Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
A more pessimistic view would be to just ignore all the low grade at BR and just assume only the high grade is of any value (I'm not saying that's true but I'm being pessimistic).
This high grade doesnt need ore sorting
192mt at 0.33%cuEq = 0.63m
At very low assumptions of $6K POC used in a buyers calc (it was $7700k POC used for cadia assumptions ) and just 1% inground value, that would work out at $38M value. That's about 3.4p at current 856M shares in issue.
Call it 3p to be even more cautious
FB must be worth 2p min when market actual sees the income results in RNS.
The final return here will not be anything like what CB said and "just" 3 years late (assuming buy-out 2025) !! - but I would not be selling at this price for the above reasons.
To avoid any misunderstanding, I'm not saying that everyone will be making money here as I am aware that 5p is broadly many people's average here- but explaining why I would not be selling at this price.
AIMHO
DYOR
I believe the figure CB mentioned at the meeting was 500k and also a 1m ? Not sure if that was £ or $
I agree that it would seem strange to need a raise for that amount with the FB income coming in. May be thats why CB did not say we would definitely need to raise .
"From what was said by people who were at the AGM, Colin emphasised the need for a further placing to pay for blue sky projects ?."
He didnt say we would definitely need a placing to fund the purchase of any other projects.
He said that he thought we could fund the purchase from income but if something too good to turn down was available we may need to part fund that with a placing. That was my understanding.
I really hope he doesnt go for any new projects but if / when he does the amount of funding will be small beer and that's assuming we cant fund from income. (which is possible)
CB will no doubt be driving up the sp before any placing (If required) or just after good news has been announced so I suspect it will be done above 2p and for circa 5% to 10% .
Thats assuming we do have a placing and that was not stated as definite at the meeting.
That was because of the U/T trade on Friday
Ask / Bid is same as it was just before close on Friday...at the moment
BTTS
Sorry if you thought my post was insulting I didnt mean it that way.
I assumed you were not at the meeting so I apologise
Lucky
I'm sure BTTS is Gwyn on TG.
You did not tell anyone to sell.
You gave your own interpterion of what you heard and stated your views.
Up to everyone to make their own minds up and be responsible for their own decisions.
BTTS
Your decision to sell of course but what I find strange is that you were not at the AGM, as far as I can tell from reading your posts.
This means you're basing your decision on third hand reports, that lack the nuance required and may be wrong or have a different interpretation than if you heard what was said.
I can understand lucky selling up as he was there so he had first hand experience of what was said, but your info could be distorted. You said you sold 750K Friday and will do another 250K tomorrow so thats about £15K sold on nothing more than what an anonymous poster said on a bulletin board?
Not picking on Lucky but he was the only poster who was negative on what he heard at the AGM so I doubt you're selling because of what anyone else said - if so then the same point applies..
Whatever you do I wish you good luck in your next investment.
"I would understand the sentiment around throwing the towel in that many may have at the moment "
Is it really "many" though?
Apart from one attendee, every AGM summary, from those that were there was either neutral outlook or slightly more on the positive side.
As I said on Friday it looks that only 2 sold on Friday after AGM (from their comments) . Majority seemed at least OK with what they heard and no reason to sell up?
No reason to expect a big sell off tomorrow but IF it happens then I suspect many will take the opportunity to add?
AIMHO
What are Blue sky projects?
Blue skies research (also called blue sky science) is scientific research in domains where "real-world" applications are not immediately apparent. It has been defined as "research without a clear goal" and "curiosity-driven science".
“Blue sky projects” are projects that have unbounded and often unrealistic objectives that don’t consider the constraints of the real world that might be applicable to them.
So in other words - lets have a punt on looking over there :) We may get lucky.
Billy. "As for Manica its producing and market has priced this in"
Don't agree that market has priced manica income in. Market is waiting for actual figures from FB to be confirmed in an RNS (Q2 results?) and then will react.
CB's comments don't work anymore - understandably, so his income figures are taken with a pinch of salt now. Market wants proof in an RNS
tbh I don't have much hope of CB's new acquisitions doing much ( I may be wrong) . They will be low cost though.
I still think Bushranger will deliver value (2p to 5p) when sold, but not until 12 to 18 months though.
FB will probably be the cash cow esp after plant modified. 6-8 years of income from now?
Summary - still plenty of upside from this level (IMHO) but nothing like CB's early predictions in value or time scales. Like Ntm, I will be loading up IF sp drops next week.
AIMHO
"Fortunately l think the bad news is largely priced in and there is gold revenue."
Agreed Flipper. The company have never been in a better financial position.
There was nothing said at the AGM that was not already known. No surprises.
It looks like those that have sold out are now trying to get the sp down to a lower entry point :)
I hardly ever post on here anymore as the signal to noise ratio is now not great :) But just seen some of the negative feed back from the AGM
All I can say is that my interpretation of what I heard was nothing like what has been said by some.. This is my interpretation but I guess people could see, or hear, things differently:.
1. No need for a raise unless we move for other assets and that was not in any way certain or soon. A "matter of fact "comment. I didn't get the impression we would raise to do more drilling / exploration. as FB income should cover that.
2. circa 4 years of FB income is most likely but to be over cautious 2 years min was stated. Substantial FB income expected.. My understanding is that we will modify the plant to take sulphides starting next year and do so from FB income. IMHO (Not from AGM) FB will be producing income for a number of years from Oxides then sulphides. It will be a real cash generator IMHO
3. The phrase "disappointing" was used re Bushranger but in the context that it hasnt delivered value sooner. Not that it wont deliver value later say 1 to 2 years time. For once, CB was being honest and not BS
4. End September should be when economic study ready.
IMHO there were no surprises at the AGM and nothing has changed.
I too am very surprised at the big sales just before the close..
It could be that one person (Lucky maybe ??) sold out with 2 big 1m sells, then Backtothesoil got spooked and sold another 750K in batches (according to his post he sold 750K.before close) This accounts for nearly all the late sells by just 2 people.. I don't think BTTS was at the meeting so he may have been playing "follow the leader" after seeing those 2 big sells.. If he was at the meeting I doubt he would have sold.imho
My interpretation is that BR is highly likely to be sold but later than CB original time lines and for less than the "10p I'll tell them to stick it " comment. I assume that's where the "disappointing" comment was coming from but CB did not say how much it would be sold for ( less than 10p is my view). FB income / profit should be declared in an RNS in Q2 results in a few weeks..
My view now not AGM. SP should start to rise then and further on Q3 RNS results imho
As I say, no surprises at the AGM imho and nothing which should cause anyone to start big buying or selling. ALL IMHO.
Final thought, we all want CB to stop the BS and be honest and give reasonable expectations, but when he does that - he gets slaughtered !
GLA
See you again in another few months after Q3 results :) I suspect anyone who sold today may be regretting that decision by then :).
"Its the rampers who claim to be buying that I would be wary of tbh"
The only person who claimed to be buying was me, so I assume thats another snidey dig at me.
I've has enough of this now. You give your honest opinion and be truthful and just get it thrown back as a snidey dig.
All the best guys. I'm off !
Good luck
"BUT no one ever actually declares a TR1 and there is always an excuse, even though lots claim to have well in excess of the 3% threshold."
I've been here years, and I've never seen anyone claim they have over 3%
856M in issue means over 25M shares for 3% and I've never seen anyone on here state that they have that.
If that was a snidey did and me saying I have 4 family isa accounts - I've stated that years ago and would not generate a TR1 if all were in the same account
Not when I have all my holding split into four family individual ISA accounts :)
I'm expecting the sp to start to fall sharply now....
Just had a small top up 200K and with my judgment sp will probably fall :)
If ask goes below 1.25 I'll be doing the same again.
Taking everything into account, this is seriously undervalued imho
AIMHO
Just read on TG someone asking why has more not made of the 450 to 550 a month CB stated - which is now stated AFTER production has commenced so more believable
This is a really good question.
The answer is because of CB. No trust in anything he says, even when its highly likely that he's stating the truth or very near it (according to my own calcs)
Any other co on AIM would see an appreciation in SP. on that news. But CB legacy issues have stopped that until we see that in an RNS
CB is now a liability here, not an asset imho
"CB/XTR need to RNS plant extension plans at Manica, for me it’s not clear how this works commercially e.g. do MMP pay for the capex and then XTR get 23% or is this a different deal e.g. 50:50 like what’s specified for exploration in the original agreement."
Surely it must be a 50/50 split as in orginal agreement?
I'm assuming costs will be $10M and its $5M each but we get 50% share not 23%. Extra income should be substantial but that aint gonna happen for 3 years + imho
If mmp paid for all capex then I would assume we are going to get 23% but CB mentioned that we would be paying for all / some of the plant.
Tbh honest I'm very optimistic about FB and future revenue. Just a pity CB doesnt share see it as some do and keeps looking at those lottery tickets.
I see his "looking at more acquisitions " comment today as much more damaging than he realises.
There should not be a sell-off tomorrow based on fundamentals. The MC is exceptionally low and easily supported by FB alone. Even if the FB income figures are lower than CB's guidance (quite possibly) the sp should rise when we get actual profit. This is discounting BR 100%.
There may well be a sell off tomorrow based on sentiment and against lack of trust in CB to deliver or believe anything he says . Oh and his lack of acceptance or acknowledgment of any responsibility
another question for agm
does *****on hills or jeremy reid have any involvement either directly or indirectly with xtract now