Member Info for aligator

Corpse, Given your ability to read this share (which has certainly eluded me and many others), what do you think this no brainer will do next?

Johno, you are, in your desire to prove otherwise, right. However, my point is that, despite the good news over the past year, the share price is now trading at just 55% of last August's high of 93p and 29% of the 175p high.

Maybe you have an opinion as to why?

Ayecuramba, I hope you are right and good luck in your investment. However, my concern remains that for some considerable time now, going back to first gas from Cascadura and and before, people have been making such positive comments, only to have their hopes dashed. A year ago today, the sp was 64p and, on the back of Cacsadura progress, climbed to 93p in early August. Since then, despite Cascadura completion and the drilling of further wells on the discovery, the sp steadily declined to 40p on 5 February. It was only the announcement of the signing of an increased term loan agreement that resulted in the sp recovering to 51p but the reality is that, despite Cascadura, other wells and increased loan availability, the sp remains sits at just 55% of the August high. There is little logic for this scenario and one almost gets the feeling that the market is being controlled for one reason or another.

That said, as pointed out in my earlier post, I don't think the BoD of TXP has the commercial savvy to deal with this issue. It may be technically proficient but from an investor/investment perspective (remembering that all directors are shareholders) it has failed.

Thanks scored, I will take a hard look.

Supersport, I did get some cheap shares but sold when they hit 175p, making a tidy profit. That was about 3+ years ago and I decided to get back in over the past 30 months. My average is now closer to 80p so hoping that the 90-100p targets are met this year, if not early next.

Supersport, Agree. However, it is the lack of interest from the IIs and MMs as well as short term players which is why the shares are so thinly traded and why the sp is where it is. The challenge is many fold. Historical promises of giant reservoirs and walls of cash which never materialised, the desire by some brokers to value the company based on return on capital and other relatively inappropriate measures and the perceived lack of a concerted campaign by the company to get this daily improving story in front of some of the big investment funds and institutions.

As a long tern holder, I have found this to be one of the most frustrating companies I have invested into and I beginning to form the view that the board, while technically sound, does not possess the financial/commercial nouse to sell the company to the market. When you consider where this sp has been - 175p - it is quite laughable to consider that it now trades at over 70% less notwithstanding achievements over the past 12-18 months and the potential of what lies in the future. There are broker targets of 90-100p and I have written to Malcy twice for an explanation as to why he has a target of 200p, but got no response. Probably because, like us, he is puzzled by what has occurred over this period.

Agree corpse. Yet again, focus placed on something which should otherwise be considered housekeeping. That said, it is clear that the company has faced issues in getting this facility increase (ca 4 months to negotiate a loan term sheet?) and my question is why the company is dealing with a local bank and not a major international oil and gas bank?

Your point on buyers is relevant too. The market, in the form of the MM's and big II's, has not bought this story yet and share price progress will remain laboured until this is the case. Frankly, given the number of presentations, broadcast or printed, you have to ask yourself if the company is presenting itself in the best possible light. If I was on the BoD I would certainly be asking questions about lack of perception in the market.

Supersport, Agree. PB has much to answer for in terms of his ridiculous historical statements. Hopefully, he will probably be proved right over time but the reality is that he was promising walls of cash and giant reservoirs years ago. Further, there is just one month left for the company to confirm agreement on the increased loan facility, although, hopefully, the increasing cash flow will limit the requirement for such.

As a sizeable long term holder, I am hoping the fortunes of the sp improve for the better during 2024 and beyond. However, let's be honest, it has been a rocky road since the highs of 170p plus a few years ago.

I continue to believe that the the historical over-optimistic predictions of PB has created a legacy within the market of not believing the story until it actually unfolds, hence why the sp, despite all the positives announced recently, continues to trawl the 40/low 50p range. Talk of a doubling of the sp in the next few months is founded (based on risked NAV) but, given the experience since early 2022, will probably only occur if and when the predictions come to fruition.

I repeat, I raised a valid point. However, you are so pregnant with your own importance you simply ignore this fact. I can only presume you are underwater on this stock big time.

Johnoxxx, Try not to be a prat in everything your do in life, including your rants on this board. I have raised a perfectly legitimate question which is ratified/supported by other posters who clearly feel the same. For the record, the market is currently showing a 9.26% decline.

Porschefund, It obviously does not help having few big II's of funds involved in the stock and I guess the thin trading this has experienced is a result of that, or do you have other views?

For the sp to slip ca 8% this morning on the back of nothing, or does the market know something private investors don't?

You have to conclude that TXP appears to have been singled out for such treatment as a result of historical optimism which, to a large degree (walls of cash, giant reservoirs, etc), has so far been unproven.

Haddy68, While this increase is welcome, it was never going to skyrocket due to i) the continuous unfulfilled legacy of optimism and expectation of big things to come over the past 3 years and ii) the lack of of big investors, without which the shares will continue to be thinly traded. What is needed here is for one or two of the thundering herd to take note of the company.

During the last 33 months there have been all sorts of positive presentations and optimistic announcements, Cascacdura coming on line and other potential reservoirs announced. Yet, during that time, the share price has declined by almost 80% and currently stands at just one-third of its estimated NAV. Why?

FCFY, You are right but the figures are not exactly the wall of cash so brashly projected by PB. Further, Cascadura production has been lower than the lowest predicted rate and the "incredible potential " of Royston was summarily consigned to the dustbin as it was "not commercial". It is these unfulfilled predictions which have turned off the institutions and brokers.

The board of TXP has a fiduciary duty to protect the interest of its shareholders. Having a market cap of about 33% of the NAV does not look as if the board i job.

Technically, the company appears well served. However, in most other respects, not least its PR profile and market perception, there are real shortcomings and I think that the BoD should be paying far more attention to thisuch matters than appears to be the case.

Johno, We obviously view TXP, if not investing in general, differently. The share price is now at 40p, a drop of almost 5% on the back of what PB said yesterday. This is what has happened time and time again after an RNS from the company or a presentation from PB. Do you really think this is acceptable?

The reality is that the analysts and the market in general have grown tired of "walls of cash", "mighty reservoirs" and other deluded and unsubstantiated comments made by PB in the past and this price drop is a classic reminder of his history .

Yes, the company reflects great prospects but, unless it has the industrial wherewithal and financial capacity to develop them, it will continue to drift along as we have seen over the past 2-3 years,

As for the enlarged credit facility, the company has been in discussions on this since, possibly, late October/early November. Yet, here we are some 2 1/2 months later and it has not even received a term sheet from Republic Bank. Even accounting for T&T's mañana approach to just about everything, this just does not add up. I know from a career in financing that this is unusual.

Others comment about everything coming right over time. Just to remind us all, we were making the same comment 3 years ago.

Another unimpressive presentation by PB so will not be surprised to see the sp slip on opening , as with just about every RNS/presentation over the past couple of years. There is something inherently worrying about PB's presentation style which the market does not like. His answers to questions at the end were not wholly convincing and his confirmation that TXP still does not have agreement for the enlarged credit facility from Republic Bank will unnerve analysts. PB tried to defend this by stating that the 19 December RNS had commented that it would be concluded within the first quarter. However to not be able to comment on progress almost 5 weeks later is not going to fill people with optimism.

This is a solid company with solid history and solid prospects. So why is its market cap a fraction of it risked NAV?

Corpse, I totally agree. I don't think the senior team has any real PR experience and the role and performance of FTI Consulting certainly raise more questions than it answers.

I have said to the company before that it needs to romance the market with a view to securing more investment by the large institutions and brokers as, currently, there is no real market for the shares, despite the great story behind it. This is what the company needs to focus on but currently does not seem to comprehend the necessity.

Sturm, Let's just hope there is no negative news in PB's presentation as, given previous RNS's and public presentations, the sp could tank. Let's also be realistic here, TXP's public profile and publicity programmes have been a disaster and needs a lot of work. Not convinced of the value contribution of FTI Consulting.