Member Info for antonvb

I'm tired of spread....I want caviar!

I rest my case.....

Good luck getting your 300p. If the merger fails you'll be back under 220p before you can click the sell button.

No ... the difference is when my sentiment turns negative I sell and move on to something I feel positive about. But I don't suddenly get despondent because we're down a few percent today. Materially what has changed between today and yesterday .... nothing really. So we have just as much chance of Kenya happening as we did yesterday. If anything even more chance, as we're another day past the election. No one on here can say for sure if it'll happen, but posting negativity on down days when you want your shares to recover ..... makes no sense and is counter productive.

PS: I also really don't care about the merger, as there's arguments for and against it and it hasn't helped our share price one bit since being announced.

I don't get paid .... I just get annoyed when people who hold (or say they hold) Tullow shares post negative sentiment. Why would you do that??? I understand if someone presents facts and puts forward a valid argument, then fair enough.

Well I'm right and I've got a great feeling about Kenya. Although I might be wrong and it could be an exceptional feeling and it could be just feelings I'm working through. Or maybe it's an attachment that's developed into a feeling or maybe it's a feeling with deeper meaning. Perhaps even a feeling about a feeling or just a feeling trying to feel.

Give me strength!!! Every time we go below 50p they come creeping out the woodwork without fail.

My feeling is that Kenya will happen and the merger will happen too for a few reasons:

* The BOD of CNE are not stupid and from what people say are in it for themselves. So why would they agree a deal that instantly makes them 20 or so percent worse off.
* Rahul is also not stupid, so if he had any doubt about Kenya he would never have announced the merger. He knows if Kenya fails the merger fails and he's out.
* CNE and TLW are party to information that no one else is and this information is what would of made the merger attractive to the CNE BOD.
* CNE shareholders can say what they like or throw their toys out the pram now, but ultimately what matters is the two share prices on the day of the vote. Hence why we don't have a date for the vote and we'll only get the date after Kenya happens.
* Who becomes the next president of Kenya is irrelevant as getting Kenya to finally start producing it's oil would be a major win for whoever is in power and score them some serious political points. Plus in reality all that really changes is the palm that needs to be greased to get the deal signed.

Doesn't matter what happens in the election..... this is going back to 52p ish from 50p ..... that's been the range lately and happened several times. Someone is making a tidy profit doing that.

1 million buy about to kick in any minute now ...

I think it's the new 50p to 52.5p share. Seems to be bouncing in that range for a while now. Need some movement on Kenya to push it higher I think. Or maybe a bit of excitement around the half year results.

I want it to happen as well....was just pointing out how easy it is for things to be manipulated these days.

Here's a thought.....how much would it cost one of the big Tullow shorters to build up a big enough stake in CNE to be able to scupper the merger. Think only 25% of CNE holders need to vote against it and at the current CNE price that's roughly only roughly £185m to buy 25%.

This "activist" investor knows nothing. They're just looking at the current share prices and seeing they losing money. Rahul is not stupid and neither is the CNE board. They both know at the current share prices the deal doesn't make sense for CNE investors. Obviously there's a lot more too it than we're party to and things still to happen. Why else wouldn't they have set a date for the merger.

It's pretty obvious that Kenya will happen, the TLW share price will re-rate and the merger will happen as will be a no brainer for CNE holders then. That is why when the merger was announced no fixed date was given. I expect we'll get the Kenya announcement within the next 3 months and the merger will happen in Q4. That is assuming the new Kenyan government play their part, if not then the merger is unlikey to happen as who'd voluntarily swap £2.20 for £1.90.

Thanks. Think I'll stick with TLW as watching the share price has become my religion over the past 2 years. So find it sort of predictable.

This is starting to feel like watching paint dry ...... I'm starting to miss the wild 10 to 15% swings of 2020/21

Although at the moment if it gets to below 51p it's a definite buy with my top up funds and then an unload above 52p .... small profit but a nice little earner given the number of times it's going in that range at the moment. Not doing that with my main holding as don't want to miss out on a Kenya RNS. Think I've turned into JMAX .... lol

Another classic example of this....

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tullow-oil-abandons-guyana-well-after-dismal-drilling-results-2022-08-05/

Negative article about Gutana drill and surprise, surprise there's a photo and caption about Tullow Kenya at the top of the article.....

4 times now....and people say this share price isn't manipulated. Below link explains this....

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/analyst/030102.asp

Still waiting for 30p?

"Palliser Chief Investment Officer James Smith said he strongly believes Capricorn is worth at least 330 pence per share, or roughly 50% higher than where its shares traded Monday and 67% more than the proposed takeover price."

Welcome to our world Mr. Smith

I think people are a bit hung up on the bonds ... leaving Kenya aside, if the merger goes ahead that could clear almost half their debt with the cash pile. It would make more sense to reinvest the money and use it to generate a lot more cash. Debt is not an issue as long as it's manageable and I believe after the merger it would be easily manageable .... possibly pay off half and refinance the other half at a much lower interest rate or maybe buy a stonking asset that is a cash cow.