Member Info for alwayswinning

......Just read BBN's post on Twitter and it now sounds like he's finally woken up to reality a little more. Looks like he now realises the LFT, even if it comes to fruition isn't likely to be the huge money spinner everyone made it out to be relative to the current inflated mcap. He's now talking about the "long term". You'll recall in my posts from previous months warning that when the main commentators for this stock start rambling on about the "long term" and "cancer treatment", that's the time to get worried.

"By the sounds of it this elisa test is hugely sensitive ( maybe the most sensitive test ever?) and therefor not appropriate for mass testing but second to none for research purposes?
Viva Affimers!!!!!"

PMSL. Oh great, so a test that's the most accurate in the universe but only of any use to half a dozen twerps in white coats is a positive in your mind. That's really going to help justify a half a billion dollar mcap.

...."I look forward to starting the clinical validation with the first pilot batch of rapid tests as soon as possible."

Looks like my October/November prediction that I was shot down in flames for in May and June is going to be spot on.

Market could take this news any way. Me personally, I take it as a huge negative that the test is still not being validated.

Is that the official definition of "most infectious" hp, or just what you want it to be?

......What happened to the asymptomatic claims after? That's now changed to "The most infectious people". Not much separating it from other tests if that's the case.

..................Clinical validation hasn't even started according to that RNS. As per my post last night. Obviously the reason Alastair hasn't got many manufacturing partners in place yet is because the test is still way off the manufacturing phase.

Difficult to say how the market will react today. I suppose it depends how well they can read.

......Another question I keep pondering is why hasn't Alastair secured any more manufacturing partners for the test?

Either he's still not sure about the test, he's not expecting demand to be all that high, or he's not in any rush because he knows the test is still a long way off from the manufacturing phase. Again, not a deramp, but a serious question. What other reasons could there be at this stage?

Looking at the last RNS, I'm not convinced the test (At the time of the last RNS)was /is in the validation phase proper.

Read it carefully.

"LSTM is currently evaluating the performance of prototype lateral flow tests provided by Cytiva alongside Avacta's ELISA laboratory test using SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus samples, as a precursor to full clinical validation studies."

Reading that it sounds to me like it isn't, or at least wasn't at the time of the RNS in the validation phase proper.

It's important to show Zztop. Most people on here claim everything I say is a nonsense. The vast majority of everything I've posted here the last four months has been correct. Of course you can trawl through every single word and pick fault with the odd minor detail here and there, but the reality is, if you offer up my posting history to most other people's on this board, you'll find my assessments have been more accurate than probably anyone else here overall. Got nothing to do with bragging either, the point is, still to this day I receive horrific abuse for voicing my opinion and yet up to now my posts have proved more correct than anyone else's. Food for thought.

........Here's an old post of mine from July 1st. I was absolutely torn to shreds on here and abused in the most obscenely sickening fashion for telling the truth. I was told my timelines were way off and that the LFT would be on the market by August and that the BAMS would be on the market in July. I called abject bullshzit to all those claims, but everyone here persisted in their delusions and insults.

This post has aged like a fine wine:

"RE: RNS Tomorrow:-) 01 Jul 2020 12:06

I'm pretty confident that if they can get the LFT to a standard that is acceptable, and their vague statements up to now make me wonder, then it's seems inconceivable to me that the test will be on the market before mid September to early October. They've delayed far too long IMO, and the test being on the market in July that was suggested in May while they were trying to ramp that placing away now seems pure fantasy. At the current snails pace they'll be lucky to have even started any meaningful trials by the end of this month. Assume 4 to 6 weeks for trials and you're well into September. Then you have the CE and FDA approval to get. October at the earliest now IMO."

Hancuck certainly hasn't added any sense of security or clarity to AVCT's position today.

When asked about the saliva test, he just waffled on randomly about things we already know along with some incoherent drivel.

Myles is noticeably quiet about AVCT again. Personally I think his forecasts are way off at the moment. He is definitely going to need to do some major revising IMO.

........Will likely close at or near the days low primed for another drop tomorrow morning IMO. Same as last week.

What people fail to grasp is that if AVCT leave it any longer then their test could end up falling behind an alternative test/tests. It doesn't need to be a LFT that wins the day. As the last few weeks have shown us. All sorts of alternatives are being explored that none of us know about. Alastair played his cards openly to get the placing away IMO. Many companies don't need to raise money, so we know nothing of what's being developed secretly.

Added to all that, another issue with more competition that many people fail to recognise when they say "there's room for all of us", is that AVCT would likely have to lower their prices to compete. The more competition there is in the space, the less flexibility you have over pricing. The profit per test that people throw around in here is complete nonsense IMO.

The biggest problem I can see is that if they drag this on much longer, as competition swells and PR surrounding other companies goes into overdrive, when they do finally drop the news everyone is waiting for, what price will the SP be? If this is trading in the 120p-150p range for example, then you can't expect it to do much more than 200p-250p IMO, and the last four months of waiting will have been a waste for investors.

As I said not long ago a test of the 130p-150p range looked likely on no news.

...........September is upon us and still zip.

I've literally made two posts on this board in the last three days (Three including this one). If you don't like my opinion and want it buried, filter me and/or don't reply to my posts and they'll get lost in the vast ocean of ramping.

I hardly post here and the bulk of my posts on this board are simply me replying to aggressive questions or insults. As someone else mentioned. If everyone is so sure of this, why is everyone so touchy when someone expresses an opinion?

......Just saw the Telegraph article. Says the test that's being trialled at the airports takes 20 seconds. As I said before, while AVCT has dithered and delayed other companies have also been working hard. A few people on here made it seem like AVCT was the only company that could come up with a solution.

If there is no good news tomorrow I can't see the SP reacting well to everything that's transpired over the weekend. People here saying there's more than enough room for our test as well at airports. Why? The Telegraph article said they're triallng a 20 second test, so ours would surely be inferior to that test. Or am I incorrect in that assumption?

............Can't count how many times I've read that over the last two months. Usually it's the same people saying it too. They will be right eventually of course. Doesn't say much for their analysis though does it.

I was discussing last week how other companies will move in if AVCT doesn't get a move on and how it was imperative for AVCT to have got the test to market in mid-summer as promised. It looks less likely than ever now that any other company is going to use AVCT's platform given how many are developing their own tests. Royalties were the most attractive part of the potential here IMO, but they needed to deliver on time ahead of everything else by a country mile. Not happened though unfortunately.

I was also discussing how AVCT's test may not be suited to mass testing in airports etc. I was mocked for suggesting that, and low and behold within a few days of me saying it we find out that Mologic is looking likely to be the company to supply the airports with tests.

A long weekend, people are getting impatient and Alastair is quiet as a church mouse. All eyes will be on this for a red dot this week.

People keep talking about how the market is big enough for everyone. Please bear in mind the current mcap was based on AVCT taking a serious percentage of it. Obviously AVCT can't produce enough tests to anywhere near justify the current mcap IMO. The only way AVCT could have taken a considerable chunk of the market was if this platform was being used by the big boys. Doesn't look likely now though IMO.