive the contribution that the Disposed Assets currently make to the Group's financial results. In the Group's forthcoming interim consolidated financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2025, the Disposed Assets will be presented as a disposal group held for sale and discontinued operations in accordance with IFRS 5 if Completion takes place by 30 June 2025. As a result, comparative financial information will be restated in the interim consolidated income statement for the six months ended 30 June 2024 to present the financial results for the Disposed Assets in the prior period as discontinued operations.

Also in the Gabon SPA RNS they give a 6 month deadline for the sale, which from the 13th of May when the SPA was announced is mid November.

"The Seller has undertaken to use all reasonable endeavours to procure the fulfilment of the DE8 JOA Pre-emption Condition, the Ministry of Hydrocarbons Pre-emption Condition, the Ministry of Hydrocarbons Approval Condition, the Investment Framework Condition and the Tax Condition as soon as possible after the signing date of the SPA and in any event by no later than 5.00pm London on the date that is six (6) months following the date of the SPA (unless the Seller and the Purchaser mutually agree to extend such date) (being the "Long Stop Date")."

This also ties in with the extension of the RCF to the end of October, as per the below also from the AGM RNS.

"· Tullow has extended its Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) to the end of October 2025, with all lenders participating in the extension, demonstrating their ongoing support. The RCF, which is currently drawn to manage near-term working capital, has been reduced to $150 million, in line with working capital requirements in a low oil price environment. The facility will be repaid and cancelled in full on completion of the Gabon disposal when it will no longer be required for liquidity management."

I still think the refinancing has already been agreed in principle, however is subject to certain conditions

I see the usual nay sayers are out on here today and the JBOTAMAX is posting at a furious rate. However, if you put all that aside and think about it .... not so long ago Tullow only had 50% of Kenya and there seemed no hope of it ever reaching production stages. Now they are going end up with $140 million, contingent payments and retain a 30% back in right with no past or future decommissioning liabilities. Sounds like a good deal to me, especially now it is abundantly clear the Kenyan government were never going to let Tullow develop it and were happy to let it drag on indefinitely.

From the RNS

"Tullow retains a back-in right for a 30% participation in potential future development phases at no historic cost. This right can be exercised if a third party investor participates in future development phases, whether through a sale or farm-down of the Purchaser's interest in the assets."

Explained by Chatgpt

Summary of the Back‑in Right

What it is: The right allows Tullow to take up a 30% stake in future development phases (post‑government back‑in), without having to bear any historical costs — meaning they’re not required to reimburse past capital or exploration expenditures.

When it applies: It can be triggered if the purchaser (Gulf Energy Ltd) brings in a third‑party partner or investor by selling or farming down some portion of the acquired interest.

Purpose: This mechanism enables Tullow to preserve an upside exposure to any future growth potential in the asset, while exiting current cash outflows and liabilities at the point of sale.

🔎 Context & Purpose

This kind of clause is quite common in the oil & gas sector, especially for non-operated interests. For Tullow, it served as a way to deleverage and exit the Kenya portfolio in the short‑term while still preserving optionality on future value creation. The back‑in right creates an alignment that protects their potential upside if development moves forward under new operators.

✅ Key Terms to Be Aware Of

Term Detail

Participation level: 30% interest (pre‑government back‑in rights)

Cost impost: No historic cost obligation—Tullow doesn’t pay past costs.

Trigger event: If the purchaser enters a farm‑down or sale with a third party, Tullow may exercise.

Operational phase: Only applies to future development phases, not prior or ongoing operations.

📌 Why It Matters for Tullow

Limited downside, potential upside: They remove legacy liabilities but keep economic exposure to future production upside.

Strategic flexibility: In the event of future development, they can step back in selectively—especially valuable given their deep familiarity with the project and existing stakeholder relationships in Kenya.

Alignment with proceeds: They receive near‑term capital (with staged payments and royalties), yet maintain optional access to future gains without further capital requirement.

Next news …. unless the Gabon sale goes through before then.

Upcoming events

Title Date Calendar downloads

2025 Half Year results 06 Aug 2025, 09:00 Download event

Https://www.kenyanhour.com/how-rutos-state-house-steered-tullow-oils-exit-to-a-politically-linked-buyer-who-is-also-allegedly-involved-in-kdf-budget-looting-claims/

Sadly for you JBOTAMAX whatever you post on here doesn’t change what you see when you login to your bank account.

Oh well… maybe one day UOG will get to £13 and you’ll break even. In the meanwhile keep up the fantasy to help you cope.

You’re forgetting that when pretty all of this was put in place we had RD in charge, with oil well over $70 and him believing Jubilee would be producing over 100kbopd after the drilling campaign.

You know the JBOTAMAX has been triggered when you get two for the price of one posts.

Again nothing but ..... from JBOTAMAX

AGM Trading Update

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/agm-trading-update-euegmvm87vvzuge.html

"· Tullow has extended its Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) to the end of October 2025, with all lenders participating in the extension, demonstrating their ongoing support. The RCF, which is currently drawn to manage near-term working capital, has been reduced to $150 million, in line with working capital requirements in a low oil price environment. The facility will be repaid and cancelled in full on completion of the Gabon disposal when it will no longer be required for liquidity management."

I think that's Rahul's spin that's still on the website.

I'm starting to think EPRA won't approve the FDP by 30th of June (sarcasm... before anyone wets their pants). Surely they would want it approved before the end of September at least, as who in their right mind would bid for any of the new licences if they will never actual get permission to produce. Would also like to see the Gabon sale over the line.

"In a few months the USD lost about 20% of its value. This means that this miserable 65$ /bbl is the equivalent of 50-55 USD. Oil is literally for free as of now."

Try telling that to the guy behind the counter at the petrol station next time you fill up. I'm sure you'll find that $65 is still $65 which ever way you look at it. Contracts and payments will more than likely all be in USD rather than local currencies. Bit like the sale of the Gabon assets and Kenya assets being in USD rather than local currencies. Also, another example is the contract for the Noble Venturer drillship which is in USD too. Plus don't forget the hedges.

The catalyst is the Gabon sale. When the $300m hits the bank account the refinancing will be done and share price will go up.

What is disappointing is the lack of communication, as would be nice to know what is going on. However, if you think about it RM has very clearly stated what the plan is and I assume working hard towards it. Albeit that it's taking a little longer than expected, which is not surprising given this is all happening in Africa. So I guess unless we're advised otherwise we have no reason to not believe the objectives already stated will be achieved. RG definitely seems to think so.

I guess the issue is while we wait doubt creeps in, bogus articles appear on social media and people start to question themselves. However, behind the scenes that changes nothing. So you either wait patiently for the refinancing or you get out/short if you believe it's going bust.

JEFFERIES RAISES TULLOW OIL PRICE TARGET TO 12 (10) PENCE - 'UNDERPERFORM'

Who's we .... you and NSVPatel or is it you and another of your split personalities.

Ooooooops … touched nerve.

RG bought the 2025 bonds just before they were repaid. This was when everyone else was saying Tullow was going bust, as they wouldn't be repaid. He did very well out of that. JBOTAMAX can post all the nonsense they like, however it doesn't change the fact that RG is a multi millionaire and JBOTAMAX is just a troll that is bitter that they bought into Tullow at £13 in the glory days.

Yes, he'll now ask me what my average is or say he called the sell at 39p or post some other sh ite. However, he knows and we know that whatever he posts, it doesn't change what he sees when he logs into his online banking and his share dealing account.

So ... will Kenya approve the FDP by the 30th of June? It wouldn't be insider trading if they did, as the Kenyan Energy Minister has very recently said they will. So would be considered information already available to all. Going to be a nervous weekend for some on here and strangely the 10p brigade has mostly stayed away during the drop from 22p to where we are now.

You and me both…. has anyone on here emailed IR for comment? Think I’ll drop them an email and ask what the hell is going on.

I think you’ll find it’s worth 0.3p more …..

I ask myself what is the difference between today, yesterday and the day before, besides the share price. All I can find is this one vague article:

https://news.sky.com/story/london-listed-tullow-oil-sees-merger-with-meren-energy-collapse-13385128

The article is extremely thin on detail and surely a failed merger isn't enough to cause a 25% drop in share price in an hour. Nor is there any other source and it has hardly been repeated in other media outlets. There appear to be so many unanswered questions here. When the rumours of the merger with Kosmos were leaked and when the talks ceased an RNS was released, however no RNS was released for this rumour. Why? Did it happen too quickly for them to react? Is IR on holiday? Is it a false rumour and they're unsure how to react to it or have called in the Police/FCA?

What is also unusual is that every time a possible merger is announced the share price drops and when the merger is called off it rises, however this time it was the opposite.

12th December - Rumours of merger RNS

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/statement-re-possible-offer-i0e00adh2my5pwi.html

13th December

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/statement-re-possible-offer-9kpa6zer3ymev1q.html

12th to 17th December the share price dropped from 26p to 20p

17th December - Merger called off RNS

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/statement-regarding-possible-offer-for-tullow-oil-qbm2fyztm56tgu6.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/termination-of-preliminary-discussions-with-kosmos-1w0ckf5dk01tn38.html

17th to 19th December the share price increased from 20p to 21p

The share price then dipped to 19p on the 24th before rising back to 24.5p by the 6th of January

So did someone create this rumour to drop the share price or did someone use the rumour as a cover for an attack on the share price. Hartree recently reduced their short by 0.23%, so would have recently bought back around 3.5 million shares. Did they or whomever they returned the shares too wait for "bad news" and then dump 3.5 million shares within an hour, thus triggering panic, stop losses and the algo's to panic sell. All this causing a flash crash. Just a theory, however makes a lot of sense as it protects the remaining 0.56% short they have and gives them the opportunity to reduce it under 20p. Thus not making a loss.

Guess we'll never know, however if there is no "news" or this was orchestrated the share price will recover.

Funny how the bonds haven’t really reacted to all this “news”.

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg91237ab60-tullow-oil-plc-10-25-21-26?mic=XFRA

If there was trouble brewing it would be reflected in the bonds too. Surely???