Member Info for aligator

Tidd83, As Sturm notes, Malcy did state that he met PB/JS while they were in London meeting investors. However, I can also confirm that I heard this information direct from the company, so this is fact not fiction. As an aside, why would I seek to misrepresent such information?

Anyone else realise that, following PB/JS's trip to the UK to meet with investors, the share price has, once again, dropped on what can only have been positive news presented at such meetings? There has been an historical pattern of sp decline after past positive announcements (Cascadura development, first gas, new discoveries, increased bank loan etc) yet the company appears indifferent to the impact of such. I have suggested before that the company needs to seriously consider its media and PR strategies and, indeed, its nominated agents. In addition, it is evident to me that, courtesy of his past over optimistic predictions, PB is also suffering from a lack of confidence among the market makers and brokers.

SimonT, Thanks for sharing, although, having read through it several times, I have concluded that it does not really bring any new information to the fore. What is missing is Malcy's sp prediction, not least given that his last promulgation was a target of 200p. The absence of this from his statement suggest that he is backing off this optimistic number.

Can anyone confirm if Paul Baay and James Shipka are currently in London talking with certain shareholders? If they are indeed here there would have been a golden opportunity to present themselves to all shareholders.

Ss, Fair comment and probably more prospect of a spike than a fall at this moment in time which, in theory, should benefit the sp but with this company who knows?

Supersport, What do you base your prediction on? Recent commentaries from both the market and crude traders are that oil prices will gradually decrease after April 2024 with minor stock builds because global production is increasing more than consumption. Further, they forecast that stocks will increase by 110,000 b/d from 2Q24 through 4Q24 and by 280,000 b/d in 2025, putting more pressure on the price of a barrel.

Highland matt, If investing or lending money into project type companies (eg. oil and gas developers) was based solely on the current year financials, no one would risk their money. Such investments are invariably based on the npv of verified reserves which is why so many shareholders are puzzled by the current valuation of a company which had to raise equity and loans to fund the development of its assets on the basis that the returns would accumulate over later years - that is classic project finance. So to place a current valuation of ca £110m on a company whose known reserves have npv's considerably larger than that figure just simply does not make sense and suggests there is an ulterior motive, as SimonT suggests.

Tidd83, The problem is that those among us who are LTH's have repeated your rerate comment time and time again going back years, all to little or no avail. Frankly, I am at a loss to understand why a company with such a promising reserve portfolio, current oil and gas production, an ongoing production well programme and established infrastructure is valued so poorly which gives some credence to Geld's comments. Let's be realistic, the paucity and content of news flow from TXP has been p*ss poor and, for the past couple of years, the sale of shares on positive news has taken the sp backwards. One could almost begin to think that, as Geld comments, there is some ulterior motive among management.

Of course, we are not helped by the absence of the big guys which means that the shares continue to be thinly traded.

I am not a geologist or petroleum engineer so have a limited understanding of the prospective decline curve of the Cascadura formation (I appreciate there are various wells) and other discoveries. Is there anyone willing and able to comment on the current/predicted rates, etc?

For those who have not read Malcy's comments, here are a three selected paragraphs which will hopefully provide all shareholders with some reassurance that their respective analyses of the company are not wrong. I specifically find it interesting that, in light of the impact of previous RNS's and the reduction in price targets by brokers, Malcy sees fit to maintain his target price of 200p.

"This is another company announcement that the market has failed to appreciate given how far forward the company is moving with its very substantial asset base at Cascadura in Trinidad. At the Cascadura-3ST1 delineation well which has reached TD with total sand thickness of c. 900ft in the target Herrera formation, and as above crossing the C-fault, and is being cased with production testing ready for 3Q of this year."

"Also work is being carried out on the flowline from the Cascadura C surface location to the natural gas processing facility which will also be completed in the 3rd quarter of 2024. There is a theme running through here, as successful development wells are being drilled and prepared for production as the production facility is being upgraded."

"Touchstone is developing a substantial and highly profitable business at Cascadura and whilst I appreciate that there were some delays in the original development there is now evidence that the drilling programme is putting production in place as this announcement points to. With a Target Price of 200p I’m confident that shareholders will be rewarded by their patience this year."

A somewhat limp RNS but preferable to the out and out optimism by PB in the past. That said, the market is clearly not impressed despite the positives contained therein. This reaction highlights the credibility challenge that PB and the company face in selling the company story as a whole.

The high pressure kick on the Cas-3ST1 well was unfortunate but subsequently sidetracked. Likewise the less than anticipated results from the Cas-1ST1 and Cas Deep-1 wells was disappointing and both issues have not gone unnoticed by the market, which is why the sp has dropped.

Long term I still believe that TXP will impress but the road to that nirvana is littered with the detritus of the past. Notwithstanding, I will add share at this price.

If I had a

Historically, the lack of news from the company has, inevitably, been bad news. I sincerely hope that this is not the case again. Either way, this feast and famine approach to publishing news is unprofessional and has a considerably larger impact on a share which is thinly traded by private investors.

One can only hope that the big boys have TXP on their screens and will move in once we get positive news on Cascadura, including the new wells and downhole refurbishment.

But how many times has that been said before...

Something happening

Ss, I would suggest it was the market that took the sp to 175p based on the ludicrous procrastinations by PB. Yes, lots of people made lots of early money but the last 5 years have frankly been a disaster, although I fully acknowledge that we appear (nothing ever taken for granted) to be on the cusp of something special.

Ss, Not sure I understand the intent of your post but do agree with the last 3 comments, although just remember that this is a share price that has fallen from 175p to 90p to 88p to 65p to 49p in 5 years.... For that reason, I can understand the frustrations of long term shareholders (including me) but the relative delight of short termers who have been able to accumulate at sub 50p for some considerable time.

That said, let's be specific. Whomever is responsible for TXP's media and public relations should have been fired long ago along with its broker. The lack of a cohesive information publication strategy has been simply woeful for years which has established significant jitters among investors including, importantly, the big guys.

My take on PB is that he is legend in his own mind but surrounded by yes men (and women of course...), creating a parallel to Hans Christian Anderson's naked king.

Wcgw, From the historic highs of ca 175p (based on pure speculation), the sp dropped to 90p in 2021, 88p in 2022, 66p last year and now languishes around 50p. When you consider that the last 12 months have seen first gas from Cascadura, the drilling of additional production wells in that discovery and, inter alia, the renewal of an increased term loan, providing the company with funding for the next 12 months and beyond, it is somewhat mystifying as to why the sp/market cap is so low, albeit the the lack of major investment houses is contributing to this situation.

Have written off my investment in this company and consigned the shares to the "Also ran" file. That said, nobody will be more pleased to be proved wrong than me if, during the next few months, HE1 turns around and the sp heads north. So please, no deramping accusations from the usual suspects.

On the subject of progress, I thought I would add the following quote from the 6 month return statement " The Rukwa Project has been de-risked by the 2023/24 drilling campaign, which has identified a working helium system." I find it fascinating that those in charge seek to identify a "working helium system" but, very specifically, do not include the word "commercial". This either suggests that the company had not had time to do the calculations or has already done so and does not feel able to define Rukwa as a "commercial working helium system". Off course the usual suspects will be up in arms about such negativity but the reality is that LB has, in parallel, gone into her shell again, as acknowledged and identified by other posters.

Is this a huge con?

Ss, I would argue that 3-4 years waiting is one definition of patience but acknowledge that we are in abetter place now than ever before.

Photo, Agree with much of what you posted. PB does appear to have become more cautious about what he says to the market, given his verbal disasters of the past. However, we all know that in the investment world "no news is generally not good news" which gives me a slight shiver on what is happening at the drill platform. Of course, I hope I am wrong and the rest of this year and next are when all our patience finally pays off. That said, this is what posters have been posting for several years which just leaves a crumb of doubt about progress.

As for PB not having any control over the sp, I would comment that TXP's interaction with the MMs and the IIs over the years has been both limited and amateur to say the least and could have been developed far more professionally. That is one of the prime reasons why the sp is where it is, there is simply a lack of large shareholders to exert big ticket trading. Notwithstanding, it cannot be long before TXP emerges on the radar screens of the herd which should be good news.