Member Info for Ant1986

Pretty much bang on, other than $35m of NS asset sale is deferred until next year.

Not sure about Egypt inflow, there is obviously inflow, but I'm treating that as a bonus for H2 numbers. They refused to be drawn on it in the call, probably because they want to see it reach the higher 50k before giving guidance.

Still, trading well down on those predictions, eh?

I've just had a note back form Cairn IR and am seeking clarity on this set on calculations below. They have confirmed H1 cash position DOES NOT include North Sea or Egypt transactions.

$341m cash end H1

+$1060m from Indian tax return
+ $187m North Sea Asset sale ($460m consideration - $273m interim cashflow adjustment)
+$20m returned maintenance costs from conclusion of north sea asset sale
- $302 Egypt costs (granted only $121m is equity)
-$125m in exploration/maintenance

Before special dividend = $1,181m ?

This would be £855m all in cash but leave no valuation for $302m producing asset or any exploration success previous or potential. It also wouldn't factor in returns from North Sea (though must be offset with the opposite arrangement already in place).

Total buy at 190p!

It is very sloppy and half-arsed, agreed.

Well as of today it looks like Neptune and HBR are going to be the same company via a merger.

Apologies, number slightly wrong there, £950m not £920m. Still - a FTSE250 company trading at a discount to cash? Eh!!

Sigh.

$1.4bn cash now valued at £920m (firm 10% below actual value of cash)

Assets/exploration worth zero.

And in terms of timeline, we have until Friday to decide what to do about Air India (10th). I'd like to see an RNS with agreement before then.

If this does materialize, I doff my cap for your vision.

Turn the screen off day as far as the SP goes. I've often got over enthusiastic about discoveries but very surprised at the reaction to cash coming in. Have bought more as I see multiple plates spinning that can add a lot of value. Even if no one is interested in cash.

...of upcoming drills - https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/article/14209871/cairn-in-north-sea-farmin-talks-with-deltic

While the SP is disconnected to cash, I have to keep reminding myself this is a FTSE250 company with $1.4bn cash, a producing gas asset, oil discoveries, operates in multiple jurisdictions, history of returning cash to shareholders, has upcoming drills and more on the horizon. Added to that, it's working towards net zero.

Might not have exploded on cash news but there are lots of positive moving parts here, only takes a couple and you're adding 20/30p to the share price for each.

I wouldn't worry about that, it will be already thought about and covered.

The buyback should be very interesting with the share price where it is and gap in NAV. Very confident we'll see 15-20% rise from here.

OK.

Noted, two wrongs don't make a right, it's true! $60m.

Made me chuckle but agree!

You're entitled to your view.

£60M is unaccounted for in the presentation and was assumed FX fees but Simon said this was not true. Just rounded.

The timeline I could sense Simon wanting to say next week or something but they just cannot say it officially.

The mcap vs buy back is substantial, hence needing permission. A lot of the companies shares/liquidity will be sucked away.

Ultimately the NAV is much greater than the market values the company.

The call strongly suggested money would be in the account VERY soon. No reason to think this will go on or be retracted now.

Ys, in the call he said that was a mistake.

Valued at £977m.

Cash is $341m
Payment is $1.06bn

$1.4bn or £1bn cash total.

Assets valued at absolutely zero.

Disappointing initial market response, didn't expect 211p down to 194p.

I listened to the analyst call and it was confirmed the buy back program was in part proposed because of the disconnect between NAV and SP.

Was not expecting something so well progressed and positive. Ticks everywhere!

Think the market is going to really like this one!!

I wouldn't be surprised if I read that verbatim in tomorrow's interim statement too.