Member Info for aligator

KeithOz, Fair question, the answer to which is my historical experience of o&g and mining in Africa which has made me sceptical of small time company activity on the continent which, so often, has resulted in misrepresentation to investors . I remain a shareholder in He1 at a level which will not break me financially if it all goes t*ts up but would be a nice earner if it succeeds.

Welcome news about the Cipero block albeit sp indifferent to the announcement. Indeed, when you think that the sp has trawled along at ca 58p for months now, notwithstanding approaching Cascadura first gas and daily buy activity, it somewhat confirms that the market has become wary of PB and his historical predictions, etc. One can only deduce (hope) that Cascadura first gas will herald a rerate back above £1 and beyond.

Let's hope that the mechanical issue is confirmed and rectified in a few weeks. One can only assume that the bondholders will be prepared to provide leeway until the cash pot is refilled. There is simply no rationale for them to call a breach of the terms at this stage. However, as previously commented by others, the danger is that they require more capital, necessitating a placing, further diluting the sp.

I am not convinced about the lack of announcements by both He1 and Noble relating to the rig contract itself, vessel availability, licence and permit awards and other critical path issues. Also, I read somewhere that rig mobilisation was now not due to commence until end June versus mid-June previously. I am also aware that there are residual issues regarding the rig which will need to rectified. I therefore can't comprehend the comment that a ship will be available by the end of the month.

With regards to shipment to Rukwa, if the distance is ca 800 miles it should be remembered that this is not asphalted highway for the whole distance. I can only guess that several hundred miles will be via earth roads, which will slow the journey considerably. Further, the shorter rainy season generally kicks off in October so it is critical to get the equipment delivered, assembled and ready to drill before that occurs.

Highlandmatt, Positive news but, in view of the price sensitive nature of this info, should it not be announced via a formal RNS? The company has been using twitter frequently to make announcements but, clearly, that forum is unregulated. PB has already been fined for releasing information prior to it becoming public. Is he/TXP not walking a tightrope here?

Times move on and still no news about a rig contract signing (is it a three party contract or two parallel contracts?). Further, no further announcements about rig condition (Noble confirmed that there are remaining issues), that all permitting and licences (export et al) have been obtained, confirmation that a shipping contract has been signed, confirmation that all insurances are in place and confirmation that all permits and licences to import, transport and operate the rig in Tanzania have been obtained.

Also note that rig mobilisation now scheduled for late June instead of mid-June but no reason given. This will add further pressure to a Q3 spud.

As a long term shareholder who has seen this hapless company lurch from one problem to another over the past 3 years plus, I will only believe when I see the sp rise.

This company showed so much promise (sp neared 45p ay one stage) but has managed to bungle its way to near collapse by a series of negative events, most of which must have been foreseeable or considered a possibility by experienced professionals. Ok, this is a developing oil & gas stock on AIM so the risk was always significant but, oh, with the benefit of hindsight to even the uninitiated, decisions have been made which have left many of us perplexed.

As for a mechanical downhole issue on H2, one can only presume that this, again, was down to sloppy operational conduct. We will never know the truth but, for all his pomp and circumstance, RN has proven to be as useful as a witch's ***.

Limited update on Royston since then with the remainder of RNS's during that period relating to statutory reporting, share options or advising that Paul Baay had been fined C$40,000 for breaching TSX rules by releasing market sensitive information to a broker prior to releasing it to the public. Does not fill you with great confidence about to whom this company feels its primary responsibilities lie.

Means pertaining to machinery - i.e. the problem is not geologic. That said, I am left wondering why the RNS did not spell out specifically what the issue is. If it is drilling equipment or lining this should be retrievable. What do engineering and technician posters think?

This company and its hapless board and senior management team have lurched from one problem to another over the past 3 plus years and, while RN was seen as a saving grace when he took over as CEO, he has proved to be as useless as his predecessor and colleagues.

At one time this share price was in the 40's and all that has happened is that loyal shareholders have been shafted by the incompetence of highly paid morons.

Corpse, I don't use twitter either so rely on either RNS or posts containing twitter references. The reality is that every RNS is effectively regulated whereas twitter is not. Indeed, I am not aware that a company has ever been sued by an investor for false information revealed in a twitter post. I think this explains a lot behind the company's modus operandi.

Corpse, Agreed. Meanwhile senior personnel continue to receive more candy! I remain puzzled why some of the company's twitter posts don't fall into formal RNS territory.

Flaring but no RNS. Not unusual in the industry unless you think back to A2 and what unfolded. Given the history of this company, who knows what is about to be announced. We can only hope that it is positive news.

Calder5, I hate to remind us all but they were flaring on Southwark A2 before declaring the bad news. For those of us who have been here for the long term, I can only hope that no news is good news. That said, the longer the lack of an RNS about H2, the more my blood pressure rises.

Scored, No problem. As usual with these AIM companies, there is inevitably a negative history somewhere along the line. My take is that PB got beyond himself 18-24 months ago and promised achievements near-term which were always going to be long-term in reality. The share price, which neared 180p a couple of years ago, has dragged along around 50-60p for a very long time now and even the prospect of Cascadura has not pulled it out of the doldrums. That said, many, including Malcy, see the share price nearer 200p once production is fully underway and other prospects commence development.

Your timing could be perfect.

Atb.

Scored, Do you really believe what you wrote? PB and the company have maintained a simply awful approach to announcements, probably initiated by PB's "wall of cash" statement ca 18 months ago. What has happened since has been a salutory lesson in how not to treat shareholders with regards to corporate progress (or lack of). This, in my opinion, is why Twitter now seems to be the preferred route for communication - it is simply not regulated.

Legalwolf, Thanks for the response. I think we both agree where the pressure point is (NHE) but I do differ from your view that the contract and timescale are not going to be issues. You say yourself, that, should NHE withdraw it is possible (maybe probable) that He1 could not go it alone with Sofori and, in that scenario, I would have doubts about He1's funding wherewithal, even with another rig provider. This could put the entire timetable back months, possibly into 2024 and run the risk of encountering the short and long rainy seasons in Tanzania.

RogerJolly, The 6 April RNS stated that He1 had signed a letter of intent in relation to the rig. It did not confirm if this LOI was with NHE or Sofori but did comment that contract negotiations were due to commence (shortly one would presume). Since that date, almost 2 months ago, we have heard nothing and therefore to now state that "...according to all communications there is a contract drawn up or nearing completion ready for all to sign so the rig can be mobilised as we are aware, from mid June..." is simply mind blowing. There have been no further "communications" since 6 April and no evidence whatsoever from He1 that a contract has been negotiated and/or is ready to be signed. Further, there is just no evidence to believe that the rig can be mobilised "...from mid June.." The company would not release this information to any one individual as it is price sensitive - hence the current status of waiting for an overdue announcement.

BC2504, We are now effectively in Q3. it being past 4pm in the market.

Legalwolf, You raise an interesting point. We are essentially assuming that rig contract negotiations between Sofori and He1 and NHE have commenced following the RNS announcement of a letter of intent on 6 April. However, if NHE, in the absence of a farm-out, does not secure financial wherewithal to fund its portion of the contract, can we be 100% sure that Sofori is willing to enter into such contract negotiations if there is the prospect that one counterparty might bail out?

At the risk of getting my head shot off by the legions of rose spectacled shareholders on this board, I note that we are about to enter June but still have no rig contract. Forget about Noble, proposed farm-ins and prospective 3rd party investor activity. The reality is that, almost 2 months after the RNS, shareholders (including me!) are no clearer about the Sofori rig location, its technical /operating status and its availability. Just to remind us all, no rig contract (whomever it is with), no drilling and no drilling means even more accumulated daily costs for a company already traversing a financial tightrope.

Boards like these are designed to promote discourse about companies and shares but, frankly, the level of speculation during the last few weeks must have stretched even the most vivid imagination.

I have already written to the company and published the COO's responses in previous posts (which were ridiculed by many). Perhaps others might begin to feel the need to undertake a similar approach?