Member Info for aligator

gggg21, The market has been spooked by IOG's list of problems over the past few years, either offshore or onshore. Sadly, for a company chaired by a geologist and supposedly staffed by industry professionals, many of the offshore issues have related to unexpected problems with downhole activities, either while development drilling or trying to produce. That's why Blythe is producing lower then expected gas, Elgood is shut in and the Southwark A1 development well (itself delayed because of problems with the rig) was capped so as to drill A2, which itself is the reason for the latest collapse in the share price.
Rupert Newell knows that resolving the A2 issues could be the last throw of the dice, as any hint of failure could see CalEnergy withdraw its support/walk away from the jv and the bond holders demand full repayment rather than be willing to refinance. That could spell the end of the company as it would then have to enter into a fire sale of its undeveloped assets which will result in derisory offers and minimal cash.

Amz, My view is that it could be anytime. However, Rupert Newall, having suffered the ignominy of having to announce the problems on Southwark so soon after taking charge as CEO, will want to ensure that he has a positive story to tell about well clean-up, shutting zones off and re-perforating zones, before issuing a formal announcement. That would suggest mid-late Feb or even early March. However, the technical experts on this board may have further thoughts.

With a market cap of ca £39m, the company's enterprise value would be in the region of £170m (including cash and debt, including bond). This would equate to an sp of 32p, so 7.5p looks a real bargain (if you could buy), offering, in theory, a 4 bagger plus on the basis of good news on Southwark. However, I would hope that such good news would also begin to take into account IOG's other undeveloped assets. That said, one can only assume that the market is so nervous about IOG after years of problem after problem, that the sp will take some time to reflect the real value of the company.

What is the deadline for filing a TR1? I would have thought within 24 hours. LO issued a TR1 on 19 Jan confirming that its holding had reduced from 12.96% to 7.97% but we have heard nothing from it or other shareholders which might explain the volume of sales over the past 2 weeks. LO's sell-off is mysterious for reasons already written by other posters and, frankly, one can only assume that it has found itself in a tight liquidity situation since the losses it will have taken at around 7-8p will have been significant.

No Tr1 from LO.

RNS is regulated by the FCA. Twitter, you tube, third party interviews, etc are not. I know what I would prefer.

Superhuman, That is not logical. A drone video of a gas well flaring does not mean there are no problems. Just have a read of IOG plc board! It was flaring a well which now has major problems with water production.

Board mostly red this morning. Have yet more additional issues been uncovered or is there a market dynamic behind the drop?

Ginmunger, Not only is any LSE listed company required to announce price sensitive information as quickly as possible, it is, technically, a criminal offence not to. Price sensitive information is anything that could impact the value of a company - up or down - and is not in the public domain. This includes positive as well as negative news.

Hi dunder, No I do not and the result was a false market where people were buying around 18-20p only to see 50% plus of their investment disappear over the weekend. That is shameful, if not illegal.

Joey, What I was pointing out is that the Regulatory news service (RNS) is the electronic information dissemination service operated by the London Stock Exchange (LSE). Importantly, the RNS has been approved by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) as a Regulatory Information Service (RIS). Neither Twitter nor youtube have been so approved. That is my point.
With regards to what could be reported in terms of price sensitive information:
- Significant progress on individual charted critical paths relating to the development of licences
- Operational challenges/issues
- Federal, regional or local issues (eg taxes) including gas sales contracts and political matters.
- Corporate issues such as senior/executive team appointments, resignations etc.
- Financial status and potential challenges
- Any other issue or matter which could impact the value of the company
The company (and, for that, its NOMAD) is tasked with the responsibility of releasing information which could impact the share price in a timely and proficient manner.

urzz, I would suggest that confirmation of being on target is as important as notification of being off-target - both are potentially price sensitive and contribute to the quest for transparency. The RNS process is approved by the FCA whereas twitter and youtube are not, meaning that there is no control whatsoever of the contents of announcements through these media outlets.
For a company such as TXP, I would much prefer to have a regular 4-6 week RNS corporate update, not just on development progress but reporting on other issues which impact the company - eg financial and political. It is all well and good for PB to regularly place himself in front of the camera but, professionally speaking he really needs to get a grip on the media and investor relations aspects of TXP operations.

Would be interested to hear thoughts and views as to why TXP seems to prefer to use social media sites - eg twitter, utube - to report on progress at the expense of formal RNS's? PB appears to like personal airtime, which is no bad thing, but the inconsistent drip drip of information gives a very unprofessional edge to this aspect of the company. What I would prefer, particularly at this stage of the company's development, are regular, say monthly operational updates within which analysts and investors can track progress of the various critical paths being followed.

Previous close listed as 7.5p

Coldspy, Cessation of the sell pressure and upward movement in share price. That said, I am no expert and this could be just MM shenanigans. However, the basic fundamentals of cash in bank, continuing Blythe production and second well, remedial work on Southwark A2 and then reentry of A1, plus existing and new licence interests (most of which contain discoveries) suggest that the sp should continue to recover.
Agree re further TR1's but LO's remaining stake in the company after the last TR1 was ca 8% or 42 million shares but the sell volume since then has not reflected this volume.

LO appears to have stopped its sell off but still owns 7.97% (last Tr1). This means it sold 4.99% of the company, equivalent to ca 26.2 million shares, which suggests that, in the absence of a further TR1, most of these were picked up by private investors. LO's remaining intent does not seem clear as it still owns just short of 13% of the company. Any thoughts people on the situation and whether the loss of LO puts PI's in a riskier position?

Can't see the sp moving up steadily until the current seller has finished disposing of stock and real progress has been reported from Southwark - so late February, even early March as a guess.
IOG has become a study in how not to go about operating in difficult geologies and has no doubt lost the confidence of the entire market which is why one II (presumably LO but no TR1 yet) has decided to call it a day and possibly hundreds of PIs have also sold out, many at a loss.
What really rankles is that, apart from the CEO, none of the BoD has stepped down, including the Chair who lists her expertise as geology! That is just rubbing salt into the wound!

The old adage of keeping people in the dark and feeding them manure is somewhat apt here. The last operational update from the company was on 10 November last year and, apart from the 17 August RNS advising of the approval of the Cascadura CEC and the 11 October announcement of COHO first gas, all other announcements (ca 25 of them) have been about either employee/director share purchase plans and purchases, grant of share options, exercise of share options, shareholdings or raising of equity (to which ordinary shareholders were not invited).
PB has been told many times that, despite his willingness to parade himself in video productions, investors want hard facts about progress or otherwise within the company and that operational updates should be a normal part of the company's publications. The fact that they are not is puzzling to say the least.
If you consider that first gas has been achieved at COHO, Cascadura is about to produce gas and Royston and other wells shortly to be drilled, quite apart from the other exploration and development assets on the books, and then look at the share price, there is a disconnect, not least when, based on no production whatsoever from these assets, the share price was trading at over 175p a year or so ago.
I have written several times to PB on this issue and never received a response.

This can only be read as good news and will bring some calm to the share price. Clearly, there is a way to go yet with A2 but the experience will hopefully turn A1 into a success. On Blythe, the additional well(s?) should enhance production and Elgood may yet be reopened in time. On the asset front, the company is sitting on a plethora of discovery licences and the relationship with CalE appears to remain solid.
From a financial perspective, ca £32m is a sizeable cash reserve and of course does not include future Blythe revenues.
Hopefully the sp will continue its rise but to get back to 20p and beyond, I guess we are going to have to know how successful the rework on A2 has been. That said, it is what the company has by way of undeveloped licence interests which will play a big role in determining if the sp can ever get back to 40p plus.

Have not heard from you in a while and trust all is well. Presume you, like so many LTH's, are once again feeling on a knife edge waiting for the next RNS?
I am still in profit on my holding but it might only buy a Magnum ice-cream.
What are your thoughts on the situation and your plans, if you have any?