Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
James
What you are saying makes sense.
But If you had a very short time horizon then what would be the best approach then?
ImHO CB knows time is running out for him (81 this year) and he now is going down the route of quickest monetisation and sp appreciation rather than most sensible and long term approach
Cygnus
My understanding is that ARCM licence is the AA one (on the map) to the right of AFP licence as you look at map. Its the left one of the three bottom centre licences
That's my understanding from listening to ARCM info but happy to be corrected.
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/3942C_1-2024-2-7.pdf
"Due to CB's suite of companies in the Zambian NW corner I have spread my investment in XTR, AFR & Galileo"
I've done the same, and for the same rationale I've also added ARCM so my portfolio.
I take the view the more lottery tickets you buy then the more chance you have of winning :)
It look like CB takes the same view !
Since last update on 1 June Alex Terry has again increased his holding from 56.5M to nearly 60M
Well at least someone has confidence in CB :)
https://xtractresources.com/shareholders/
"WHY sell the house silver to only go back to square one with the end game of producing"
Because manica was not a big enough discovery for CB's ego or kudos. He wants to go out with another Kiwara - even if it means taking more risk with shareholders money
This could be one of the best things CB has ever done, or another failed Copper exploration play like the previous 4 bets
CB is a gambler - but happy to use other peoples money to gamble !
NicetoMichu
When I saw your user name I assumed you had posted that on XTR BB. I got excited that sp had gone to 2.5 p :)
I agree with your views re ARC. I have been slowly buying over last 4 months and have 1.2M and will keep adding sub 3p
Risk reward looks very good but, as you say, anything can happen !
HZ
You do seem to try and find any excuse to defend CB !
Yes, POC did fall around the proposed sale time but that is not the main reason for the sp collapse. Maybe 20% of the reason. Many of CB's failed predictions or "statements of fact" had nothing to do with the economic conditions ie
We know we have the grades and I'm not worried about the grades
We were biting our nails re 2mt but now with Ascot find we dont have to.
This is a tier 1 asset
His predictions / comments did not meet reality. If POC was still at April2022 high levels before the fall, Bushranger would offer virtually zero profit. CB was talking about $8K to $8.5K POC as being the brake even point in the interviews
With no covid, no fall in POC, no change in economic conditions, no war the sp would still have fallen as reality and results was seen to be nothing like CBs comments and predictions. .
With better economic conditions and no fall in POC, we may have fallen to 2p not 1p
"Last week’s placing was for a specific reason – to buy a piece of kit at a price that the company felt was too good to miss - which we will communicate when it is complete. "
I look forward to that news being RNS'd. It would seem unbelievable to think that a substantial amount of money would be spent by the BoD on equipment unless they were 100% certain finance was going to be approved and the mine was going to be built.
Well that's my view.
I look forward in seeing that RNS.
.
For me its not so much criticism of CB's exploration strategy, but the BS he came out with re Bushranger. and now lack of trust in what he says
Remember what he said re Bushranger:
We know we have the grades and I'm not worried about the grades
This wont be a death my a thousand lashes (re sale)
Looking to make a sale in a few months
If they offer me 10p I'll tell em they can stick it
We were biting our nails re 2mt but now with Ascot find we dont have to.
This is a tier 1 asset
etc
Many didnt sell at 6p as CB had given all of us great confidence that it was going much higher after the imminent sale.
If you can't trust a word the CEO says then it doesnt give you much confidence in him delivering.
That doesnt mean to say he wont deliver though
Whoever is selling , it can't be because of the poor assay results as they have not started drilling yet !
The temptation is to think someone knows something we don't. I suspect anyone selling may be a distressed seller or because of one of many other reasons.
I'm happy to wait and see what the drill results show, good or bad, but the point is no PI knows more than anyone else at the moment.
Pi's control much less than 50% of total holding
It is certain to be approved
"The agreement xtr. entered into with MMP was perhaps sieve like"
No perhaps about it IMHO. I guess CB now realises that he did not make it water tight so MMP can manipulate "costs" in many ways and are doing so !
$1000+ AISC?? Hmm. Really?
This is on CB and he probably now thinks better to not fight a losing battle, take the easy option and leave it.
That added to the fact his time horizon is now very near due to his age, makes sense for him to sell up and go for a cash grab with no hassle.
Last throw of the dice on Zambia and see if he gets lucky.
(PS In the old days that pod cast would have seen the sp rise. Not now. CB has now lost his magic BS powers ! He now has to deliver actual results for the sp to rise. !)
Is that correct?
Two £90K buys.
"...would you rather spend the money on our existing site that we know has potential or go rainbow chasing with the money and have no money and no asset in 2027 "
Most SH, I believe, will go for first option. Play the long game.
But by 2027 CB will be circa 84. I doubt CB will be around in a professionally capacity by then and there is every chance he will have "shuffled off this mortal coil" by then
Why should CB care about what's best for long term planning. It is irrelevant to him now !
And he knows it.
SH best interests and CB best interests are now not aligned.
I hardly post here much now as there is not a lot to say. This is bottom draw now - unless CB actually surprises everyone with a successful copper exploration play this year. All his previous exploration punts have failed but maybe he thinks he must get lucky soon :) Unless he gets lucky with exploration, I cant see the sp doing much now until POC hits $10K when bushranger value moves from being worthless to potentially profitable.
I think some are overthinking the manica sale rationale. The manica sale imho supports my previous view that CB knows time is running out for him (81 this year) . He has now accumulated a lot of cash quicker than he would have done under the original deal and he can now gamble it all over next 2 years on 9 Red and 15 Black on the roulette wheel, and hope he finally can make a name for himself and get the kudos from his peers.
Its not about the money for CB - its about the acclaim of finding a discovery before he leaves the stage. He wants to leave a legacy and his current legacy is not one that he wants !
It's a bit like someone selling all their assets and gambling it to see if they can be a millionaire. Madness to do that if we did it, but as CB is gambling with our money then very sensible approach from CB's perspective !
If he was in his 50s and had more time I think he would have kept manica and developed it long term and we would have seen 2p after official profit was announced in the final years accounts.
I will leave on some positive news. I haven't sold any as I think POC will ensure Bushranger will be very profitable and will, eventually, be sold but not for anywhere as much as CB implied and in much much longer time scales. 4 to 6p is my thinking but that may take another 2 years.
I'll see you again in 2 years or when POC hits $10K !
"They are going to need the equipment anyway"
I hope you are right about that.. If that is correct then that, to me anyway, implies we will definitely get finance by some means at some point - even if it is not via bond financing.
Irrespective if they finance this through bond financing or a Plan B alternative method, I still think an RNS stating we have bought the equipment and machinery implies finance, by whatever means, would have been agreed. That's why I see that RNS as pivotal (IF that RNS it ever comes)
That's my take anyway and I accept some may see it differently and that I may have got that completely wrong !
Hi Trek
I take your point and understand that lead times could be long. However, my main point was that IF they announced purchase of equipment I would assume that would indicate the bond financing is 100% certain to happen (whenever officially announced). If not they would have spent possibly $1M on machinery / equipment that will never be required.
The purchase of equipment would seem to confirm (to me anyway) bond financing is certain - whenever is is officially announced, That's why I see RNS confirming purchase of machinery as so important and not just because of long lead times (as you rightly said).
The BoD are a tad overly optimistic in timescales (arnt they all in Aim) but I assume the PXC Bod are not complete idiots who would commit $0.5 to $1m on equipment that we may never need !
Well I'm hoping they are not complete idiots :)
If we do get an RNS confirming hat we have spent hundred's of thousands of $ on machinery, then I would assume (maybe naively) that that implies Bond financing is a certainty.
Why would you commit that amount of funds on machinery unless you know Bond financing was definitely going to happen and soon?
That RNS, if it came, would be very significant
Of course AIMHO
Thank for your thoughts Stanley
One of the most annoying things about yesterday was that they could have done this raise at a much higher price very recently. As you say poor planning which implies a panic move for some reason?
Not sold any and even added a little yesterday but my trust in the Bod has been dented now. Looking at the number of buys yesterday many still seem confident this will end well?
Tbh I would be happy for some of the raise to be used to keep the lights on as interest rates are going to come down this year and into 2025 so if we have to go into "care and maintenance" for 12 months to get a better deal later, then that's fine with me.
Always seemed strange to try and get financing at this difficult time when the financial environment should be so much better by end of the year.
I reckon they may have more than one option and are trying to get the best deal, which may mean taking more time and originally planned.
Unless they are telling lies in the RNS, there is more than one option or interested party
AIMHO