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My take on all / or some Q2 figures being incorporated in H1 is the same as HZ view
If all production has been incorporated in H1 then there can't be any projections as all the production figures must have been known. The fact that the word "projections" was used in the RNS shows that ALL the productions figures have not been incorporated.
The problem is we don't know how much of Q2 production was incorporated ie most of it , a bit or none of it. We also don't know how much Gold is unsold from production in Q2.
Q2 figures may all be very disappointing, or ok or fantastic, but until we get the unequivocal Q2 figures with amount of unsold Gold stated etc we can't make a judgment call on Q2 IMHO
But it does appear IMHO we have not had the FULL Q2 figures incorporated in H1 due to this statement....
"with PROJECTED figures for this second quarter on target."
Well, that's my take any way :)
VB
Yet again another deliberate mischaracterisation of what I actually said.
You conveniently, again, missed out my main point. AS I clearly stated, at the time, my prediction was based on Q2 income results being as I predicted..
We havnt had Q2 results. And when we do they may or may not be as I thought they would be.
Looking at your snidey comments and posting history, not just on this share, you really are a nasty piece of work.
Filtered
And why wouldnt you flip.
Her calcs, assumptions and analysis seems very robust and logical
It's not as if she typing random words and hoping they may, with a bit of luck, make a coherent sentence :)
Is now same value as the price we paid for Manica ($12.5m) BEFORE there was one ounce of Gold being mined so zero profit and when POG was substantially less than now.
And MC is just 70% of sale price that was agreed for it, again with zero profit and no mine built (although we didnt sell)
After what has happened its understandable sp has fallen sharply (rightly so) but negative sentiment has now taken hold and there is a massive mismatch between fundamentals and valuation IMHO.
That will correct its self , but not to sure when?
Maybe 5 mins after CB retires !
I honestly believe CB's legacy and previous misdirection is now holding SP back.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/disposal-of-manica-gold-project-for-us175m-e2l0lbeow2nube4.html
Without trying to be morbid, he's 80 next month so his life expectancy cant be much more than 4 or 5 years. His health and ability to do the job will be shorter, so I can't see him being able to continue for more than say 3 years?
He talks as if hes 50 re future timescales ie talking about the situation in say 2027 . Will he be around then !?
It does strike me he is trying to quickly buy as many lottery tickets as possible so he can leave this game with a bang and leave a legacy and reputation.
To be fair, I think he has already secured his legacy and reputation - just not in the way he would have wanted :)
Andy
Thanks for your thoughts. Not a million miles away from my calcs
I think 2000oz a month and $900 oz profit is more likely
so
So share of profit = 23% x $900 x 2000oz = c$414k = £340K (x 0.82).
So not that different. £340k to £400K a month should be the area ??
Last 2 quarter updates were released 9th and 6th 3 months after the period ended.
Maybe we will get Q2 between 6 and 9th of October?? ie next week or a week on Monday??
back of *** packet calcs (and not that scientific) .........
it looks as though q2 production will be circa 66% greater than q1 from looking at last few rnss
if so the profit should be about £1.03m in q2. so about £350k a month profit
that is what i expected . but it would be nice to have that confirmed :)
Good news
"Based on the assumption that Fair Bride operates within its targeted parameters and no new business is consummated, the Directors do not anticipate the need for funds to be raised in the twelve-month period from the date of authorising the consolidated information"
Bad news.
No Q2 results which should be good to very good. We got this bit
"results are improving significantly and production for the three months ended 30 June 2023 ("Q2 2023") are expected to show a marked improvement with plant throughput increasing from 30,000 tonnes per month in Q1 2023 to current nameplate capacity of more than 40,000 tonnes per month."
But no hard numbers.
We will need those numbers for any significant sp increase.
"A couple of 500K sells ?"
No. One 500K sell and one buy
1.3p is a buy
about same number of buys and sells
if there was a leak of news (good or bad) we would not be at this volume :)
Andy
Thanks for that.
“Also H1 royalty earned was c$700k so @ 3.375% and assumed $1900 per oz => c340kg by my reckoning for H1 production”
Assuming my 70kg is correct for all three months in Q2 that’s 210kg total for Q2. That would be 66% higher than Q1. So Q1 production would be circa 42kg a month = 126 kg in Q1 total
126 + 210 = 336kg for H1
Not far off your 340kg H1 prediction.
Others may disagree, but I think that will see the sp in the 2p's
"Simply Andrew, yesterday you were predicting/anticipating a 50% rise in XTR`s SP within the next 3 weeks or so”
Conveniently missed out my main point. That’s assuming the Q2 income results are as I believe they will be.
You may be right that even £400K a month profit will not do much for this share and that all your concerns and criticisms of the company are valid ie It’s a dog and will be for years sitting at this sp level. I just don’t understand why they need to keep popping back here on a regular occasion to tell us how bad this is.
Well actually , I probably do understand why you keep doing that 😊
Billy
If you have a look at VB's posting history, that will tell you all you need to know about his motivation for making that
"non-sequitur" post.
No doubt another embittered ex holder :)
What's coming up is, probably, very good Q2 results from FB and an SP rise well above 2p IMHO
Last few years Half yearly has always been released on 30 September . That's a Saturday this year so could be Friday 29 sept or Monday 2 October. Not long to go.
I'm expecting sp to be above 2p by early October after these results.
Why?
See my previous posts and thoughts a month or so ago...
AIMHO
DYOR
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-q1-2023-gold-production-update-6j1hf2jkaktvc3m.html
Just had another look at Q1 results and there were a few clues in there on what we could expect for Q2.
Plant throughput
"Clear indications are that post the heavy rains, results are improving significantly and Q2 2023 is showing a marked improvement with plant throughput increasing from 30,000 tonnes per month in Q1 2023 to current nameplate capacity of more than 40,000 tonnes per month
May 2023 throughput was 43,200 tonnes per month
Grade
"A significant amount of additional close-spaced drilling was completed during Q1 2023 specifically to improve grade control and the ability to better predict the Run of Mine grade that could be anticipated by the processing plant. This work had an almost immediate impact on improvement in the run of mine grade with the average rising from 1.2g/t Au in February Q1 2023 to a current reported grade for May Q2 2023 of approximately 1.8g/t Au"
So for month of May 1.8g/t at 43,200 tpm = 77.76KG = 2500 troy ounces = 575 oz for Xtract for May
Assuming $1900 POG and $900 Cost that's $575K Pre tax profit. Boa Esperanza and Guy Fawkes usually add about another $50K a month so that's circa $625K a month. Obviously that's assuming April and June will be the same as May and they may not be, but that gives an indication of the pre tax profit.
If April and June are similar to May, that would mean Q2 results would be circa 66% better than Q1's. Q3 Results are usually the best quarter due to the very dry period, so we should at least equal or better Q2 results.
I think when we get Q2 results the sp will start to appreciate and continue to do so as we get Q3 results.
I just don't know if that SP appreciation means 2p or 3p.....or higher???
AIMHO
DYOR
In recent years H1 results have always been released 30 September . That is a saturday so I would expect them to be released Monday 2 October??
I would also expect the sp to be over 2p a few days after they are released and after the market starts to see, with some certainty, what the FB income / profit is
AIMHO
"All your posts are suggesting BR will never be sold."
FFS. I've never said or implied that and said many times I think BR will be sold at a higher POC.
Dani (or whatever you are calling your self). I've assumed you were a little eccentric or just a wind up, but it appears you are just trolling this board for a reaction.
Finally filtered ! (It took me long enough)
HZ
I think you are being a tad emotional and hypocritical when you say I was making a "personal attack " on you.
It wasnt a personal attack, just my view based on your comments over the years. From looking at the number of thumbs up my post got, many seem to agree with me :)
No more of a personal attack than your view that I am being "narrow minded" or your comment about me throwing my "rattle out of my pram"
with respect though.....
"What is wrong with bowing out eventually leaving a company that could theoretically expand exponentially under its growth strategy"
Nothing wrong with that. A very sensible approach. But I dont think that's what CB wants because if it was he would IMHO just focus on FB expansion. That could be his legacy, and a good one, but that doesnt seem to be enough for him. That's my point !
"Just wondering if you are not serious about the longevity and growth of the company anymore and are just wanting out now?"
With respect HZ that's just typical of your response to any view which doesnt conform to the "sunlit uplands" view. Why would I want to leave just before the Q2 results are coming out which I have already said I think will be very good and should see the sp nearer 3p than 2p.
I didnt say this was a bad deal but my view was that I think the FB income could have been used in a better way. Not an overly damming comment and I also acknowledged that this deal may work out. Added to my previous view a month ago, of good Q2 results soon and an sp above 2p then, it is rather a strange conclusion to come to that I "want out".
You seem to treat this investment like a football fan supports his favourite team. Always supporting the team irrespective of the results and showing unwavering loyalty and fiercely protective against any slight criticism.
I'd rather take a more analytical and less emotional approach to my investments !
Its high risk as we may spend $2m and get nothing for it. Just like the previous other similar ventures. CB's track record on these "lets have punt" projects is poor.
I'm not saying we can't do both projects (FB and exploration) , but focusing on the less risky project first would be my preferred option. Well, until income was higher.
Then again, if I was nearly 80 and knew I only had another few years left in this game to hit the big one, then I'd probably do what CB has just done.
After all, its not his own money he's gambling with :)
"I left the AGM with the understanding that XTR could elect not to contribute to the sulphide plant and then we would continue to get 23% "
Correct James
IMHO I would prefer we put all our money in that less risky option first. I'm not saying this new venture is a terrible idea but I think there are better risk / reward options ie FB upgrade
As I say, maybe this time CB gets lucky but many past ventures like this have not ended well. I just get the impression CB knows he's running out of time before he makes the next big discovery so will be buying more lottery tickets in his last few years to end on a big win.