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I think this is still cheap. A lot has progressed since the first news broke and is looking far more certain now.

The company are in dialogue and it does seem small details being sorted now. I still strongly believe all this has been agreed beforehand.

And by rouge I mean rogue...haha

"The government is also in touch with companies on the rules and the undertaking to be given before these are finalised. Regular discussions have been held with representatives of companies including Cairn on the settlement, the official said. The government will announce the rules after discussions to ensure that they are not cumbersome but address the concerns of all stakeholders, he said."

Sounds positive to me.

Interesting mention of 8,000 crore - suggests $1.2bn not $1bn - which is a material uplift.

Just reading this article https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/policy/retro-tax-govt-pads-up-against-future-claims/articleshow/85443251.cms

Seems to me it's less about it being agreed now and more the detail. Clearly they are concerned about rouge shareholders going after the full amount.

I say rouge, I do understand some shareholders disgust with the government actions, I just don't believe getting the full amount is how this game is won.

Probably getting a bit leaky now as to the terms agreed.

I absolutely see this being done quickly!

Because of the case in Paris, there is a good chance sovereign immunity won't wash, but I'm no expert at all.

This is perhaps more telling...

Last week, the upper house of Indian's Parliament approved legislation that would prevent the government from making retroactive tax assessments, undoing the measure at the center of the Cairn case and a similar dispute between India and telecommunications giant Vodafone. On Monday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was quoted by Indian media as saying rules for ending the retroactive tax would be finalized soon.

Attorneys for the Indian government didn't respond to requests for comment Monday.

An attorney representing Cairn in the U.S. case declined to comment to Law360.

A representative of Cairn Energy didn't respond to a request for comment.

Spokespeople for India's government couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Read more at: https://www.law360.com/articles/1413002?copied=1

Was held on Friday.

Some key takings...

The case turns in part on the New York Convention, formally the United Nations' Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards. It requires courts of contracting states to allow private agreements for arbitration and to recognize and enforce resulting awards from other contracting states.

Because the convention empowers U.S. courts to enforce such awards, Cairn is seeking to have the D.C. court ensure that the company can collect payments due since 2014 plus interest. In Friday's brief, the attorneys representing India bolstered their argument by stating that "the New York Convention never even mentions sovereign immunity, let alone any waiver."

The whole market is having a big sell-off today (for understandable reasons)

News from an hour ago...

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said officials from her ministry are in discussions with Cairn Energy Plc and Vodafone Plc on the closure of retrospective tax cases, refund and settlement.

Earlier this month, Parliament passed a bill to scrap all tax demands made using the 2012 retrospective tax legislations. The bill provides for government refunding the retro tax to companies, provided all legal challenges are withdrawn.

Sitharaman said the rules that will lead to the scrapping of the retrospective tax demands made on companies such as Cairn and Vodafone will be framed soon."

We should learn more (officially) I think. GOI outlining full details of tax rollback.

I've discounted that news too. This all feels end game to me and sorted in advance. We'll find out our fate next week.

I also think we'll see 200p :)

Have a good weekend folks!

At this stage and years down the line, I think $1bn is a decent result. That said, I'm a recent shareholder so have a different position to some.

From a legal stand point the experts claim the Paris agreement is very significant and transposable.

"(vi) With the speed at which Cairn Energy is approaching courts across the globe and also getting favourable orders, it might be too late in the day for the government to enter into a golden handshake.

Reports suggest that Cairn Energy has reached out to the government for an amicable settlement, and same is reciprocated by the government. If this is true, we feel that without any further delay, a settlement should be worked out, saving the government from facing the brunt on a larger scale and losing out on future economic opportunities with multinational corporations."

It's going to shake on a 5% uptick but it's not worth it to me to miss the RNS and a 30/40+ point move north - too much of a gamble! For balance, it could also go the other way on a horror RNS. Play your own game :D

After 7 years I feel this ongoing arbitration issue is all but over, plus we've just entered into safe exploration waters alongside the Egyptian assets. All looking up, including the SP!

Shaping up now - £2.20-2.30 is my call on news.

DK, I understand, however, if you look at the chest pumping going on, they would have to be dumb as hair to have not already got an agreement with Cairn beforehand.

Thunder, on the same page as you, clearly.

I think you're missing the public narrative. Cairn has stated previously they are open to a settlement and India couldn't because of the current law.

Now the law has been changed (to match the informal agreement with Cairn in my view) and voted through, Indian officials have gone on record as being in dialogue with Cairn for this first time.

I mean this all looks insanely stupid, otherwise, especially given the present climate.

When the country has been hit hard by Covid and requires foreign investment to help restart the economy, I doubt this will be drawn out. Drawing it out impacts investors. This will be sorted and I wold imagine all conversations are concluded.

$1bn in the bank for Cairn is a good result right now. The company will be debt free, already has a decent cash pos and its assets are inline with carbon objective. A £725m injection right now is ideal and helps this FTSE250 company reinstate itself as serious.