Member Info for aligator

Big bench, I admire your optimism. What gives you the confidence?

Goes the clock and the days slip towards the end of September - the spud end date promised by LB. This company is now a one shot binary play - they either find gas, in which case the sp will soar, or they fail to find gas, in which case the sp will plummet. I have taken equity profits from my holding and have left the rest to either make me money or lose me money.

The reaction of the market to yesterday's news is clear evidence of the legacy of Paul Baay's ridiculous historical procrastinations about walls of cash and other such unsubstantiated statements. As a long term shareholder, I am naturally disappointed and hope that a rerate will occur once the impact of cash flow is seen in the company's financial condition.

Malcy and co were talking the sp up to £2 and beyond. That seems a long way away.

1meteor, do you mean £0.017 or £0.17, as that was the price on 1 Sept?

Tom111, Given the recent history of this company, specifically, PB, I think "some" have every right to be less than optimistic.

Trademeup, You could be taking a lot for granted in your thinking. History has shown that PB cannot be trusted and what makes me concerned now is that Casca has just dragged on and on with no real positive news. That said, as a shareholder, I hope you are right!

Frankly, given this latest RNS, Paul Baay has to go, perhaps along with his technical seniors. The reality is that he/the company has said a lot and delivered little which is why the sp is down on this news.

I think it is time for shareholders to write to John Wright, the Chairman, and demand PB's replacement, along with a new senior technical team.

More procrastination from the company, the net effect of which is to drag the sp even lower. When, oh when, is PB and his BoD going to get the message that the market wants firm results, not information which adds the square root of very little to the value of the company?

JH77, I feel for you. My average is considerably lower, but not 2p!!!! This company will become legend in how it has screwed up a portfolio of development assets the geological and economic analysis of which could not have been more wrong. It is only the high gas prices that are keeping it afloat.

My sympathies also go to the myriad of investors who believed the cr*p constantly run out by successive BoDs and executive teams who, frankly, should have shown more skill and professionalism in making the judgements they did.

Who knows where IOG will be in 5 years, but the sp will no longer be in the 40p range!

Photo, My take on PB is that, not only does he like the sound of his own voice, he also sees himself as the master of public relations. As you say, he was a relative hero during the exploration days but, unfortunately, much of his pontification has yet to come to pass, resulting in the MMs taking a negative view on much of what is posted by the company. Let's face it, this share price seriously undervalues the company just based on existing production and anticipated Cascadura flows. That is because, in my opinion, the MMs are looking for operational evidence of the "wall of cash" which has yet to surface.

I have said for a long time that the company now needs an experienced PR board member or needs to appoint a top class PR company to manage its interface with the public and the markets.

Just a reminder to us all that the company led shareholders blindly into thinking that all was well with the Sofori rig lease negotiations, until almost the last minute, incredibly announcing that it had fallen through on Friday 7 July, dropping the share price significantly, before, incredibly, announcing just two days later on Monday 10 July that the company had purchased a rig, causing the share price to rise significantly. Indeed, the sp has since almost doubled from the closing price on 7 July.

From my perspective this stinks. When the 7 July RNS was issued, the company must have either signed the contract to buy the rig or have been very close to to signing. So why was this piece of information missing in the 7 July announcement? It certainly would have avoided the sp drop that day and I therefore wonder how many people "in the know" were able to benefit substantially from the artificial market created by these two announcements?

Frankly, I would not trust LB or associates one iota.

Irrespective of the impact of this last RNS, I think that most investors in this company feel that there needs to be a change in the company's approach to PR. PB has consistently, over the past few years, stood up and pontificated about what is to come but has simply not followed this up by way of achievement. The market has reacted to this by firstly driving the sp down to 50p and then either reacting slowly to positive news or rapidly to negative news - i.e. the market is basically saying "deliver on what you are predicting and the company value will reflect that".

Yes, the company would appear to be on the cusp of a substantial rerate, subject to no issues with Cascadura or Royston, but heaven help it if there are more problems along the way.

Somewhat pathetic summary of a quarter which has failed to live up to expectations on several fronts and therefore I am not surprised to see the sp drop even further from recent highs.

The Cascadura saga has gone on for some time now and has been accompanied throughout by ridiculous forecasts and statements by PB about reserves, walls of cash, etc. I can only believe that the market, specifically the market makers, have grown tired of such speculation and that the sp will only head above 100p and beyond when Cascadura is fully up and running and the Royston well(s?) have proven the reserves in that formation.

PB is a self-believer and feels that he is the best person to front the company. He is wrong. Indeed, his continued role as spokesperson is actually having a negative effect on the sp. He needs to realise the situation, tuck his ego in his pocket and appoint a professional PR company.

Had this company been better managed from a PR/media perspective, I believe the sp would be above 100p now.

Geld, You may well know PB but we both know that, irrespective of the closeness of your relationship, he would be committing suicide by giving you price sensitive information.

Agreed Wolster. Can you or another poster summarise what is happening to the sp. Previous RNSs confirmed production from H2 and said bond holders had agreed to covenant adjustments. so why is the sp still falling?

Is this purely down to shorters or do the brokers/MMs know something we don't? H2 is a success so why is the sp still falling?

Why am I thinking that the rig acquisition was already signed when Friday's RNS was published? This is just a crock of sh*t from LB and the BoD. No doubt there are some investors, with an inside track on what was going on behind the scenes, who have made small fortunes buying last Friday.

I thought I had seen a lot of unfathomable behaviour by this crew but this just tops it all. Surely, the LSE must now open an investigation into what has trasnpired?

Project121, I have no idea what you are seeking to say - your post lacks a subject and clarity. The reality is that H2 has been the only piece of positive news for the company over the past 3-4 years. There has been a succession of problems and failures which almost brought the company to its knees. Thus, to be praising the very people who were the architects of these, simply because they got one thing right, is counterintuitive to logical thinking.

As a shareholder, it gives me no pleasure to prove that my previous observations and conclusions posted on this board were not only to the point but, sadly, very accurate.

I was lambasted and castigated by a legion of fellow shareholders who simply could not remove their rose tinted spectacles and continued to believe in their own optimistic assessment of what had become a deafening silence by the company - some even suggesting that negotiations had probably not commenced until June, hence the delay!

The nature of AIM and the people who inhabit this market has shown time and time again that no news is not good news and that if there is a whiff of something not quite right, it probably suggests that it isn't.

I reiterate that appointing LB as CEO in February was a major mistake. It essentially elevated a geologist with little more than field experience throughout her career to a role that, in my view, completely swamped her with a multitude of issues - contractural, financial, mechanical, corporate and cultural – resulting in the situation the company now faces.

I am also incredulous that fellow posters saw value in the jv with Noble and perceived this as a win win situation – a phrase used excessively in the past. The reality is that Noble out-manouvered and out-thought the company in every respect and hoodwincked He1’s BoD and senior management team at the final turn. The reality is that Noble was simply in this situation for itself and, clearly, was able to dupe the hapless people from He1 for its own benefit.

Both LB and Mike Williams now need to fall on their swords as, I would also suggest, do the bulk of the BoD. It is just untenable that LB and MW continue in their roles – their reputations have been shredded and they no longer have the support of the bulk of shareholders (except those who continue to wear rose-tinted spectacles). Let’s be honest this is a clusterf*ck (as Clint would say) of the highest order and there needs to be a complete cleanout of board and senior personnel and their replacement with hardened, geographically, industrially and financially experienced professionals in order to give the company a fighting chance of survival.

Deltalo, Do you really describe the current team, who blundered their way through H1, Elgood, Southwark 1 and Southwark 2, as "excellent"? I would describe them as a bunch of hapless speculators who just happened to get one of 5 wells right. Frankly, the history of this company over the past 5 plus years reads like a horror story so I can only presume that you are a recent investor.