Member Info for antonvb

Give it a rest JMAX .....there's balance and then there's just saying the opposite for the sake of it.

Sadly the price of petrol at the pump won't come down to anything close to what it was no matter what happens to the price of oil. In 2008 oil tanked with the credit crunch and we hardly saw any reduction at the pump. Same will happen now if oil tanks again. If we're lucky it'll drop 10 or 20p a litre at the pump.

Thanks ... selecta6. Although I did also chuckle about the balanced bit, as I do think I'm just a tiny bit biased towards the upside :-)

Steamboatwilly you do make a point, however some would argue that hedging held it back. The oil price drop is certainly an excuse for it to dip anyway. I've said it before and still belive it today. The stock market is no longer about fundamentals and profits, but rather about what is the trend that people chase to try get rich quick. The big boys set the agenda and get in early, the lemmings follow and get burnt.

Slater606....rotten to core I agree and also used to think the shorts control this. Nowadays I'm doubtful as the big 3 shorts haven't increased their positions for almost 6 months

I recall a point in 2020 when the Tullow share price tanked from the high 20's back down to nearly 10p. At the time my healthy profit turned into a loss and I was kicking myself for not selling. I'm seeing a lot of people now expressing views on regretting still holding and yes, even I with hindsight would of liked to sell at 60p and buy back now. However, none of us can predict the future so there's no point in beating yourselves up. For me though I always ask myself what has actually changed to cause the sudden drop. In this case its the drop in the price of oil from $100 to $85. So what has caused the drop in the price of oil and how long will it last. The answer for me is simple. The US has been artificially manipulating the oil price with strategic reserve releases. This cannot continue indefinitely and must be annoying OPEC. So I can't see oil absolutely tanking and this must surely be another temporary sentiment dip. Then looking at the future possibilities for the rest of this year:

* The war in Ukraine and Russian sanctions don't look like ending anytime soon.
* China has to come to it's senses, unlock at some point soon and get in line with the rest of the world on Covid.
* The strategic reserve releases will come to an end in the near future.
* We're approaching winter where typically the price rises.
* The Kenya deal has a strong possibility of being announced any day now.
* The price of gas is at an all time high and there's a strong possibility of a Ghana gas deal being announced any day now.
* The merger may or may not happen and either outcome wouldn't be a bad thing I don't think, considering what's happened to the share price since it was announced.

What actually happens we'll only know once it's happened. In the meantime I stay positive as I still believe there's more upside potential than downside. Of course everyone needs to make there own decisions based on their own opinions and personal circumstances.

Here's hoping for a blue day and a rise back to at Kent 45p today. GLA

I'm all for ramping as you know and hate derampers.....but I don't really see an issue with CDF1's post. They're not ****ging off Tullow or making completely wild and ridiculous predictions about 30p. It's an opinion and unfortunately we could go back to 40p. Happened in July and may well happen again. Hopefully it won't but if it does I don't think it will be long before we're back over 50p again. I still think we're due a Ghana gas RNS and a Kenya RNS any day now.

Oil price ain't going down next year....only reason why it's dropped to $90 is the meddlingvin the market by the US and release of 10m barrels from the strategic reserve for delivery in November. There's only so long they can artificially increase supply for. Or more likely there's probably only so long they want to artificially increase supply.

It is often darkest before the dawn.....

My thoughts are why hold for 9 months or more and then sell now. We know how quickly this can rise and in a blink of an eye it could be 60p, 70p or higher on a good RNS and there's certainly a few potentials in the pipeline. Plus we're about to enter winter and a major energy crunch in Europe and of course don't forget the easing of the strategic reserve releases. I certainly won't even think about it at this price. Perhaps next year but not now. In the meantime the day traders can do their thing and move it up and down by 5% and I'll try catch a little of the gravy from the daily swings with my top up pot.

The good lord giveth and the MM's take it away.....

Even if you've held longer the point still stands....why sell when you've done most of the waiting. I'd give it till the end of the year at least. But we all have to do what we think is right, so if it's causing you sleepless nights than fair enough.

Why the hell would you hold for 3/4 of the year then reduce in the last 1/4 when there's potentially a Ghana gas deal and Kenya deal about to be announced. Madness

Oh and don't forget about the strategic reserve releases coming to an end imminently, plus winter is just around the corner.

That must be why we finished 4th top riser in the FTSE 250 yesterday. You believe whatever you want and good luck with your short.....just hope for your sake it's not a spread bet.

Bloody hell....we get this ridiculous hysteria after each update. What do you expect.....Rahul has put a 5 year plan in place and delivering on it. His aim is not to get the share price to 70p or 80p or even £1 by tomorrow so you can sell. By the end if the year we'll have a Ghana gas agreement, a Kenya deal and probably a merger. Suddenly you'll all be saying he's a hero when you cash in. Just remember TLW operates in Africa on Africa time..... things can take time and don't always go as smoothly as in the UK or Europe, so giving exact dates and deadlines is difficult. Plus you can be sure there are non disclosure agreements in place, so he's unable to update on a lot of things till we have ink on paper.

My take away from today is that we have a blue finish on a bad market day and very little bleating about how doomed we are from the people who normally pop out of the woodwork after each update to tell us we're going back to 30p. In fact our new friend POWER seems to be a lone voice today. TLW might not be producing fireworks, but they know it is no longer a lame duck, has a bright future and is a very, very risky short.

https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/africa-press-releases/tullow-oil-silver-sponsor-of-africa-oil-week-jrgnogau

https://www.myjoyonline.com/tullow-engages-government-on-urgent-gas-sales-contract/

BBC News - Kenya election 2022: William Ruto sworn in as president
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-62886989

Think most are waiting for £1...

:-)

Just remember not all hedges have a ceiling price, as some will protect you from the downside but still give you exposure to the upside. While others have both a floor and a ceiling price. Hedging is complex and cannot be expressed in simple terms (e.g. 75% of TLW's oil is hedged at $77 and the oil price is $90 so we're getting $77 a barrel). Simply doesn't work like that, but posters on here often over simplify it.

Adieuk32..... Rahul is not interested in short term share price volatility and he can't speculate on things he has no control over or are protected by non disclosure until the deal is in place e.g. Kenya elections and the Kenya deal. Look at Keith Hill from AOI, who twice this year gave dates for Kenya that came and went without any announcement. We're very close to the HY results and hopefully we'll get another update with those. So for me now is not the time to lose patience and think we have to accept that the Kenya announcement, Ghana gas announcement and merger details my only happen much later this year. I've waited 2 years, so a few more months isn't going to make much difference. Frustrating for us, but not a lot we or Rahul can do about it......pretty sure he can't buy shares given his knowledge of what is happening with the Kenya deal. So think it's a case of no news is good news as means the deal is still on the table.

I also think part of the problem is this share has become a great day trading share. Why? Because its so cheap you can't really lose on it as you know even if it dips after you buy you just have to hold and it'll bounce back. If it doesn't bounce back you just then wait for one of the announcements and will be back in profit.

There's a sea of red out there today.....holding up pretty well under the circumstances.