Member Info for aligator

As I have said before, this company has redefined the meaning of "if it can go wrong it will go wrong"! Time after time after time we have had positive predictions and time after time after time we have had disappointments. I really do have to question the level of competence within both the board and senior management - I have never come across a company which has produced so many failures. Quite what CalEnergy/Berkshire Hathaway make of these continued clusterf*cks is a mystery but, should they exit stage left, it will leave IOG horribly exposed.

While sharing everyone's hopes and desires here, there is still part of my mind that keeps harping back to the problems of the past, not least how expectant we were of the Southwark A2 well, only to have your hopes dashed on more geological issues.
I doubt that the current gains are due to the MM's sharing our views that something right must happen soon for IOG and perhaps they know a little more about H2, courtesy of those working on the rig, evaluating data, etc.

I am chomping at the bit for progress here and for the share price top start to reflect its theoretical value. However, that said, there is still a lot being assumed in relation to the LOI and the subsequent contract:
Is the LOI based around a Q3 timing?
Are contract negotiations actually under way or due to start soon?
Background, history and performance of Sofori?
Will the rig require makeover, adjustments, etc?
Where is the rig at this time?
Who will be responsible for transportation to Tanzania?
Logistics of getting rig to drill location in Tanzania?
Possibility of unexpected competing bid for the rig from a third party (not an unknown in the industry)?
To achieve a late Q3 spud, all of the above will need to be concluded within the next 2-3 months to provide time to get the asset to the site. In the western world that should not be an issue (although drilling history does have its share of horror stories) but this is Africa and my experience has shown me that timelines of this ilk can go wrong quickly because of rig owner intransigence, contract impasse, weather, transportation/vehicle availability, manpower, etc.

Monkey_Junkey, When you step back and look at the parlous state of the T&T economy and the relative lack of income/poverty that so many of its citizens endure and then consider the prospective long term financial solution proffered by TXP's assets and those of many other similar companies operating in the country, it is difficult to comprehend the bureaucracy, delays and sloth like progress of government in getting the oil and gas out of the ground. Sadly, it is a case of I'm alright Jack on the part of government minsters and officials with their high paid roles and obvious desires to stretch out permitting processes as long as possible.

gogs, I could not agree more. As I posted a few days ago, I really think that, given the lack off progress over the last 24 months, many investors are now snatching at anything positive to reinforce their hopes of something happening this year. As you comment, there is no website for Sofori and only an LOI with HE1 about a possible contract (when was this actually signed?). Further, we have little or no information about the location, operability and status of the rig nor about the logistics of its prospective shipment to Tanzania.
I had not realised that LB had poo pooed the company's MOUs and LOIs earlier this year so the hypocrisy of now issuing an RNS lauding an LOI about the rig is deafening to say the least. My personal view, having transacted business in Africa for decades is that it is unlikely that a well will be spudded before the end of September and that the prospect of results before the beginning of 2024 is slim.
I would reiterate that I am long term shareholder in HE1 and lucky to have got in at low prices, so, like most other posters here, I am hoping for success. However, looking through rose (I think I used pink) tinted spectacles does not hide the problems of the past 2 years and the current "lack of contract" situation.

Wiseman, I remain an investor so want the company to succeed. However, I think many investors are wearing pink tinted spectacles insofar as this company is concerned - the hope being that, surely things must start to turn at some stage. Dealing with the facts, HE1 is no further forward than it was 2 years ago and the board continues to put out drivel such as today's RNS. Please tell me what substantive information you gleaned from what is contained therein - a HOPE to spud a well in Q3 and what else? The honest answer is nothing and you can only reach the conclusion that LB authorised this RNS simply because she had promised an update "very soon" several weeks ago.
What do investors know about SOFORI? What do investors know about Noble and the agreement between it and HE1? This well is dependant on both and yet there is no hard critical timetable in place for it to happen.
I am a risk analyst so would not have a clue how to ramp or deramp. What I see is aboard of directors who have been outwitted by Noble and a CEO who is simply out of her depth.

My view of this RNS is that, yet again, it is meant to say a lot but delivers nothing. We are told that a Q3 spud is hoped for but, since the contract is still at LOI stage and negotiations continue, can we really rely on this, given the history of this company over the last 2 years. Further, despite the existing LOI status, LB states that long lead items have already been placed! I simply cannot comprehend this approach of committing hard funds to something yet to be signed.
Aside from the Q3 spud information, there no other dates, estimated or otherwise, in this short RNS. Why? Simply because the company has no real clue when the rig will be available and, it would seem, is at the mercy of Noble in this regard.
This has all the ingredients of a monumental cluster*ck. I hope I am wrong as I continue to hold shares, but this RNS gives me no faith whatsoever.

I would only repeat that trying make projects happen in Africa is not like the operating in the developed world. You need experienced heads who are not only expert in their relevant technical fields but expert in national, regional and local politics and diplomatic relations. Quite often the rules and regulations are summarily suspended, amended or dispensed with and even signed contracts taken back to the negotiation table.
I simply do not believe that the current management team have these skill sets. This is no better evidenced than LB's 13 March comment that an announcement would be made "soon". That is now over 3 weeks ago which is stretching the interpretation of soon.
My shareholding is small and one I would be prepared to take a hit on as it could also become very large if everything falls into place. That is why I continue to hold.

TL2482, You said it - "Hopefully our team are not stupid enough to simply take Noble at their word and goodwill and have cemented plans to drill regardless".
Firstly, you use the word "Hopefully" so you are relying totally on what you have read. I am challenging this because from 40 years of experience funding projects in Africa I can tell you that misrepresentation, subterfuge and corruption have brought many hapless companies to their knees.
Secondly, to drill a well you need a rig. Are you able to tell shareholders where this actually is and when it will actually spud?

Appears to me that HE1 has been out-negotiated and outsmarted by Noble. The failure to secure a rig and innocent assumption that obtaining requisite Tanzanian approvals is a slam dunk somewhat confirms that an experienced geologist does not necessarily equate to a a good CEO. Simply put, HE1 has the wrong people at the helm and will continue to struggle to make any progress unless and until this is changed. As I said in my earlier post, doing business in Africa in simply fraught with a multitude of risks, not least intangible political issues, and weak management will simply be led down the garden path, as is evident here.
For the record, I am a shareholder in HE1 but my stake is thankfully modest in terms of my portfolio.

Gheko, Yes.

Turbot1610, I think the "moaning" is justified. This company is giving fairly clear evidence that it is not succeeding in its plans evidenced by virtual inertia over the past two years or so. I simply don't believe that Lorna Blaisse is the person to lead the company in its challenges. Lack of announcements invariably heralds negative news in due course - that is par for AIM. I am not a deramper, just someone who assesses risk at face value (my comments on political risk earlier refer) and applies that to sp expectations.

Seen this scenario so many times before on AIM. Positive story sold to investors, money raised, initial positive news then a complete dearth of information about progress. The situation then exacerbated by the appointment to CEO of a person who appears totally out of their depth. Running a company of this nature takes a vastly different skill set to basic geological analysis.
We all know that doing business in Africa is fraught with not just technical, operating, logistical and personnel risk. It is almost always shrouded in political risk and inexperienced management teams will inevitably struggle to deal with the myriad of politicians, government agencies and regional and local groups in pursuing their objectives. I suspect that this is one fo the main reasons for the lack of progress and the lack of information being reported. Thrusting a geologist to the fore to seek to manage these risks is like putting a hen in a foxes den.

McShooter, Are you an employee on the ground there?

Flakey, I am not expecting the institutions to come back into this stock unless and until H2 has been successfully producing for a month or so. To my mind, the events of the last 3 years have produced enough negative sentiment in the marketplace to warn off most professional investors. That said, I would be happy to be proved wrong.

Pleased to hear all the positive comments and optimistic expectations. However, do be aware of the company's history of the last 3 years or so during which it has redefined the saying "If it can go wrong it will go wrong", predominantly in terms of geological issues.
Essentially, this company's future now hinges on the H2 well and, while I am heartened by the views of industry professionals, I wait anxiously for good news.

Not good reading . Leaves a twinge of doubt in my gut.

OilMan1984, I was fascinated by your comment that you "Called it here about 12 month ago. Incompetent leadership team and i forecasted 5p a share when it was 20p". I checked your posts from November 2021 to July 2022 and could not find anything resembling this prediction.

Trek, That did make me laugh. Where on earth did you get that picture? Sadly, however, the reality is that most if not all of us were taken in by PB's comments about a wall of cash. What we didn't do is check which decade he was predicting it to arrive !!!
Seriously though, if we investors have such misgivings about PB then the MMs will surely parallel those. That, in my opinion, is one of the main reasons the sp, despite coho production and future production from Cascadura, Royston and Kraken, is languishing where it is - the MMs are basically saying "enough of your bull**** TXP, show us you can deliver and we will reflect that in our valuation of the comapany"!

Absolutely shameful. A clear middle finger to long suffering investors.