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The company has a lot to report on in this quarter, for every day that passes, the less space between updates and that will provide one almighty catalyst for the share price.

If you were looking at a takeover, it would make sense for a bid to launch sooner rather than later. And that's not to say one will happen.

Brent, flying; and our rebate could arrive in days. Surprising reaction but happy to take advantage of the latency.

I think Cairn will have probably worked closest with the Indian Government here, so we will hopefully be across the line in no time. Could even be done before the end of October and buy back vote for early December.

I optimistic we will see a shift north now. Must value assets accordingly, especially producing assets.

India $1,060m
Year End Cash $106m
Egypt Asset $302m
Brent premium $75m
Rest of assets $50m

= $1,593m /$1.36 = £1,171 or £2.34 a share

Nothing to account for $32m back from NS asset purchase or the $100m potential Brent premium. Nothing in for Deltic drill results. Nothing in for Egypt discoveries. Nothing in for potential asset/leveraged asset purchase.

Should shoot past 200p now, hopefully towards 230p for a start.

Enjoy your weekend guys.

Retrospective tax settlement: Companies will have to indemnify the Indian government

Synopsis
The Central Board of Direct Taxes notified the final rules for settlement of retrospective cases after incorporating certain changes following comments from stakeholders on draft rules, issued on August 28.
By ET BureauLast Updated: Oct 02, 2021, 07:45 AM IST
Companies looking to settle their retrospective tax disputes would have to commit to indemnify the Indian government against any future claims in relation to their tax disputes.

The indemnity and commitment to not seek any damage from the Indian government or its affiliates will have to be furnished by the company as also any other interested party, the government said in the final rules notified late Friday. Companies will have to file a declaration with the income tax authorities along with a board resolution or legal authorisation besides an indemnity bond, the rules said.

The Central Board of Direct Taxes notified the final rules for settlement of retrospective cases after incorporating certain changes following comments from stakeholders on draft rules, issued on August 28.

"......the declarant and all the interested parties shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Republic of India and Indian affiliates from and against any and all costs...," the notification said.

They will have to file a claim within 45 days. The relevant principal commissioner of income tax has to give a certificate accepting or pass an order rejecting the claim in 15 days from receipt of the application, implying that the process can be completed in 60 days.

Once a tax refund claim is accepted, the companies will have to fulfill the specified condition including the withdrawal of all legal cases within 60 days. This period can be extended by another 60 days, implying that cases should be settled in maximum six months.

Cases could be settled quickly
Since the rules have been issued after detailed feedback from companies, it is likely that the cases could be settled quickly.

The government had passed the Taxation Laws (Amendment) Act 2021 in the Monsoon session of parliament to settle retrospective tax cases, nullifying demands raised on transactions prior to May 28, 2012, which is when the controversial law came into force.

The law provides a mechanism for settling litigation, including disputes at international forums, with Cairn Energy, Vodafone and 15 others. The government will withdraw all tax demands levied retrospectively and refund taxes collected, without interest and penalty.

These companies can now settle these cases with the government under the framework within 30-60 days.

I see this as largely positive, because it's a weight off the government, and makes even more sense to close the tax matter with us. They won't want to complicate this sale because I think we have a stronger hand in New York than some would believe.

Decks will be clear very soon.

Very big quarter we've just entered, a lot is about to happen. Hopefully we'll all prosper!

I recall one analysts desperate to understand cashflow but the company wouldn't reveal until year end/start of 2022 (to present optimal imo).

So yes,I think we're being valued at very little as a result until some certainty appears.

Reckon we'll see it go higher than 211p this time and hold? Thought this might start to climb back there before and possible even dip on news. Could be a strong move north coming based on volume and direction. Should big buys below 180 last week and yesterday at 184p.

Mukesh Aghi, President of USISPF believes that India could be a big beneficiary of the China+ strategy of companies around the world. He also added that the Indian government's decision to change the retrospective taxation law sent a positive signal to the investor community.

"I would like to compliment the government of India for changing the retrospective tax. It has sent a very positive signal to the investor community that India will not go back to the retro tax itself. From an FDI perspective, our estimate shows that if India is going to be a USD 5 trillion economy, then it needs on average USD 100 billion investment on an annual basis over the next 10+ years itself."

And if that's not signal enough, financial bids open for Air India, today and sale agreed by 15th Oct.

So, not the time to fall on your face and go back on Cairn.

It's done, the SP is crazy given that. £100m value for the actual company and its cash, aside from India payment. Absolute slam dunk buy at 180p!!

We should witness the following...

1. $1,060m Indian Government tax 'refund'
2. Dividend payment
3. Sale of NS assets
4. $75m payment from Brent performance
5. First drill with Deltic/Jaws
6. Drilling on Egyptian assets
7. News on asset purchase?
8. Buybacks beginning
9. Sight of any suitor for the company?
10. New BOD?

A lot to drive the SP from here.

At least we've gained several million due to the FX move in USD...

Agree with much of your post.

I also think we are wide open for a takeover.

Well, inside 6 weeks we should have the means to buy a pretty sizable asset and still operate in Egypt, Mexico, UK and Israel. Even to do that concurrently shows openness to multiple jurisdictions.

Regards the North Sea sale falling through, could be worse things to happen...

Absolutely ripping higher. If nothing else, the $75m from North Sea is a banker now. Mexico farm out more attractive too.

Said to mark my words...running a little low on time but just wait until the Indian government release the rules. Back over 200p.

Has apparently moved from 210p to 235p - can anyone confirm?

Have you bought back in, Seav?;)

Not much going on volume wise, today. All awaiting news on several fronts - India, farm out of Mexico, North Sea Sale and Egypt completion.

If you consider the extension/stay requested by the two parties in relation to the Air India case, it provides a loose timeframe. And I would expect the money in the bank and all sorted, before Cairn would drop that.

Yes, another £621k through. I think we are seeing a transfer of ownership here. Price feels very manipulated, so expect a big shift. Reckon we'll see 179/180p today.