Member Info for aligator

My source is impeccable.

I understand that the North Energy shareholding has been reduced zero so it will be interesting to see if there is a relative recovery in the sp.

AIM is merciless towards companies that predict great things and subsequently struggle to deliver. This was the case with TXP during 2022/23 but the performance of the sp in 2024, notwithstanding all the good news (as outlined by Che7win), is difficult to comprehend. Looks as if the legacy of PB's early prognostications of giant reservoirs and walls of cash are still haunting TXP years down the road.

The last RNS stated "We anticipate that first natural gas production from the Cascadura C pad will commence prior to the end of October 2024." This implies that testing and flow rates would have been completed prior to this so a mystery as to why such details remain unpublished, unless we get an RNS tomorrow - i.e. end of October.

This follows a complete lack of publicity relating to both the corporate presentation and the analyst event in T&T which, as Sturm pointed out, could have been highlighted at the very least by a photo of senior management and analysts at a well-head of similar which, as dunderhead said, once again undermines confidence in the BoD.

Frankly, TXP's public relations leaves a lot to be desired - time and time again investors are scrabbling for information as is the market, which merely depresses the sp.

Correct simonT, my mistake

GGG, North Energy just confirmed it sold ca 248,000 shares (1.05% of issued shares) of TXP, taking its holding from 3.963% to 2.914%. Why sell (presumably in the last few days - are these the 50k chunks?) on the on the cusp of the T&T get together of PB and the analysts? Doesn't make sense unless...

GGG, Could not agree more. This has been an historical challenge for TXP and it seems it has not learned any lessons from past communication problems. Also not sure having Shipka do the presentation was a wise move and despite wishful thinking by investors the sp has not yet reacted to what is essentially positive news.

The issue here is historic - PB has a history of overstating matters (since brought to heel by his advisors) and also throwing out target dates which have invariably been missed. Markets like AIM hate this behaviour, specifically with young developing companies, resulting in investors losing patience and the sp suffering. This is probably also relevant to the TSX, notwithstanding TXP's Calgary HO.

We are all hoping for positive news but, having set a date, the absence of any news from PB is somewhat concerning.

Lest my comments upset people...

Calm down or you'll have a Connery....

Johnoxxx, Wow! Did you catch your wife in bed with someone else?

I was not being (and never have been) misleading in any respect whatsoever. I listened to the podcast and reflected some of PB's comments about very high pressure gas in one of the wells, which we can only presume is currently being assessed.

What is your problem with that summation?

Johnoxxx, In the podcast PB mentions the existence of very high pressure gas in one of the two wells drilled on Casca and states that this is not what they would have liked. However, they will be testing this is due course and will report to the market (presumably 17 Oct). Frankly, this is not what the market wants to hear which is probably one reason why the sp has not reacted positively to the statement.

Interesting update from PB but also interesting to note how much more definitive he now is. No more grand statements about walls of cash and giant reservoirs which suggests that he has been given swift lessons by his advisors that, in this industry, it is achievements, not words, that count.

The pressure issue would appear to be the one possible downside but please comment if I am missing other critical points. Thus, his anticipated statement on the 17 October will hopefully provide positive data on this issue and on production rates.

As for the sp, I think I have answered the question in my above comment but the reality is that, despite withdrawing from the Trinity deal, the sp still remains south of where it was before the offer was made.

Ss, Hope you are right.

Supersport, The BoD have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders to protect their interests. Failure to do so would expose the directors to legal charges and penalties. For that reason, no director of any company would leave the outcome of such a situation solely in the hands of its third party lawyers, hence why I am sure the BoD are intensively involved in this situation.

Be interesting to see what the sp does today. In theory it should recover back towards the pre-bid price.

Good news in some respects but this conundrum must be taking up a lot of board time and TXP money.

TXP bappears to hold the upper hand per the following paragraph in the RNS:

"Touchstone notes that the terms of the Irrevocable Undertakings oblige those Trinity Shareholders and Trinity Directors who gave Irrevocable Undertakings to vote against the recommended offer by Lease Operators Limited for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Trinity (the "Lease Operators Offer"), which is intended to be implemented by way of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement pursuant to Part 26 of the Companies Act (the "Lease Operators Scheme"). As long as the Irrevocable Undertakings remain binding, the statutory majorities required for shareholder approval of the Lease Operators Scheme would not be capable of being met and the Lease Operators Scheme would not, therefore, be capable of becoming effective."

Given that it is effectively only TXP who can cancel the Irrevocable Undertakings, this bid does appear as if it could succeed. That said, should the Trinity shareholders and directors who signed these undertakings take this to court, it could become messy, drawn out and costly.

For the record, there is no other shareholder who hopes more than me that tidd83 or John2727 are proven correct in the next 5 months or so. However, I cannot help but think that the company has been the architect of its own problems over the past few years. Courtesy of PB's historic comments about massive reservoirs and walls of cash, just about every positive RNS since then has resulted in the sp going backwards. From the heady days of 176p in early 2021, the sp drifted steadily down to ca 40p, despite all the news about Cascadura coming on stream, new licence awards and new infrastructure. And then, in its wisdom the TXP board decided to make a bid for Trinity, resulting in the sp slipping even further to below 30p as another bidder emerged. Yes, the company has issued naughty boy letters to Trinity shareholders but the reality is that it is now bogged down in a situation which is deflecting management time and costing money.

As John2727 notes, the NPV of its reserves are probably at least twice its market cap if not more which would suggest that a rerate is likely. However, this has been stated repeatedly during the past year or so without any hint of substantive sp recovery.

And what would be your explanation for the sp to drop below 30p?

Johnoxxx,

"Since we began production at Cascadura in September 2023, we have gained valuable insights into the reservoir that will benefit our future drilling initiatives. However, we have observed that field declines have been steeper than anticipated, leading us to adjust our midpoint forecasted 2024 average production to 8,000 boe/d. Consequently, we now project an approximate annual funds flow from operations of $28 million for 2024."

QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM