Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
O and W
Difference is though we dont know what is under the ground at Zambia. Could be the jackpot or could be nothing and worthless.
Apparently BR is the 10th biggest copper discovery in last 10 years. But unfortunately worthless at current POC .
"Copper spot price is not going to have a direct effect on a valuation for BR"
Sorry HZ dont agree
There are obviously other factors that will determine sale price such as capex and opex (as you have said).
I stand by my view that IF POC was $2K to £3K higher ie $14K not $12K then we would get a significant higher sale price (IMHO of circa double). Albeit nothing like some valuations
I'm not saying that is the sole factor, but would be a significant driver to any valuation. That's why BR's valuation now is Zero.
Jez
You are not missing anything with your SP calculation.
But as I said I dont think we will be getting anything like £150M. If that buy out was correct then by waiting another year or so you would have all your house paid for and have thousands of pounds extra :)
But we wont be getting anything like that offer (IMHO) so its moot point. My thinking is £25M with a circa £50M IF we waited a year or so.
"I for one would prefer the bow wrapped before Christmas 2024, ideally at 10,500/tonne and 100-150m rather than Christmas 2026 and 200-250m."
I dont think we will be getting anything like that deal as that would be 11p at £100M . If those figures were correct we would be getting an additional 11p if we waited 2 years (extra £100m). I doubt many would not go for the extra 2 years for 22p offer!
But I doubt we would be getting more than additional 4p if we waited (Circa £35m). Thats a lot of extra profit to me as my holding is in teens of millions.
I understand that some would have different views.
"Andrew, I think we are all certain the copper price is going one way"
That's why I wouldnt want CB to sell us short too soon. Yes he hasnt got that long in this game left but we are still getting FB money for another 2 years so he must expect to be around for that time period.
My concern is that we get 3p for BR but if we had waited another 12 to 18 months it would have been double that.
I've been here 10 years so an additional 12 months is fine by me (accept others will disagree)
I'd hold fire with the bow just yet.
POC very likely to be hitting $12K over next 12 months and $13K to $15K within 2 years
If you think its hot at todays price then just wait for another 12 months :)
And then again in a further 12 months !
$13K to $15K IMHO within next 2 years.
" towards a huge bet by BHP on a Copper Bull market for years to come ?!"
Yes agreed.
Not sure if this bid by BHP is in its self good or bad for XTR, but the sentiment behind it does seem to support the thesis that copper demand and price, is only one way in the future.
But is the future the next 6 months or 2 years :) ??
" The Bushranger Study concluded that the highest post tax NPV8 of AU$363m (NPV10 - AU$265m) processes ore above 0.10% CuEq at 20mtpa with a sale price of US$11,000/t."
If Copper does go to $15K/t we are going to get more than $20M for BR imho.
Every corporate analyst seems to think $15K a tonne is coming...but the disagreement seems to be on the times scales.
Varies between 2025 2026 2027 or 2028
A long wait if it is 2027+ but I'm sure BR will get sold within those times scales and we will eventually see 4 to 6p again.
Maybe more?
For me, bottom drawer until then
"15,000 dollars per kg in 2025....."
I really hope so. That would be equivalent to approx $15M a tonne
I'm sure BR would be profitable at that level :)
"Let's just hope we're not watching it from the sidelines in a couple of years because PXC still haven't sorted the finance for it!!"
Exactly. How frustrating would that be.
80% chance IMHO it will go as planned.
I would be disappointed and surprised if this did nt hit a £1 within (not by) next 2 years. 40p not so long ago
We'll see
"I would be careful here,"
You kept that view quiet. Why on earth didnt you warn people before before now!
"Realise the bonds aren't going to happen"
Really??
"Our upcoming report will delve into these dynamics and assess the potential for copper prices to surpass historical highs seen in 2022 ($11,000 per ton)."
I would think by end of 2025 we will be above $12K and circa $1K a tonne increase each year taking it to a high of $14K or $15K
All irrelevant here if things don't go to plan with the financing - I'm betting they will though :)
"my only reservation is that a sceptical market will be naturally cautious in getting swept along this time round, the more CB shouts, he will not have a glut of ‘lock down’ newbie traders this time to bedazzle "
That argument works well for LTH but there will be a wave of newbies who are beguiled by CB's sales pitch - and to be fair to CB he is a very good orator.
The only way the potential spike could be halted is if LTh started telling all the newbies what CB was really like and giving words of caution. in believing him
I wonder how many LTH would be doing that as the SP started to climb ? :)
My point is that whatever strategy CB should follow re news release, be it " ram down the throats" or drip feed news, he wont be able to stop himself in doing the former. Maybe down to ego or even deflection tactics for what has happened over last 18 months - but he wont be able to stop himself.
Its in his nature and he wont be changing at nearly 81 ! The fable of the scorpion and the frog springs to mind !
(You can guess which one we are and which one is CB :)
"I'll offer back that If Xtract gets a good result assayed from one drill 'ole, I'd be gutted if Mr Colin Bird didn't shout about it from the rooftops"
There is no way CB could stop himself in doing that - whether he should or shouldnt will be irrelevant as it's in his nature.
TBh if a spike would instigate another raise then fall back as usual , then imho - so what ! Most LTh would be glad of the spike and exit with - possibly some, or even all of their money back !
How many would not sell at 4 p if given the chance over next 2 months?
AIMHO
Hawkander
we have:
Short term : Possibility of sp appreciation when zambia drilling starts (may??) and then further rise if assay results are good
Long term :1 to 2 years waiting for POC to go over $11K and make bushranger worth something
"If bond news comes out then this will 5x pretty quickly. If it doesn’t, then we stay in this range until another financing plan is implemented."
The alternative view is that If we can't get the bonds away this time there may have to be more warrants attached or some dilution to ensure the financing does get approved at next go??
If so I doubt we will be stating above 10p
Finance will happen, but at what cost to current sp? Maybe at no cost to sp but that is not certain yet imho