Member Info for antonvb

Well said J.Bond. The issue I have though is in all the years I've been on this BB I've seen countless people say this is going sub 10p and push their agenda, however only one of them has ever admitted to taking out a short and that was HappyInvestor100 back in 2020. People who ramp are quite open about their positions, however those that short never admit it. I think this is why there is so much animosity .....

Supercooper ... it is frustrating at the moment, however are we drifting? I'm not so sure....... since Rahul departed RM has:

* Stated he is confident of refinancing by 30 June 2025.

* Agreed the sale of Gabon.

* Agreed the heads of terms for the sale of Kenya.

All that and assume he has still been doing all the other mundane stuff too like managing the Jubilee shut down, dealing with the 4D results, trying to arrest the production decline, etc.... Really not sure what difference a new CEO will make at the moment, besides cost them a few million a year in wages.

In the November trading update they mentioned the following. It's possible these power outages could still be an issue, however at this stage who knows. With a bit of luck we'll get some info at the AGM on the 22nd. Richard seems to be a bit more forthcoming with information than Rahul was.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/november-trading-update-z2f41wbav3c4zoy.html

· Jubilee oil production averaged c.89 kbopd (c.34.5 kbopd net) to end-October, below expectations primarily due to underperformance of the J69-P well as flagged previously, unplanned downtime at the GNGC onshore gas processing plant and periods of reduced water injection due to power outages.

As you say doesn't look good, however RG still seems happy to invest.

TankerQ unfortunately you can never be right until you’re back in profit…. simple as that.

From the 2024 results in March…..

Gross oil production from the Jubilee field averaged c.87 kbopd (c.33.9 kbopd net). Production was impacted primarily by the performance of the J69 producer well, a lack of pressure communication from water injection, water injection performance and increased water cut in certain wells. The FPSO will undergo planned maintenance in the first quarter of 2025, during which we plan to implement upgrades to improve the reliability of the power supply and water injection consistency. Stable water injection combined with production optimisation activities is expected to reduce the rate of decline experienced in the second half of 2024.

77,000 (Jan) + 74,000 (Feb) + 49,000 (Mar) = 200,000

200,000 / 3 = 66,666

Kosmos Q1 production figure for Jubilee = 66,600 bopd

49,000 (Mar) x 31 (days in March) = 1,519,000

1,519,000 / 24 (operating days in March) = 63,291

So looks like Jubilee was producing 63kbopd in March. What to make of this…. really not sure. Need to see the figures for May I guess. Fingers crossed they fixed whatever was broken during the shutdown.

Price seems to suggest a sell, however shows as a 12M buy when looking at the graph and the price seemed to go up from there. Bit of luck we'll get an RNS and someone has increased their holding..... but I'm not holding my breath. See what I did there :-)

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/TLW/tullow-oil-plc/company-page

tradeDate currency price volume tradeValue tradeType micCode

2025-05-07T11:09:26+01:00 GBp 13.06 5795611 756,906.8 Off-book XLON

2025-05-07T11:09:18+01:00 GBp 13.06 5795611 756,906.8 Off-book XLON

Hopefully we'll get an update at the AGM on 22nd May

https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/shareholder-centre/general-meetings/

https://apps.computershare.com/MeetingsShareholderWeb/Home?Code=TULLAGM2025&Invitation=&Locale=en

Is it disappointing or expected, as Kosmos have not change their guidance for the year. If there was any significant decrease in production or decline they would of had to adjust their guidance .... surely?

"Production

Total net production(2) in the first quarter of 2025 averaged approximately 60,500 boepd, impacted by planned shutdowns at Jubilee in Ghana and at the Kodiak host facility in the Gulf of America. Both shutdowns have been completed, with no major scheduled shutdowns for the remainder of the year. Production was slightly below guidance primarily due to the delayed ramp-up at GTA. Full year 2025 production guidance for GTA remains at 20-25 gross cargos as production ramps up towards the annual contracted level. Full year 2025 company production guidance is unchanged at 70,000 – 80,000 boepd.

The Company exited the quarter in a net underlift position of approximately 1.2 mmboe."

$60 seems very high and who’d buy it now if that was the case, however we know Gulf Energy want to buy it now. Opinions seem to vary on the cost ….

The production cost per barrel of oil in the Turkana region of Kenya is estimated to be between $22 and $31 USD. A project review reduced the cost from Sh4,030 ($31) to Sh2,860 ($22) per barrel. However, some estimates suggest a higher cost, with one source citing a $45 USD per barrel cost IEA Kenya. Another estimate, based on a Rystad analysis, suggests a break-even price of $60.65 per barrel.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Initial Estimates:

Initial development plans for the Turkana oil fields were designed to be viable at oil prices of at least $50 per barrel.

Project Review:

A project review, potentially in response to lower oil prices, saw the cost per barrel reduced to $22 USD.

Higher Estimates:

Some estimates put the cost of production at a higher level, such as $45 USD per barrel.

Break-Even Price:

A Rystad analysis estimated a break-even price of $60.65 per barrel for the Turkana oil fields.

Rhd3 do you have a reference to that claim as AOI exited Kenya in March 2023.

From the Kosmos update…..

Ghana

Production in Ghana averaged approximately 33,000 boepd net in the first quarter of 2025. Kosmos lifted two cargos from Ghana during the quarter, in line with guidance.

At Jubilee (38.6% working interest), oil production in the first quarter averaged approximately 66,600 bopd gross, reflecting the scheduled FPSO shutdown that ran from March 25, 2025 to April 8, 2025. The shutdown was completed safely and on budget.

The Noble Venturer rig is due to arrive later this month to drill two Jubilee wells in 2025. The rig is scheduled to undertake a four-well drilling campaign on Jubilee in 2026, which will benefit from the 4D seismic data that is currently being processed with state-of-the-art algorithms.

In the first quarter of 2025, gas production net to Kosmos was approximately 5,300 boepd in line with expectations.

MarcelKrell….. they are definitely selling to Gulf Energy Kenya Ltd rather than Gulf Energy Ltd in the UAE.

The RNS states

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-agrees-heads-terms-sale-kenyan-assets-120-million/

“Transaction with Gulf Energy, a leading Kenyan energy and infrastructure group”

“Tullow Oil has indicated that the break-even cost for Kenyan oil production is around $25 per barrel.”

This article is based on a presentation given by Tullow in 2020

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/tullow-says-kenya-oil-commercially-viable-at-25-dollars-a-barrel-2108254

MarcelKrell I think you’re thinking of the wrong Gulf Energy. Gulf Energy Kenya are buying the licence from Tullow. They already run the petrol supply to fuel stations there.

Gulf Energy Kenya was acquired by French multinational Rubis Énergie in December 2019. The acquisition was executed through Rubis’s subsidiary, KenolKobil, which had been purchased earlier that year for approximately KSh 35.6 billion (about €312 million) . The deal, valued at €129 million (approximately KSh 16.4 billion) after a price adjustment, positioned Rubis as the leading oil marketer in Kenya, with a combined market share of over 21% .

JBOTAMAX posting relentlessly .....

Lse2000 if this is going bankrupt why are you “holding” …. just another one full of ****. I never understand why those who are short have to always lie about their position when they deramp.

Hopefully we’ll know more soon ….

Kosmos Q1 Results on 6th May

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-host-first-quarter-2025-results-and-webcast-may-6

Tullow AGM on 22nd May

https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/shareholder-centre/general-meetings/

Actually reading it again what is interesting is it only mentions the Gabon sale and not Kenya. So looks like it is only the Gabon sale that is needed for the refinancing, which is very good news given how long Kenya has dragged on for.

To be exact ....

"In addition, if a holistic refinancing was not executed by the end of June 2025 and receipt of proceeds from the sale of Tullow Oil Gabon SA was delayed (as assumed in the Low Case scenario), the Directors plan to enter into discussions with the lenders under the RCF to extend the maturity of the facility to align with the timing of completion of the holistic refinancing or the receipt of proceeds from the sale of Tullow Oil Gabon SA. Should this not be possible, the Directors will pursue alternative bridge financing from commodity traders or secure an alternative source of financing from private credit markets ahead of the projected shortfall at the end of June 2025. The Directors have received unsolicited offers of credit from such counterparties in excess of the need to alleviate the projected shortfall and would seek to engage with them and progress such offers, if required."

I still think from the way this has been worded in recent communications, the refinancing has already been agreed however it is subject to the asset sales or it has been agreed for an amount that is the total debt less what they will get from the assets sales.