Member Info for Ant1986

Hmm, interesting...

But of a bleak picture :)

We have teamed up with Deltic for North Sea drills, on with Mexico, links with Israel and other regions discussed too. We also have UK tax losses. I cannot see a concentration of risk, because as you say, it wouldn't get support from II's who would need to vote.

I do fancy a takeover hatching here, not at £3, but I see the potential at £2.20 - £2.50...

Do you think there would be sufficient time to launch a bid before cash distribution?

Sounds straight forward and progressed, as has been communicated by the company.

Interesting take. I couldn't rule this out based on evidence.

It will end up private at this rate.

I started to come round to this, now we're sat at 170p - though a bid between £2.25-£2.50 would be hard not to accept at this point!

So, ignoring the cash from India (which will be used to add cash inflow after dividend/buyback), it's $106 + $75 premium oil price + $32 deferred + $15m Egypt (guess for q4) + Egypt asset (let's be cruel and discount it 50%) $150m + mexico oil ($25m?)+ UK ($25m?) = $413m (62p @ 1.38)

Also tax losses and other assets/further drilling).

So 154p (India) + 62p cash/assets = 216p

I have written off future cash from Egypt or what we might buy. So, it's still a cautious value.

It was $287, my apologies.

H1 cash 341

H2 capex (105 full year guidance less 20 H1 capex) (85)

North Sea disposal inflow (as below but 35 is deferred until next year) 152

Egypt acquisition (302)

Egypt debt drawdown 181

Year end cash (before India) 287

Debt drawn (181)

Year end net cash (before India) 106 (plus $75m for premium, $32 for deferred)

That's not far off 1% of the company, so I guess a seller has met a buyer here.

If this drops to 165p - it values the company at (without India payment) £54m.

£54m for $281m cash, $75m Brent premium payment, $32m deferred payment, $105m exploration, 100's of millions of barrels discovered in Mexico and producing assets in Egypt.

£54m. Crackers.

In £ terms I mean.

Trades late on, more than 3m.

Big UT - don't know if that's the sign of a turn or complete armageddon. Let's see tomorrow... hopefully rules will be out.

Actually, there is a tax meeting tomorrow too, should get out timeline and clarity on rules this week.

Currently addressing, eyes on update about retrospective taxation rules breaking...

Bang on in my book.

The only things I can think of for this valuation is risk of nonpayment from India or some short position in the market. This spiked to 180p in one day on absolute speculation. Now we are into open agreements and plans for cash distribution, we are 5p lower. That doesn't make much sense to me. Until that interim statement, there was still a large risk of no agreement or compliance on our side.

I think the market has taken the opportunity to push down and wipeout buyers who, like me, expected 230p rather than 175p.

This will either gap up on news and never come back or go incredibly slowly back up. Down from here and you might as well close the company down or sell it. It's currently trading at £100m, which isn't ftse250 pedigree, that's an AIM valuation.

No, both Air India and Cairn have asked for a stay on Monday, to allow time to settle away from court and then cease the arbitration.

We have very much colluded with the government and even Simon's "bold" comment smacked of mutual agreement. I don't attach much risk now.

Rules will be out very shortly (this week according to Indian papers)

No difficult calculations here or projections; the bank of England values the cash at £1.93 per share. Screw the market.

I'm enjoying my coffee this morning, I'd got so used to being another grand down before 9am I feel light as a feather. Shareprice found support late, yesterday, and is continuing now. This will turn and head back up, it has to. Cannot value the business this low on cash fundamentals alone. Someone has maximized this opportunity to crush the price before money in bank.

And just to stress, the business has more than a £100m in cash (not including any tax return). So the actual business is valued at next to fxxk all.