Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
The FB income is not gong to be so much that by using some of it on other projections it wont have an impact on FB development.
CB has mentioned £8M (I think) for the sulphide plant . Id rather all FB income went on that project tbh
I think it a better use of the FB money to go for a less high risk strategy (FB development) which will ensure more income and for longer for FB.
Then go for the treasure hunt approach when FB income is more robust, has doubled after sulphide plant built.
Phase 3 = phase 2
For Phase 1
" Xtract anticipates funding this exploration expenditure from existing resources and current ongoing operational activities."
$2M over 24 months is about £65K a month on average so well within anticipated income stream from FB
I suspect phase 3 will require a raise but this will only be done if phase 2 was a success so sp will be much higher then than now.
I'm not saying this is a bad move (or good) but I wish CB would spend the FB income on developing FB tbh and building the sulphide plant. He probably finds that too boring and he will not make a name for himself doing that !
More high risk treasure hunts. May be he will get lucky this time !
Idiot/master investor judgment is transitory
Anyone who sold at 7p was a master investor as sp has crashed since then. However, If SP ever goes above 7p, maybe after a buy-out, or poc hitting $15K in 2 years then they would have been an idiot to sell at 7p
Imagine selling at 7p and taking all that profit, then we did get the buy-out CB implied was soon....we would have made more in that rise than we have lost, on paper, in the fall to 1.5p.
It really is so obvious what you should have done after the event !
I will make my final judgement call (on my investment assessment) when I have sold all shares here, but whatever that call is, I could have done so much better if I had not believed CB so much :)
The half yearly report has always been released on 30 Sept for last three years
Q2 production update often been released on the same day or near this date so it looks very likely that 30 sept will be D -day for both updates.
I guess if anyone thinks the FB Gold production figures will be good then they have the next 6 weeks to buy-in before a potential rerate?
(Not too sure if rerate means 2p, 2.5p or 3p though :)
HZ
I am assuming and hoping that the next quarterly report will contain actual profit made from FB, not just the production figures. I think that is what the market wants to see and not , what could be, financially misleading production figures.
I can't see how the Q2 production figures are not going to be substantially higher looking at Q1 RNS "clues"
That said, the market may be thinking, with good reason, why is there not complete transparency with the income and profit figures? Yes production will be better in Q2 but what does that actually mean to the profit?
Until that doubt is allayed, then the sp may not appreciate. If CB legacy issues were not apparent, then I suspect it would be well over 2p on future assumptions alone.
Well that's they way I say it.
"The market is very much taking a Doubting Thomas attitude to his record of overpromising and under achieving"
Yes it has and understandably so. But Its actually gone too far the other way now IMHO.
The sp went up too far on sentiment and false promises, and now its gone down too far (IMHO) on sentiment and not believing anything that is said...even in an RNS it seems !
"although one can loosely compare it to a weather forecast in that it is based on assumptions that are made at any given time. Once there is a change in the meteorological/ geological picture in this case, then the longer term forecast changes"
Sorry dont agree with that analogy. That gives CB far too much of a "get out"
using that same but better analogy, it would be like the met office giving a forecast of very hot and sunny in January, then saying we've changed our view as its now -5 degrees outside and snowing !
It was never going to be hot and sunny in January !
That was an excellent interview and worth a listen to again, as it clearly shows the utter BS he talked at the time.
Predictions for FB, Eureka and BR. All completely way out and not even close.
"Target date for 2mt or DTm end of April but if we miss it it wont be quarters just a couple of months"
He must have known at the time that a lot of what he was saying (about all the projects) was utter BS, and not just overly optimistic.
You can't believe a word he says.
"When should we expect Q2 results please?"
Last few have been announced just over 3 months after period end, so that would mean early Oct if its the same time period.
CB said at the AGM Q2 would be announced in a couple of weeks.
If CB is correct and can be trusted, then they should be announced anytime now to end of this month.
So I'm going for early October :)
MM's will currently take 1.5m at 1.36p
been a long time since they would take that many in a block.
When you say "They mentioned" I assume you mean CB.
I remember CB saying in November (years ago) we would soon be betting $200K a month income from Eureka by early next year.
I think I'll believe any Kakuyu income when its declared in an RNS !
I'm only believing what I read in an RNS from now on.
I just don't believe a word CB says anymore (outside of an RNS).
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-q1-2023-gold-production-update-6j1hf2jkaktvc3m.html
Just had another look at Q1 results and there were a few clues in there on what we could expect for Q2.
Plant throughput
"Clear indications are that post the heavy rains, results are improving significantly and Q2 2023 is showing a marked improvement with plant throughput increasing from 30,000 tonnes per month in Q1 2023 to current nameplate capacity of more than 40,000 tonnes per month
May 2023 throughput was 43,200 tonnes per month
Grade
"A significant amount of additional close-spaced drilling was completed during Q1 2023 specifically to improve grade control and the ability to better predict the Run of Mine grade that could be anticipated by the processing plant. This work had an almost immediate impact on improvement in the run of mine grade with the average rising from 1.2g/t Au in February Q1 2023 to a current reported grade for May Q2 2023 of approximately 1.8g/t Au"
So for month of May 1.8g/t at 43,200 tpm = 77.76KG = 2500 troy ounces = 575 oz for Xtract for May
Assuming $1900 POG and $900 Cost that's $575K Pre tax profit. Boa Esperanza and Guy Fawkes usually add about another $50K a month so that's circa $625K a month. Obviously that's assuming April and June will be the same as May and they may not be, but that gives an indication of the pre tax profit.
If April and June are similar to May, that would mean Q2 results would be circa 66% better than Q1's. Q3 Results are usually the best quarter due to the very dry period, so we should at least equal or better Q2 results.
I think when we get Q2 results the sp will start to appreciate and continue to do so as we get Q3 results.
I just don't know if that SP appreciation means 2p or 3p.....or higher???
AIMHO
DYOR
Despite a few holders who seemed to have had enough and wanted out after the AGM, the SP is broadly where we started on Monday morning. Bit of U shaped week tbh.
No doubt there are still some that are looking to exit at a higher SP but the fact that they did not take advantage of the ease to sell in bulk for some time this week (MM would take 1.2M for 1.35p today and 1M at 1.3P this week ) shows that many don't see this as a basket case of a share which is only going down. When its as bad as that then its a case of jump out at any price before it falls again.
I would expect the weak hands to fully sell up in the next spike after, possibly, FB income RNS declared or maybe Economic model update? No doubt it will be a bumpy ride with some exiting as the sp moves up.
I still expect this to at least double from this level (at some point) and maybe, with a bit of luck 3 or even 4 bag over next 2 years?
That said, in 2 years time, I doubt many will be looking back and pleased that they didnt sell when sp was 7p last year though :). I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it !
I didnt buy anymore at 7p, but there was no way I was going to sell at 7p after CB's many comments.
It was definitely going into double figures aftter the buy-out wasn't it ??? :)
I'm happy to hold as my bet is its going higher from this level, but I wont be believing anything CB says ever again in an interview.
Lucky
You previously said
" I still hold 2 million shares. ..... trying to sell in volume, is difficult. If I try selling the rest this week, I imagine I'll get an average of 1.3 for them? Maybe less?"
If you want more than the 1.3p you could have got today, then I think you should be joining the "Pump brigade" as you have characterised them :)
Or at least not make posts that could be seen as negative .
Ofc that's assuming you still have any shares left to sell. You may not have.
NtM
Likewise.
I was ready at 1.25 p ASK - then every 0.05p drop
It may still happen but not too sure now. Nearer we get to Q2 results the more unlikely it is that some will sell IMHO
Bashers need to work harder....
now 1.44p to buy
sell 1m at 1.30p
Down 10.5% but 4.3% of that was left over from Friday close due to the u/t trade. Real 10% fall on Friday was shown as 6% due to u/t trade .
So today a real fall of circa 6%. Not great but not the blood bath some thought after some negative comments post AGM.
In late afternoon I could sell 500K at 1.43p. No big sells though.
I will wait until Friday before claiming "panic over" but so far most seem content to stay on board.
Hi james
Sorry I should have been clearer.
I'm looking at a higher POC than currently , hence the 2025 time horizon when POC should be well over $10K.
I'm not saying 3p at todays POC.