Member Info for aligator

Johnoxx Try not to get so aggravated by my comments.

I was a shareholder in Independent Oil & Gas, which was put into administration late last year as a result of previously reported data on the size of a gas reservoir and the production rates, all previously audited by third party petroleum engineers, proving to be vastly optimistic, resulting in the company's revenues being unable to meet its costs. At one stage (a la TXP), IOG was reaching for the moon but subsequent field development and production issues brought it to an abrupt stop, literally. This all happened in a very short time-frame (less than a month), so my comments are made from negative experience.

Yes, most will argue that it will all be ok insofar as TXP is concerned (which they would say wouldn't they?) but, as the saying goes, once bitten twice shy.

Ps Since the Operational Update on 1 August (based on which many posters appear to have developed considerable optimism), the sp has declined by ca 11%...

Dbh1965dbh, Thank you for your curt response. I am always intrigued as to why people become offensive just because others either say, write or do something with which they don't agree. There are far more pleasant and polite ways to disagree.

I have indeed read the "RNS" to which you refer. However, I was actually commenting on two other issues - the impact on the sp of the Trinity bid and the prospect of further sp decline should the quarterly report contain anything negative relating to production (irrespective of the recent statement) or reservoir decline at Cascadura.

I presume you are a shareholder and so we are both in the same boat, hoping that this will all turn good in due course. However, it is a stupid investor who ignores the downside risk potential in any deal or company, hence my pessimistic approach (as supersport knows).

With due apologies to supersport, got to comment again on the sp and the impact that the Trinity bid has had. It is in relative limbo courtesy of the LOL bid (and could go on for months), demanding considerable BoD and senior executive time (when Cascadura should be the focus), costing money (lawyers etc) and is probably contributing to all sorts of negative vibes in the market.

Let's just hope that the quarterly production data and any pronouncements on reservoir decline are positive. The alternative is too worrying to consider.

Supersport, Fair comment and no attempt at a defence, except to say that my risk analysis background has resulted in a more pessimistic approach to most of my investments on the basis that good news is a bonus. That said, I think you have to agree that the story of TXP, if not the ridiculous promotions of PB, over the past 3 years or so (enormous reservoirs, walls of cash, etc) has come back to bite the company in the backside with a sp trading at ca 85% lower than its high in early 2021.

This is rapidly evolving from a sh*t show into a clusterf*ck and the market reaction is plain to see in the TXP sp, irrespective of whether we feel we are in a position of strength or not.

The suggestion of a jv with LOL is not that left field as one might think since the alternative of this potentially dragging out and even going to a commercial court thus tying up TXP BoD time etc, could really be quite negative.

Happysparrow, Took your advice and read about 12 of the postings on Trinity's share chat, including ab76's rant. What I see is a sh*t show of puzzled and disgruntled shareholders who agree that Trinity's original offer was never a viable prospect.

That doesn't mean to say that this is the end of the matter as TXP may yet pull out. Either way though, you have to question PB's investment logic and the timing of TXP's offer, given the required focus on Cascadura etc. Put simply, TXP is not yet out of the mire and only positive news on 12 August (if I remember correctly) will lift the sp. Any negative news on production rates etc and the Trinity bid will see the sp fall markedly.

My view on PB is that he simply does not have the length and breadth of experience that one would hope for in leading a gas production company in T&T, not exactly an easy country to deal with.

I think that the offer for Trinity was ill-timed and on terms which favoured Trinity shareholders. The end result was more pressure on the share price which has become even greater with the emergence of LOL as a potential buyer.

I would like to think that if the Trinity deal does not happen the sp will recover to its previous levels but, if the anticipated data reveals negative information about decline rates, then the sp will suffer significantly.

Hopefully this movement is the precursor to a sustained rerate over the rest of this year rather than just reflecting the market's reaction to Labour's victory.

Aah Supersport, What would I do without your wisdom? Given the market's reaction to TXP announcements over the past few years (where the sp invariably dropped on positive news), you and I both know that, for this sp to rocket, any such announcements are going to have to be extremely bullish.

GGG, If Cascadura does report a problem of any nature, this sp could tank. When does the T&T court pass its final ruling on the Trinity deal? Is this before or after the expected quarterly results?

The reality here is that the MMs and IIs are controlling the value of TXP. Any experienced, logical investor would, based on the raw data of TXP's and, now, Trinity's assets, come up with a valuation considerably greater than the ca£80 market cap currently reflected. This is market manipulation at its most cynical and reflects the pure incompetence of both the LSE and TSX to deal with such.

Of course market professionals will seek to argue that it has been selling which has driven the price down to levels last seen 4 years ago but, at the bottom line, it is manipulation which is holding it at down.

Ss, Wish I could share your enthusiasm. Our wall of cash seems to have turned into a wall trash and I simply don’t understand the timing of to Trinity agreement. Is this why PB flew to London to try and drum upLondon investors ? If so he appears to have not succeeded. Yet another RNS and yet another sp decline.

I sort of feel slightly misled by PB and the company. You can only analyse what is given to you and we do appear to have been focusing on the wrong issues.

PB and is fellow directors have chunks of shares so I can only cling to the hope that what they are actually seeing comes right in the long term.

Be good to get Malcy’s perception on these developments from this current target price of 200 p

Leapinglemming, The "wall of cash" statement has been a mystery to us all. PB has never apologised or sought to explain such ridiculously optimistic words but, clearly, the market, II's, MM's and other big investors have held this stupid statement against the company since. d Indeed, if you go back at least a year, you will note that the any RNS containing positive news during that period saw the sp move downwards.

I have said before that PB does not come across well in presentations. He may have full knowledge of the company but he fails to get the message across.

Many thanks again for such a in-depth response. I will be only too pleased to be proven wrong on my sp prediction, so long as the price is moving north and not south!

@holdandhope, Many thanks for the summary.

My take on this is that the deal appears to make long terms sense but its timing (acknowledging that there is never a right time), from a market perspective is too early, the point being that TXP still has much to do to prove its own reserves through production and cashflow. As you say, one of the questions is how quickly TXP can maximise not just its own production but that of Trinity as well and how quickly the tax losses can be value accretive.

At the bottom line, I still think this is an good buy at ca 38p but don't now see £1 or anywhere near Malcy's £2 this year or well into 2025, if not 2026.

For a variety of reasons I have not had the time to research Trinity's asset base and worth but, based on the performance of TXP's sp, it is not being perceived as adding wealth. I note the comments of other posters but would appreciate a summary from the technical professionals among our shareholders. Simply put, is the value accretion or value diminution?

Could someone please explain how Premier Miton managed to accumulate almost 16m shares to end up with a 6.79% holding in TXP when the trading volume over the past week or so would not appear to support this? Could this have been a private trade? Further, what is the AIM regulation concerning the timing of public announcements about shareholdings over 3%.

Great to see Premier Miton, Cannaccord, Shore and Cavendish all now pouring into the stock . The market should react positively to this.

TM, I share your views about PB and also about the company's media/PR strategies, as they are clearly not working. On every announcement of positive news in 2023 and so far in 2024 the sp has fallen. We all know that PB's reputation took a blow from all his future riches speeches in the past but that just does not explain how the sp has gone from 175p to just over 40p. Clearly there is a thin market, courtesy of few shareholders but it is the absence of the II's, MM's and brokers that worries me.

It is simply inexplicable and has now moved back to where it was in early Feb, reflecting a market cap of less than £95m, notwithstanding well progress, confirmation of increased loan, etc.