Member Info for aligator

And another kick in the boll0cks of the shareholders

Stas20, I guess my point is that, post Trinity, if PB and his merry men fook this up the sp could be dredging 10p if not below.

There are a lot of posters here who, like me, have serious doubts about PB and the strength of his executive team and BoD. As somebody wrote earlier, the sp is now almost back to the pre RNS price which gives you a hint of where it will end up if the CB deal is not done.

GGG, I am an ex oil and gas banker and therefore have a decent appreciation of what is involved in loan deals of this nature. By the way, I enjoy Johno's attempts to insult me - it has got to the stage that if I said the Pope wears white he would probably disagree...

As to the loan, in normal circumstances TXP would have approached Republic early to gauge its appetite for such a loan (before it formally approached Shell). Republic clearly expressed an interest as discussions are still ongoing. However, why is TXP still unable to state that it has agreed a term sheet with Republic and why has Republic failed, to date, to issue a commitment subject to documentation? I ask this because the RNS state significant progress but does not even comment about whether the loan documentation is in negotiation. Why all the silence?

Thus, in answer to your question, I continue to have doubts about the interaction between TXP and Republic which, should the loan not materialise, would be the beginning of the end for PB and his hapless BoD and possible bring about a crash of the company itself.

Here's another scenario to consider. The RNS stated that TXP has "...made significant progress with its current lender regarding the financing of the Acquisition". This is not exactly positive wording for a process which presumably commenced ca 6 months ago, i.e. prior to negotiations with Shell (one would presume TXP would have been in early contact with Republic Bank to sound out the prospect of borrowing the money). It gives no indication of whether a term sheet has been agreed, whether Republic Bank has issued a commitment to lend subject to documentation or whether the documentation discussions are in an advanced stage. Perhaps Shell has picked up on this and requested PB to come to London to explain the delay, hence today's meeting and the background to the extension of the long stop date.

Obviously, there is no confirmatory evidence that this is the reality but it is worthwhile thinking on the potential issues which could arise if Republic, for whatever reason, will not or cannot lend the money.

Hardolestation, Your rudeness aside, I was making the point that, in the 13 December RNS, the seller was identified as BG Overseas Holdings Limited, whereas today's RNS now describes that company as a "third party". I merely sought the views of others.

Interesting that the 13 December RNS states that TXP "...has entered into an agreement with BG Overseas Holdings Limited to acquire all the share capital of Shell Trinidad Central Block Limited ("STCBL") (the "Acquisition")" but today's RNS now states "...the Company's wholly owned Trinidadian subsidiary signed a Share Purchase Agreement (the "Agreement") to acquire 100 percent of STCBL from a third party (the "Acquisition")." Why the new secrecy surrounding BG Overseas Holdings Limited? Anyone have a view?

Ss, I hope you are right. However, trying to be realistic in terms of known events, I cannot help but think that even a combination of the CB closure and Gas 4 success will be unlikely to ignite any great recovery. In terms of the current sp, a recovery to 30p would represent a 50% uptick and 100% at 40p. These would be fantastic returns for recent investors around 20p but, for many long term holders, I think would still keep them submerged.

Sadly, I now believe that £1 and above are years away.

Certainly not decamping but trying to be rational in my thinking.

Ss, Well presented and considered letter. Did you deliberately decide not to mention the issue of Casc 4, whose fate now appears uncertain given radio silence on its progress.

Paul, or his office, is/are morally, if not legally, obliged to respond and it will be interesting to read his/their reply.

John, The bleatings of a frustrated, worried man.

Stas20, As usual, solid, logical input on the issue, which I appreciate. However, rather than panicking, I would suggest that the market has assessed the matter carefully (this is what analysts do for a living and there are two many players for them all to get it wrong) and decided that 20p is an adequate price. Yes, the signing of the documentation may trigger an uptick but, let's be realistic, beyond 30p would be a 33% jump, which I find unlikely int he current environment.

Johno, You ask "Where did I say you hadn't been here for long?" The simple answer is in your post timed at 13:48 which states "Haha bless Aligator, for anyone that hasn’t been here too long..." It seems to me you are the one suffering from memory issues, exacerbated by your frustration with TXP.

Ps I am in fact a substantial shareholder (not in the range of your 1.7 million) but have basically written this investment off on the basis that it might come good in 3-5 years.

I will dignify Johno's fully anticipated response (which harbours on desperation) with one response - I base my assessment of sp future performance on the FACT (i.e. not fiction) that the share price has cascaded from 40p to less then 20p despite all the Cascadura announcements in 2024 and 2025 and those about the Central Block deal. Trinity did not help and displayed a naivety by the BoD which cost the company money. If you think this was lost on the analysts and market makers then you truly have a dazzling pair of rose tinted spectacles.

As I also said before, Shell does not simply sell off performing assets without very good reason (invariably an anticipated problem) and the fact that, ca 6 months into the contract negotiations and documentation, the sp has gone down even further speaks volumes for what the market thinks of the deal.

For the record Johno, I have been (and remain) a shareholder in TXP since early 2019 and a poster on here for the same period so I don't know where you are coming from when you say that I have not been here for too long.

Risk analysis is as much to do with historic performance as it is to future potential, except that the future has yet to happen and many things can negatively impact an outcome. TXP is a classic case - dotted historic performance and always cake in the future. The problem is that so few of the predictions by the company have been realised and it is now basing its current hopes on Cascadura and the the Central Block acquisition. Forget about installed plant and infrastructure, higher production and higher price gas contracts - they have yet to be proven and it is clear that the market gives simply little value to both projects.

Once people pull their heads out of their rear ends, (Johno please note), they will come to realise that this is not going to be a short term rags to riches story but one that will drag on for years and probably never come close to achieving the sp of 4 years ago.

Frankly, the TXP BoD has shamefully neglected their primary duty to shareholders and, as I posted earlier, it is the ego of PB, as CEO, which will possibly drag this company into the mire.

Fact - Since early 2021, the sp has declined from 176p to 20.5p, a market cap decline of almost 90%.

Fact - In the period since 2021, PB has made fanciful, if not ludicrous, statements about huge reservoirs and walls of cash flow which were never met.

Fact - The Trinity bid and subsequent lapse of offer in 2024 was costly and a major distraction to TXP management, if not an embarrassment to the Company.

Fact - Cascadura has thrown up various problems during the drilling programmes of its wells to date and the latest would appear to suggest that the the technical professionals within the Company have not learned any lessons whatsoever. However, the company does not appear to feel that the latest issue is worthy of an RNS. What else is going on behind the scenes?

Fact - Despite all that the Company's shareholders have faced over the years, including the massive diminution in market cap in the last 4 years, the Company continues to state that it is outperforming it peers.

Fact - PB has never commented on the plight of the Company's long term shareholders, yet continues to receive a remuneration package, including a salary of almost $370k and generous stock options, which is 260% above industrial indices.

Probability - Any success with the latest Cascadura well and/or the closing of the Central Block deal with Shell, has probably been discounted within the sp already. This suggest that any recovery beyond 30p is unlikely in 2025.

They say that that the biggest single threat to any company is the CEO's ego. That is clearly the situation here, yet PB continues to ignore his prime fiduciary duty of preserving the capital of the Company's shareholders and compounds this by continuing to make further fanciful claims about the Company's future.

This is the classic definition of a clusterf*ck.

Of any board of directors is the preservation and accumulation of shareholder equity. This board has presided over a near 90% drop in the company's market cap in just over 4 years. During that period it has made many spurious statements about enormous reservoirs and walls of cash flow deriving therefrom, it has inevitably missed its own drilling and development deadlines and it has sought to acquire third party assets without success - all at considerable cost to the balance sheet. Aside from the drilling on Cascadura, the company has now entered into an agreement to buy the the central block from Shell (who rarely dispose of assets unless they have peaked in value or face future issues), the terms of which are basically unknown to shareholders but which, it would appear, the company is placing increasing reliance upon in terms of its future production.

When questioned about its performance over the past 4-5 years, the company maintains that it is out-performing its peers, many, if not most, of which have experienced viable market cap growth during the same period. It is no wonder therefore that the market has treated TXP with so much scepticism and driven the sp to where it is today.

I can only assume that, like me, most posters here are underwater on this stock. Rerates have been discussed at length on this board but, frankly, as I said before, while I can see some recovery towards 30p with a successful CB closing, I find it difficult to look beyond that in terms of sp. Malcy and in-house brokers have previously mentioned 150-200p but this just seems to be pie in the sky right now.

I just hope I am wrong or this is going to be a sizeable loss within my portfolio.

This is what was contained within the RNS dated 13 December - "The Acquisition will have an effective date of January 1, 2025, has a four-month long stop date [i.e. end April], and is expected to close during the second quarter of 2025 [i.e. before 30 June]." I sort of took these as deadlines, albeit given past failures I am expecting these dates to be pushed back.

Global markets slump not helping but predictions of 19p now realistic. Those who flooded in around 22p plus now staring at ca 10% loss.

If I had serious funds I would add to my holding at this price since global markets will recover and anticipated Cas and CB news will hopefully bring this back to ca 30p. As for a larger rerate, while I sincerely hope so I have less confidence now than earlier this year.

No loan negotiation should take 6 months. This suggests that it is the blind leading the blind from a processing perspective.

I would imagine Republic would want a full recourse structure, involving all of TXP's assets (effectively a corporate loan). TXP would probably have preferred a non-recourse structure but capitulated to Republic's demands. But all that should have taken no longer than 4 weeks, which suggests that terms and conditions and documentation have taken some 4 months without resolution. That is worrying to say the least.

There is no way that TXP would have announced the prospective deal on 13 December unless it had had previous meetings with Republic to sound out its appetite. Assuming that these commenced late October/early November, we are now into the 6th month of negotiation. Either way, I have previously questioned earlier interactions with Republic. They are either incredibly slow or incompetent in the structuring and negotiating of such loan facilities. That said, I am not sure there is much by way of experience within the TXP hierarchy to give comfort on their side.