Member Info for aligator

NoHelp, It is interesting that most comments on the results are about the specifics of the company's asset base. Few, if any have commented on the macro statement "The Directors have concluded that the uncertainty around the volatility of the gas price and future production levels from the Blythe H-2 well, as well as the need to take other mitigating actions described above represent a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern".
Yes, the accounts have been prepared on a going concern basis but the reality is that the company continues to exist simply because of high gas prices and its future would now appear to be largely, if not wholly, tied up in the success or otherwise of the H2 well.

Fireblade, Not sure the sp will reflect much of the gas price increase. Maybe once production from H1 is reinstated but nothing on H2 until the well is drilled and producing without hiccups. The market has become extremely wary of this company and its disastrous performance over the past 30 months or so.

Despite the seemingly goods news about Coho, Cascadura, Royston and Kraken, and the attendant value contribution of these assets in the next few years, it should not be forgotten that political risk could still considerably impact this expectation. Whether this is down to slow government processes in terms of certification (already experienced), creation of reception infrastructure, etc (a relative unknown) or introduction of new legislation or even higher tax rates, the stark reality is that T&T, with left leaning politics, has a history of corruption, compounded by a lack of adequate oversight within government and a serious lack of transparency.
Before the de-ramping allegations emerge, I would stress that I am a significant shareholder in TXP and therefore want to see £2 plus in due course. However, sometimes the technical issues involved with companies such as TXP overshadow equal or greater risk issues such as political environment.

Mole, We have both been in this for some time and have wretched memories of the failures of the past 30 months or so. H2 is effectively make or break for the company since, if it fails, the sp will halve and it will have to fund raise, further diluting shareholders, in order to reschedule the bond and commence development of its remaining assets. Indeed, I am not even sure that such a fund raise would be possible in such a situation since the risk profile will have increased greatly.

LEXION, Agreed. I am seeking to free up funds for further investment here as I share your views on the company's assets portfolio, long term production expectations and this reserve increase.

Nas-k, Thanks for the referral. In any o&g company, such an announcement would ordinarily add significantly to the market cap in relatively quick order. However, the market is too wary of PB/TXP's historical antics of spouting about "walls of cash" and other such optimistic predictions, only to then fail to deliver within a reasonable timeframe. That is not to say that this is not positive news but I suspect the share price will not improve until the market sees physical achievement.

I have to laugh at the congratulatory comments to IOG management for spudding the second Blythe well. The reality is that this board and executive team find it easy to do the legislative paperwork and and permit applications but have simply f*cked up when it has come to the real technical nitty gritty of drilling in the right locations and pre-planning drill operation and management - the events of the past 30 months being catastrophic testimony to this.
I wish all those who have bought in at 5-6p every success but my experience of investing in this company for years is that, if it can go wrong it will go wrong. Blythe 2 is now the prospective saviour of this company - if it screws up this time I cannot see that it will survive.

So, the clusterf*cks which have plagued this company for several years now, continue, this time with a reserve write down almost across the board.
Frankly, the IOG story has gone from bad to worse to catastrophic and, let's be honest, the hope we had in RN's ascendance to the CEO role, has disappeared over the past few months as he has overseen continued failure. Fiona MacCaulay's resignation was long overdue and, to be honest, one can only think that RN is probably considering his own options right now.
Quite what CalEnergy/Berkshire Hathaway/Warren Buffett think of this investment is anyone's guess. Of course, it is absolute small change to them but, like us long term shareholders, they are possibly thinking that the last 3-4 years has been abject lesson in how not to run an oil & gas company!

highlandmatt, Thanks. For me, this is the core value of posting sites such as these. I am a financier by way of background so able to assess risk and make informed decisions, but reliant on technical support to provide appropriate information.
I am optimistic about the company's prospects, having been a shareholder for some years. However, I do think PB's early rhetoric about walls of cash and unfounded confidence about timetables, etc has contributed to the share price being depressed to its current level. To my mind, it should be around 125p, given the prospective contributions of cascadura, chinook, coho and royston. Once these are proved up and producing I could see the sp double to ca 250p,

Would appreciate a summary of the announcement by those with knowledge and experience. Is this positive or do we need to read between the lines? It is somewhat benign in nature and, as previously posted, perhaps PB has learned to tone down his enthusiasm in such statements.

Given FM's chequered history in the industry, it could be said that the company was taking a gamble in appointing her to the role in the first place. That she subsequently oversaw the myriad of technical and geological problems which have befallen IOG over the past 3 years was, bluntly, a disaster and as others have said, she should have gone considerably earlier, even before AH. I am also not sold on EI - his experience is financial and not technical - and hopefully the company will find someone with real industry experience to fill the role quickly. Further, I would question the decision to add 2 more NEDs at this time. Management need to focus 100% on Blyth 2 and then back on southwark, not spend time recruiting NEDs who will have little to contribute to the current challenges.

Given a market cap of just over £200m, versus the known or potential of Coho, Cascadura, Chinook, Royston, Kraken and others (which, based on the historic utterings of PB could be worth £billions - his "wall of cash" comments refer), this is a classic example of how the poor management of a company, specifically in terms of information release and information channels, has resulted in a company which is doubted by the market and a share price which is effectively unsupported by the MM's. This share price was around £1.80 not so long ago and has consistently declined since then courtesy of irregular and consequently doubtful information, resulting in a value nowhere near the potential of the company's assets. Yet PB and his colleagues continue to believe that making statements within social media channels or in televised interviews are the way forward.
Yes, we are all holding for the long term but, seriously, this share price falls well short of predictions.

Significant selling over the past couple of weeks, in all probability by II's - led by LO. That said, the absence of TR1's makes it difficult to identify who is selling and who is buying - possibly, the recent sales volume, given the bargain share price, has convinced many PI's to step in, most if not all under the 3% threshold. What is interesting is the lack of buying by IOG management, which tells a story in itself and suggests that, this time round, those in charge are looking at the second Blythe well as make or break for the company and yet to be convinced about its prospects.

"series" not "serious" - bloody autocorrect!

Fiona Macaulay, a geologist no less, continues in her role of Chair of the Board, having overseen one of the longest serious of operational ****ups, many geology related, endured by any company within the industry in recent years. It does seem to me that, having put together this remedial plan for Blythe and, subsequently, Southwark, FM needs to be replaced by someone who knows what needs to be done. Indeed, might it be time to replace the two non-exec directors as well?

Has anyone got estimates for the potential fpv's for Cascadura, Royston and Kraken?

deltalo, Are you aware of the history of this company over the last couple of years? Problem after problem after problem resulting in much reduced gas flow from Blythe, Elgood shut in and now Southwark A2 capped. Southwark A1 development drilling was halted because of fluid loss downhole. Accordingly, can't quite appreciate your enthusiasm, except that if you are coming in at 4-5p the upside looks good. However, this company is still a big risk.

To all my fellow long term holders and posters, IOG has been a classic tale of woe and one can only hope that a bid for the company at this price puts us all out of our misery. What we have experienced is, essentially, serious mismanagement and an inability by industry people to deliver their knowledge, skills and experience in understanding and dealing with issues which are not unique within the sector. We have endured bad news after bad news and watched the share price slip from ca 40p to 5p over the past year - a drop of ca 88% - during which we have had to watch competitors producing gas at record prices.
Having been in here at the beginning with a low average price, I will lose some money but, thankfully, not a great deal. To all those fellow investors who are sitting on averages of 15p and above, I commiserate with your pain and anguish. I am now selling my holding in this wretched company.

Masks, Let's hope so!

Meant to add that I apologise for being negative but, having been on this journey since listing, I have seen enough to put me off investing in o&g startups for life.