Member Info for Ant1986

I wouldn't say it's a dumpster asset, just not as exciting to some. Ultimately, it uses Cairn's skill set and experience, plus cash, in an area that compliments them. It will return positive cash flow. Shell had better assets and cash/relevant team to exploit other Egyptian sea based assets.

Valuing the business at £100m, all in, is unbelievable.

Odd?!

A FTSE250 company is currently being valued at £90m aside from a payment!

The whole business valued at zero? Just a cash payment from India? If we end up at £1.54 I'll be long gone. No point holding a company the market values at zero.

If it goes through £1.54 the world is upside down! I think it's upside down at £1.78!!

But surely it must be attracting big trades in now, with even a 3 month outlook, it's a stonking buy!

Only other thought is that an II has exited, using the liquidity.

To the confirmation that India and Cairn have settled for $1,060bn - it was 180p on wild news of just the tax part coming back. And people then thought the principal would be taxable. Now 179p now it's pretty much baked and tax free. 193p of the 179p share price is cash in the bank. 14p below cash. Tax losses and UK exploration this year. Oil discoveries in Mexico and more drilling. Steady flow of cash from Egypt. $175m from North Sea premium. $32m from deferred north sea sale. New assets about to land. Israel.

Nuts. trading like an AIM POS.

Especially as the free trade agreement between the UK/India is due to be tabled in November.

Even with the PSC agreement and royalties, it's a decent return. A large part of the fiscal agreement is shared production (factored in) and 10% royalties. 140m average between 2017-2019 isn't a bad return, and looks set to increase with the work Cairn will do.

The current valuation is daft, it shouldn't be trading sub cash, which it currently is. It was only 60p less when no one anticipated ANY return of cash. The cash from India alone is £1.52 + our year end cash $287/£0.41 a share. Then there is the North Sea premium ($72m/£0.10) and Egypt - let's be miserable and call it £15m/0.03p. So cash alone is £2.06.

Then there is a pile of potential value adding drills and explorations. There is also $32m coming from the north sea deferred payment (£0.05).

So I see £2.11 of cash per share. Nevermind future cash from assets or oil/gas strikes and farm out. $105m exploration just this year and already in the numbers!

Was mentioned as in the process of a farm-out agreement last week. Could be a pleasant surprise.

Did some calcs on Egypt - numbers were close that I posted earlier. Taking the lower end of guidance (33k barrels of which 35% liquid) leaves circa 11k barrels.

11k barrels with a b/e of $30 = $42 profit.

We are due to complete first week of October, which leaves circa 85 days left in the year. 85 x 11k @ $40 profit/1.39 = £27m + gas proceeds = easily £30m profit this year.

No, it's trading beneath cash and zero value added for assets, proven reserves or exploration. No premium for ftse250 listing either. That's not reality. That's depressed.

It's perhaps taking a rest.

In other news Cairn and Air India have requested a stay, which is line with an agreement being announced shortly. $1,060bn cash in the bank in just weeks!

Shake?

Easy calculation here $1,060bn (India) + $287m cash year end + $72m from North Sea oil price premium + $30m from India asset rev (guess) = £2.08 a share

OK, that leaves $181 debt drawn down but we're looking at cash here.

$105m will have been spent on drilling too (zero value apparently)

Broker (Jefferies) is now rating us 15p north of here at £1bn mcap.

Buy this now, as a fresh holder?

100%

Divi, share buyback, assets, cash, ftse250, gas skew.

Valued at cash.

They have reiterated the price today by the look of it, and on the 7th.

It does price in the full award though, without it, it works out the same at 215p. There, no need to argue, anyone...

I've just seen that. That's a big difference - 315p Barclay, today. Though that one didn't make the news!
I reckon you could argue both.

I'm comfortable holding a position 95% covered by cash and with assets generating more cash. Furthermore, there is $75m due this year from North Sea plus the deferred payment of $32m next year. There is also upcoming drills across multiple assets that are already paid for.

5% risk seems worth it...if you overlook the risk of India...

They have a fragmented story, bit still a story.

Deltic/Mexico/Egypt + $360m cash to invest

I think it will be just to reflect some of the delays and adjustments. It wasn't the best interim statement underneath the Indian award. They are late to complete on two fronts.

That said. I think it's now very clean and they have a stack of cash. Egypt is going to contribute cash, even if the market wants to value the asset at around £80m.

I don't see much downside, fundamentally, at all.

They are using the update to try and flush though. It will be back at 200p by month end. Mark my words.

Reasonably fair assessment (hold with a price target of 215p)

The company has a lot of potential here and i'd strongly favour a move north, however, it needs to get some of these deals delivered.

The next asset news could be the company maker though, and it could be a big one.

Market has been brutal towards good news but I don't think it will persist. Egypt is still a producing asset and we have significant cash/expertise/premium listing to add an exciting asset.

Company does need to close out some deals though, too many in the air at once.

Doesn't look to be, certainly no mention of it on the presentation.

Looks like we've found a short-term level, though I'm sure there is some II activity going on based on the size of some of the transactions.