Member Info for aligator

I can't get involved in any debate about whether the Shell deal is good or bad as I am not technically trained and rely on data provided by experts, which can be parlayed into $ revenues and profits. However, when a deal is announced and the sp declines, that is generally a sign that the market is not, or yet to be, convinced.

Thus, is has been interesting reading the posts since the RNS, varying between doubt and positivity, including those that view the BOD as having done nothing wrong to date and that it is the market (i.e the specialist brokers and analysts) who have failed to recognise the turnaround...

I have no problem being tagged with dunderhead as being constantly negative about TXP because that is the reality of its performance over the past 3 years or so. Had the sp movement been reversed and we had gone from 23p to ca 175p I, like all shareholders, would be a very happy man. But that that has just not happened and, despite all the achievements of that period, we still have company wallowing in uncertainty, led by a man and BoD who have simply failed their shareholders to date.

Share price somewhat confirms that the market has yet to be convinced about the TXP story, but others may have differing views. That said, there are still many investors (including me) who are hoping that 2025 will be a year of recovery.

However, with a marketcap of just £50m, the company is now becoming increasingly vulnerable to a low bid takeover by any one of the big operators in T&T (which would be pocket change for them), mid-cap and other players in the region or even international companies looking to enter the T&T picture. Some will argue that political risk is a possible deterrent, but, with many major companies having operated in the country successfully for decades, this would not be a real barrier to entry.

My view is that PB has bought himself and his BoD colleagues some time to revitalise the company, but this has to happen within the first quarter of next year. Otherwise, despite the ridiculously low valuation now in play, the sp could fall even further.

Many of my critics will find this hard to believe but I actually thought yesterday's presentation was a half decent, proficient assessment of where TXP stands now and what lies ahead, with focus on monetising assets which, according to them, are now easier to evaluate as a result of historical well performance , etc. As one poster noted, TXP is a very different animal now compared to the heady days of 175p, and this presentation gave the impression that those in charge are considerably more realistic, if not contrite, about targets and how to achieve them.

The one area of concern is debt but, as PB stated, given that they repaid ca$7m this year, the additional $10m now being sought is, effectively, a net $3m. That said, if the forecasts are correct then the 2025 wells should be repaid within a year or so.

To my mind, PB has now got to regain the trust and confidence of shareholders and has bought himself a relative grace period to deliver. Anything less than what was presented yesterday should otherwise result in his removal.

Not one question about market cap, share price, etc. One questioner got 3 questions - all about ability to sell assets. Many questions about the bridge. But not one question allowed about PB/BoD performance or the market cap of £48m!

Johnoxxx, I find it interesting that I can push your buttons so easily. If you read my Friday post you will see that I predicted exactly what has occurred. It is not about volume, it is about market makers establishing prices based on what they know and the level of demand and supply. Clearly, information leaked late last week - that is probably acknowledged by most posters on this board. This happens all the time in AIM, it is renowned for that, and if your own investment criteria don't want to deal with such skullduggery then you should not be risking your money in such investment market.

I can only assume that, like me and many others shareholders, you are underwater big time. We can only hope that, somehow, the company does pull the proverbial rabbit out of a hat but I suspect any recovery will take months if not consign 2025 to just getting back to pre-Trinity price levels.

I said on Friday that the continuing weakness in the sp was info leak and that subsequent neutral or negative news on Tuesday would tank the sp. I was right in that assessment but wrong on the day, courtesy of yet another damning RNS today. Of course, my Friday post got the the usual wrath, indignation and rage from the usual suspects but, that said, the closing price suggests the initial reaction was overdone (and buyers at 22p would have achieved ca 18% by the close of business) and, who knows, the market may buy some of PB's presentation tomorrow to bring us back towards Friday's close, although I somehow doubt it.

The stark reality is that, over the past few years, the interests of TXP's shareholders have been effectively thrown to the wind by the company's BoD and senior management in their rush to install infrastructure and achieve production and while I feel that PB's time has come and that the BoD needs to be trimmed and installed with more capable people, I agree with dunderhead that now is not the time and that this process needs to be carefully thought through, including possibly having board members on the ground in T&T.

Let's be honest, over the years, TXP has traversed from market favourite (175p early 2021) to a relative sh*t show (resulting in a loss of ca 87% in value) and I am guessing that a lot of shareholders have lost money believing what PB proclaimed. This is why he has to go.

And I suspect that most posters on this site are now, like me, underwater, some, like me, significantly.

And before the trolls start their outraged diatribes at me and others who have castigated PB and the BoD in the past, I would simply point out that, if you look back at the history of RNS's from this company over the years you will see similar repetitions of what has happened here this morning.

There is no point trying to argue the toss about the RNS except to say that PB has to go and the presentation tomorrow is an ample opportunity for shareholders to vent this position. All they need to do is register and make the proposition to the organiser. If we get enough putting forward this demand it will hopefully start the ball rolling. Simply put something has to happen.

Dbh1956dbh, Thank you for your ungracious words, which are actually libellous. I would tread very carefully if I was you.

Not looking good and, on the assumption of info leak, would imply that there is bad news coming next Tuesday.

I meant to add that the sp hit 38p on 11 November. Less than 4 weeks later it is 28.5p. That is a loss of 25%. During that time no statements from the company, no major share buys by directors or senior executives (except minor share option purchases) and no evidence of spudding of the two wells scheduled for Q4. Frankly, you could not make it up.

Ss, I think you can say I have been constant in my views, although, like you, I just hope I am wrong. This is becoming nonsensical and I am equally flummoxed, but history has shown TXP repeatedly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in terms of presentations and news release.

PB's presentation on Tuesday is now critical and, if posters here have sizeable shareholdings at risk, they should be taking the opportunity to shower him with questions not just about geology, reservoirs and production but also about BoD size and effectiveness, senior executive effectiveness, corporate effectiveness, public relations, shareholder interaction and market awareness. Frankly, as I stated before, PB should be taken to task here.

The strong inference here is that the market just does not buy PB's rhetoric and is questioning year end achievements versus predictions. Unlike many, I don't see this recovering tomorrow, indeed if bad news is leaking expect it to go south even further. If PB then corroborates the bad news next week, this sp could tank.

What needs to be remembered is that, throughout the last 3 years so, PB, the BoD and senior executives believe they have been putting the interests of shareholders above their own (as is the BoD's fiduciary duty), when in fact they have been pursuing objectives which have almost always been late in achievement and inevitably never shown the value attributed to them. When you have a BoD which, despite the company's performance shortcomings, believes it is succeeding and outperforming its peers you know there is something untoward. TXP is now a sitting duck for a low ball takeover by one of the mid-cap/large operators in T&T or by a similar company looking to pick up assets on the cheap.

PB should be verbally keel hauled next week for getting into this situation.

Grocer makes some good points. My concern is that we are now reliant on good news going forward because we know from experience what will happen if there are negatives. This leads to the question, where do we believe the buying pressure will come from if the news is positive?

Ps At 29.75p the market cap is equivalent to just 19 months' revenue based on the £44.7 estimated for 2024.

Ss I am aligned with your thoughts, just waiting for whatever to jolt the sp. As you say, what has been achieved is impressive but the question remains - why is the sp trawling 30p?

As for me, I am actually a light hearted soul but spent a 40 year career in investment banking where the starting point on any deal was always negative (risk v reward) so I suspect, my approach to investing reflects this subconscious trait...

Ss, Always delighted to get your support. That said, I can only presume that you, me and many others on this board remain mystified as to why the sp is where it is. As I said in previous posts, I had been informed that North has sold down completely (from what I believe to be an impeccable source) but even I am now beginning to think otherwise as 30.25p just does not correlate with what has occurred during this year, what is contained in the report by Cavendish and what is predicted to come.

My concern now is that TXP has become a sitting duck for a low ball takeover bid. Its potential is substantial (200p according to some) but the whole company can currently be bought for ca £70m (i.e the current market cap) plus a realistic premium. If this was 50% the purchase price would be 45p per share.

I think we are all agreed that the BoD of TXP is overweight and does not appear strong. Indeed, I would go so far as to venture that the directors are not currently fulfilling their fiduciary duties, including putting the company's and its shareholders' interests ahead of their own by virtue of the current market cap.

The company's PR has never been exceptional and historical overstatements have combined to produce a lethargy among brokers and analysts. This may well be the reason why there are no major investors among the company's shareholders.

A positive endorsement from Cavendish, supported by an array of data predicting growth through to the end of the year and beyond. What is not to like about this publication, except maybe the modest target price of 53p when Cannacord and Malcy have only just recently talked around 200p?

This all suggests that 2025/2026, in terms of near term achievability, should be solid years for the company and let's hope that the its market cap begins to reflect its true value.

GGG, I have an impeccable source who confirms that North has sold its holding. Unfortunately I am unable to provide his details so one either believes the statement or not.

Let's be honest, we have a had a lot of of theories over the past few months or so about the sp's performance and Trinity did not help. Further, all manner of analysts, chartists, algorithm traders and private investors have hinted or predicted upward trends but this has just not happened. I simply don't have an answer except to say, as I have before, that it is possible that PB's historic, unfulfilled, over the top predictions have hung like a millstone around TXP's shoulders.

I am of course delighted that Cannacord and Malcy both target 200p in the long run and have enough belief in my own value analysis to hang in there despite what has occurred.

North has sold its holding so what is now holding the sp back?

Put it this way, overheard in a bar…