Member Info for Ant1986

Massively oversold now - back to 400p+ this month I reckon.

I'm in agreement, should be done and dusted by end of November, before Air India sale.

No, they cannot just bolt on a decision that large, it would take a separate discussion because they have to provide an indemnity to the GOI, which I'd imagine requires a shareholder vote.

There is a lot going on at Cairn. The farm out of Mexico and drill campaigns in the north sea. Drill planning for Egypt. GOI tax rebate. Next asset purchase. This vote of North Sea.

The BOD must be feeling it!

My calcs are pretty cautious if anything. The gap between NAV and SP is huge given the cash portion. I hate ramping takeover speculation but it does beg the question.

Of course,if India falls over, which I do not expect, things change significantly.

What is EVERYTHING else?

$106m net cash (all debt accounted for)
$300m+ Egypt Asset
$105m exploration program
$200m oil in Mexico
Assets in Israel
Future income from North Sea

All this on a FTSE250 company. It's far too low at 190p.

First thing.

Know that news we knew was coming, it's here.

Kept saying, $1,060m India. North sea $75m. North sea minimum payment within 24 months $30m.

Those two things alone cover 171p of the share price.

20p (£100m) for EVERYTHING else. Nuts.

Sorry, $80m, not $100m

It's variable, but we are well on track for $100m this year, using $70 a barrel for the year average.

No, but then I'm just not that worried. It will happen.

I think somewhere between 235-250p is fair for now but with a good investment/drill result/farm out we'll be looking at more very soon. Not really sure how we've stuck around 190p for so long.

Do you have a calculator?

I see the punchline is hilarious, yesterday morning on a 3p dip in oil we go to 178p (-12p) and on a return to $82 oil we go up to 190p (+12p)

Crazy swings. Big shake attempt.

On the same page, I cannot see the Cairn board needing to write in block capitals and inside the lines here. It's a press statement saying to the world that India is a safe place to invest and we want your cash. Cairn and GOI have colluded in the end and got a happy medium.

I would hope/expect to see something from our BOD by month end.

The pressure is on India to look like a changed nation, ready to welcome FDI and trade deals. Not in there interest to mess about for months on end. Besides, the maximum length of time under law is 120 days.

I say nation, I don't hold account the public of India, I really mean the government, which as us Brits know, is entirely different!

Oil price climbs 5p and we add 0p. Falls 2.5p and we lose 7p.

Fun and games this morning. Takeover looms, surely.

Feels like the share price is being held to allow a transfer.

Most stocks down today, we'll do well to hold up, but oil is about the only vogue area, and those about to take receipt of $1,060m ;)

Taken from Cairn's interim transcript:

"Turning now to the proposed sale of our UK producing assets, just to remind you of the transaction terms, the firm consideration is $460 million at the effective
date of 1st January 2020, and the interim period adjustment for the 18 months
to 30th June this year stood at $273 million. Then there's the contingent
consideration payable when Brent is about $52 a barrel over the five years 2021
to 2025. This contingent consideration is uncapped, but to illustrate, it would pay
out around an additional $175 million at $70 Brent. And that payment profile is
front-loaded. So, if current oil prices continue for the remainder of this calendar
year, the payment for 2021 would be around about $75 million."

I'd suspect there is an accumulation going on. I thought the spread was very close and stable, today, which would indicate an agreed transfer price, potentially.

In terms of impact on SP, I have no idea.

Leaning towards more positive than negative though.

After close and not UT...