Member Info for alwayswinning

Schizophrenic you say, well you're obviously the one with paranoid delusions. You've called me a deramper, you say I don't hold anything, now you're saying I'm buying and adding to a holding you claim is imaginary. You're the one who's all over the shop.

Don't knock people for setting there own targets. As I've said, when the LFT news drops 50%-100% uplift is possible from these levels I feel, providing Alastair doesn't go into too much detail about how little the initial orders will likely be worth relative to the market cap. He will likely go down the same road as NCYT and let the market paint it's own pictures.

£3, although a little ambitious in these early stages given where the market cap is already certainly isn't in the realms of fantasy at least on a spike given how ambitious investors can get, but all this talk of multi-bagging on LFT news is absolute insanity IMO.

I make one or two observations and everyone piles in most of the time cityone. You'll notice most of my posts are replies to people demanding answers or simply insulting me. I very rarely hurl insults, even to people who throw abuse in my direction as it's not my style. No idea if you're genuine or not, but I wish you well with your investment as I do everyone.

Cityone, another 30 post wonder trying to direct the show along with zztop, sagetrader and pellegrine.

I make a few posts based on new developments and you and your gang/alternate accounts jump in goading and insulting.

I'm always happy to engage in polite discussion and there are a few decent people here. This forum is a place for the exchange of opinions. People like you want to silence alternative opinions with your spam accounts you've set up just to ramp, mock, abuse, troll and insult.

zztop 72 posts. pmsl

That being said, given the unique nature of the covid situation and given AVCT has no other products generating revenue it would be ridiculous to value AVCT at what it could be turning over beyond a year or two, so IMO retail will value it close to what it thinks AVCT will earn in that period, nothing more and nothing less. There could obviously be spikes along the way, but I don't think I'm far off in my assessment.

Simply giving a sense of relativity to the price. You're saying I said it should be valued at 1x.

23 posts and 26 posts. Says it all really.

One pretends to be in corporate finance and the other can't type in paragraphs. Both have a fondness for making false claims and inventing straw man arguments.

You belong to a gang of rampers on here who for the last several days invent straw man arguments against my posts.

Please point to where I said the company should be valued at 1x. You've invented that so you can argue a false point.

I was simply trying to point out how many years it would take to produce and sell tests to cover the current market valuation. I wanted to give people a sense of relativity. Wasn't at any point commenting on P/E ratio until you brought it up.

The cancer therapy is neither here nor there yet. The market attributed 15p-20p to it prior to covid so I'll side with retail on that. As far as other growth opportunities and pipeline. What other opportunity is there beyond covid? 1-2 year lifespan max I'd say. So all expected value should be based on what AVCT can make of covid over the next few years IMO. Bearing in mind the market cap is half a billion and they're currently selling nothing, I really don't see what you find difficult to understand,

I'm not interested in what you think the company is worth in your professional capacity, I'm interested in what the AIM market is likely to value it at.

You lot seem to be valuing the company like broker analysts. I'm more interested in how retail will value it.

Sage is talking about his experience in selling private companies. We're on the AIM market now in case you'd forgotten.

Cancer treatment is still a fantasy play yet. The market attributed literally no value to that prior to the covid play. Again the covid angle is unique in that there is a very limited window of opportunity. You can only value AVCT at what it is likely to turn over in the next year or two if all goes well. After that it may well be trading at a loss. I don't think there's anything unreasonable about that.

The fact you're comparing AVCT's potential p/e ratio to AZN and TESLA says more about you're wild ambitions.

I would say if the company can turn a profit of 80m-100m per year from here then the current mcap is justified for an AIM Pharma. At the moment they're turning over nothing. Also you can't be overly generous with a P/E ratio based on one product that may be redundant after a year or two.

The point is. If it could take anywhere between 3-10 years to cover the current mcap, where are people getting 200%, 300%, 400% rises in the next few months from.

If the company can rake in a decent profit, we see some figures and signs that will indeed be the case, that the test is successful, then yes the current mcap could be justified. The question is, what isn't already priced in in the near term? Success of the test and that it will sell in the millions per month is obviously priced in. Myles is pushing it as a given on Twitter and the market seems to think it is, and I believe there is a reasonable chance that is the case too. Just don't understand how people think this is a multi-bagger in the near term.

So assuming each test will be worth £2.50 to AVCT, and I feel it will be much less than that IMO, but let's just assume.

So to justify the current mcap we need to sell 200m tests. AS said their was potential to ramp up production to "millions of tests per month". So we can assume he means less than a million per week otherwise he would have said millions per week instead of month. Let's be more than generous and assume 5m per month. So assuming a generous profit of £2.50 per test and 5m tests per month it would take well over 3 years to cover the current mcap.

That's no to say there won't be a ramp up of production and some other manufacturing agreements in the future, but production at a considerable scale could be 6 to 12 months off easily IMO assuming limited competition and no change of circumstances pertaining to testing.

My point is, people make it all sound so easy. As if a half a billion mcap cap is nothing and the moment the test is being sold, the the mcap is justified. It really isn't that simple is it. If they end up making a 50p profit on each test then they will need to sell and manufacture a billion tests for instance.

Going back to my earlier points. Getting this test to market well before any competition and allowing other companies to implement the platform in their own tests for a royalty of say just 10p per test would have been genuinely amazing for AVCT. Imagine billions of tests being manufactured the world over weekly/monthly and all paying a 10p royalty to AVCT. A lot of that was figured originally in to some analysts projections IMO.

I just don't see how they can scale up quickly enough to justify the current SP in a timely fashion.

Well I've felt a similar way since May myself mate. NCYT got their test out there, made some money then put it towards developing new tests. Just get something out there to start with and make some money. Alastair has yet to get a single product to market yet and when he does his obsessive compulsive idea of a "Goldilocks" test could prove costly if something simpler and cheaper is dominating the market or soon comes to dominate thereafter. Given the money and technology at his disposal it's quite miraculous he's actually got absolutely nothing to market yet in spite of everyone heaping praise on him.

So you're of the opinion Avacta will be making £2.50 profit on each test then PL75?

Look at Myles' research. The big money that piled in and drove this to £2 originally were expecting AVCT to dominate totally. That includes royalties. Not talking about Alastairs business model. If people listened solely to Alastair the SP would be back where it was in January. The market is speculating on big things, and that includes selling 10's millions of tests per day and royalties IMO. How else could the market justify a half billion market cap if they weren't speculating on those things?

I told you several developing 10 min and less rapid saliva tests and you went on to say one was no good, and then slandered the other company saying they had nothing. You're the liar PL75. I also named several other companies who are rumored to be developing similar tests but unlike AVCT aren't intending to raise an insulting amount of money so don't feel the need to play all their cards at this stage and ramp the azz of their tests like Alastair did in May.

Added to that, as I mentioned in my previous post. You don't necessarily need a 10 min LFD to dominate the market and blow AVCT out of the water. A test which isn't necessarily as complicated, slightly less advanced, a few minutes slower, simpler, cheaper and not self-contained could easily sell better in most mass testing situations in the end.

Zztop - That's my point, AVCT is becoming limited to generating revenue from the tests IT can manufacture. Royalties were where the big money was at that. A situation where AVCT didn't have to worry about it's own manufacturing capacity. At this moment in time I don't think it has the capacity to manufacture many, at least not many relative to it's half a billion mcap.