Member Info for aligator

John, my grateful thanks for your experience, wisdom and predictive capacity. What would the world do without people with your intellect?

The Norwegian investment company has just reduced its holding from 4.038% to 3.963%. This could be just a portfolio balancing event or could it be that it is aware of something not exactly positive? Given that PB is due to speak at the webinar next Tuesday, one's mind could be directed to the latter.

On which date(s) did JW sell his shares? If he was in possession of inside knowledge at the time (the sp dropped after each presentation) then such sales would have breached the regulations of the LSE and should be investigated.

Thanks. As you say any income without expenditure is welcome.

Highlandmatt, That is over my head. Is there a connection regarding a deal between Challenger and Predator with TXP?

Sturm, Apologies, did not interpret your post correctly.

If the webinar contains any negativity, I see the sp dropping, the severity of the drop gauged by the severity of the negative news. If the webinar is a success (i.e. no negatives and perhaps a couple of positives) then I would agree that the sp should be hitting the 50s and, hopefully, based on success in the 2024 drilling plan, heading towards the broker targets of 100p plus (perhaps a 2025 event?).

Let me stress, I am neither a ramper nor a deramper. I am just a LTH with a banking background in oil and gas lending who is simply frustrated to hell by the amateur house antics of PB and his advisers in terms of the company's PR.

Johno, Firstly, the last RNS stated, confusingly, that TXP was in "advanced discussions" with the lender but then added that "currently there is no firm commitment in place between the parties". There is no way that a bank or professional lender would allow discussions to become advanced without having made an upfront decision on whether to make the loan and made this known to the applicant (TXP) along with conditions related to any agreement to proceed. What the RNS painted is a completely illogical scenario.

Secondly, TXP is not seeking to extend the loan by term but by amount and does not yet (at least not reported) have agreement for this increase per my first paragraph.

Thirdly, loans for such development drilling are based on industry qualified projections of production including the NPV of producible reserves from the field and predicted cash flow therefrom. Even the original loan would have been based on this as TXP had no other assets to speak of to underpin the facility as security. Given that production is now lower than originally forecast, I would imagine that this will be playing on the mind of the bank/lender as it will require considerably tighter confirmation of projections from wells to be drilled in 2024. This is, in my opinion, why we still don't have confirmation of the increased loan.

Sturm, Current Cascadura production is less than the lower estimate prior to first gas. The increase in the credit facility has not been achieved. Is this because revised production profiles will not support the increase or that other drilling activity has not met expectations?

Don't get me wrong, I am an LTH and want success here but It think this presentation on 23 January is critical at this moment in time.

I have to say I am worried what PB is going to say, specifically if there is any hint of negativity about, inter alia, the negotiations for the increased credit facility, Cascadura production levels or results from current drilling activities. In such a scenario the sp will certainly lapse into the 30s. My problem is that I no longer have any faith in PB and continue to feel that the company should have a much more competent industry professional at the helm.

However, should the presentation be a success, I will be as relieved as every other LTH.

I can only hope that PB and his hapless media/PR advisers have considered very carefully what he will say on the 23rd. Previous PB presentations and formal RNS's have both failed to impress the market resulting in the sp moving downwards, even the announcement of Cascadura first gas.

I think we are all agreed that, from a public promotion perspective, TXP is one of the worst in this sector if not in the market. My own view is that the market has tired of PB's constant optimism with little to subsequently show for such. Further, the sp is not helped by the lack of sizeable II holdings.

Thanks Johno. I don't disagree with your comments but, if you add them all up, please tell me why the sp has basically gone backwards over the past 24 months? My view is simple, I think that in terms of PR and formal announcements, TXP and its advisers are amateurs and that the market is reacting to the ridiculous forecasts made by PB back in 2020/21 (walls of cash, giant reservoirs etc).

There is no reason why the company is valued at such a low figure.

The sp was last at this level in May 2020, getting on for 4 years ago. What many investors did in the 24 months that followed was to take the promulgations of PB at face value and this led to the sp hitting almost 180p at its peak. It is now over 75% down on this figure and may yet trawl the to 30s. Why? Simply because PB and the company projected everything from walls of cash to giant gas discoveries but, in reality delivered very little. Indeed, if you look at the performance of the sp over the past two years you will notice that, following each RNS, more often than not declaring positive news (including the announcement of first gas from Cascadura in September last year), the sp actually dropped. This, I believe, is the market's way, via the MM's and brokers, of saying "stop pontificating and start delivering".

What also hampers this share is the current lack of big investors, resulting in a somewhat larger than normal proportion of share capital held in private hands by people like us. Institutional investors, as we all know, carry weight in the determination of corporate values.

You would have thought that the company's advisers and brokers would have tried to put PB on the correct path but they are either too dumb to appreciate what is required or have been simply ignored by the President and CEO.

Yes, this company is seriously undervalued but I cannot see anything on the horizon which is going to bring about a rerate anytime soon. Further, if the company struggles to pull the necessary finance together (which would not appear to be a given) the 2024 drilling plan will have to be delayed, further undermining the market's belief in the RXP story. this will mean the the legions of LTH in this company (of which I am one) will continue to remain underwater for some time to come.

Frankly, this would all suggest that a change of senior leadership is not just needed but demanded and I can only hope that there are sufficient shareholders who would agree.

Rupert79, Clearly, it would be unwise to have the bulk of your money in one stock and logic would suggest you cut your losses and leave, to try agin with another company.

I have been pessimistic about this company for a couple of years now and the appointment of Lorna Blaisse was, in my view, a disaster, as has proven to be the case. However, these boards are full of people who can only see the world through rose tinted spectacles and it has been fascinating watching the posts of these people move from arrogance to confusion to failure. It is now clear that the rig was probably never fit for purpose and so not only cost a lot of money but failed quickly.

I remain a shareholder but clearly in a price hole which means bottom drawer for now unless and until the company's fortunes change. That simply cannot be under the control of Lorna Blaisse.

Is now ca US$130. This is lower than the lowest npv projection of Cascadura production alone (forget about Casc infills and other development assets). If I was conspiracy theory minded I might conclude that this was a deliberate run on the valuation of the company.

Tiburn, good summary of a company which, in my opinion, has failed to sell itself to the markets for a variety of reasons. Yes, it has great long term prospects and appears to be focused on creation of value via financial and industry discipline, but, as you say, there is a serious disconnect between the npv of its asset base and the share price.

Personally, I feel that PB is largely to blame for a slew of historical predictions which never materialised. That said, the company's choice of PR representative should be examined.

This is a low risk investment which could yet produce very good longer term returns.

Agree. Perhaps though if Cascadura infills or non-casca development wells show considerably better results than predicted.

With a P/E of just 3 the share price represents less than 3 years of (just) Cascadura income. So, with further Cascadura production wells and successful drilling on other assets, you can conclude that the future looks positive, suggesting that the post RNS drop in price was overdone and that as, next year progresses, the sp should start to rise towards the 140p set as a target by its broker. I have too much of my portfolio invested here but am prepared to hold to see how the next 6 months pans out. I recall Malcy suggesting even 200p as a target but this probably gave value to Royston.

An opportunity for the company to wow the market but, yet again, they drop the ball. So much for past statements about not needing to raise funding because of accumulating cash flow. We now have a statement to the market that, in order to achieve the 2024 budget, more funding will in fact be required.

PB and his colleagues just do not have a clue about how markets react to such situations and, frankly, their PR advisors should be fired (if not PB and his colleagues).

The market is sick to death of hearing jam tomorrow from TXP and has not surprisingly reflected this in the share price, yet another blow to long suffering shareholders.

A complete clusterf*ck as Clint would say. This is all about retaining jobs and employment and has absolutely nothing to do with investors' best interests. LB has been a complete and utter disaster and I see 1/2p shortly.

Glad to see the sp holding around 55p rather than in the 40's. But it is still puzzling why the sp is where it is.

When you examine TXP it is difficult to find downsides. Yes, Cascadura infill drilling might not be successful and other discoveries may turn out to be failures but information accumulated to date suggests the opposite. For me, this is now all about the passage of time and, from published data, the sp should conservatively achieve 150p if not beyond. If everything falls into place and high level predictions achieved, £2 should not be a barrier. But this will take time, perhaps up to 24 months.

Hang in there!