Member Info for Aldebaran

What happens to that 75p if avacta do a 400-1 share consolidation Bline?

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No nerves struck, I bought here at 180p, sold around 1600p and have an average of 52p at avacta. Im sat pretty mate. Just jostle with low iq people like you to pass a bit of time.

Read that again... WE EXPECT (greater efficacy and improved safety).

Brimming with confidence and rightly so. 4 years of data from the pathfinder now coupled with outstanding preclinical data AND trial informed by AI.

Were days away from dosing patients with arguably the most exciting new oncology drug in.. well a long time.

Given its potency and the outstanding delivery system we really are on the cusp of something ground braking here.

If it performs just a fraction as well in human as it did in animal it will revolutionise oncology and make an enormous difference to patients and families around the world. Its that profound. Game on!

Cant rush these things pumpkin. What were the original timeframes involved? Oh wait we weren't provided any so cant hold anyone to account. Could be another 6 months of cash burning and trial stumbling for all we know.

P.s. you can all thank Bline for my return 👍

I almost forgot about this little sideshow until he rocked up on the Avacta bored saying how bad things were for everyone their. Which given todays Rns looks incredibly stupid 🤡 😅

First patient expected dosed by end March, exactly as planned. 👏

Https://x.com/i/status/1928018557234729206

Doesn't look like interest rates are coming down any time soon. Infact its more likely they will go up further hampering this sector. No help to buy scheme on the cards or anything either I just dont see how things are going to improve in this sector or for GLE inparticular for the foreseeable.

Had a good look at the chart and it still seems their is a very long way to fall on the cards. Be weary folks just be weary

Since the news 2 PE investors were looking to bid for SPI and subsequent gap up the SP has now almost fully retreated from the hype. This screams to me the deal is not going through OR if it does go through it won't be for anything like What people expect. Never ignore the price action folks.

Hi CN, You may be correct but I dont see how you can be 99% sure.

Its clear AFC need more cash before they're anywhere near profitable

Its common sense for them to raise without letting the cash runway fall too far so around 12m before cash runs out is a good ballpark

It would make sense to raise off the back of good news when their is hopefully a higher SP to raise into.

If all goes exactly to plan for AFC then CE mark in August then initial sales in September which is also approx 1yr before cash runs out so for me it makes sense for AFC to raise into that announcement.

If their is any delay to the above though then either John will decide to bite the bullet and raise into a sub optimal share price or he delays the raise until the desired news on sales is released.

Ideally he needs to raise with instituons off the back of a significant contracted order book but that won't be until next year IMO and is far from guaranteed. Delaying the raise until next year runs its own risks. If I were in his position id be taking more cash at first decent spike opportunity and selling it to investors as the last ever discounted placing due to sales pipeline blah blah. Thats what I think will happen and im fine with it. Id actually average down a little more in that and then buy again once MATERIAL and growing sales are evident. If they become evident.

Actuallt shares of a PLC are often suspended, or at minimum, experience a temporary trading halt when a takeover offer is announced. This is done to prevent a "false market," where trading occurs based on incomplete information, which causes massive price volatility and potential losses for investors.

Shares are suspended for a number of reasons. When a takeover bid is revealed, the share price of the target company typically shoots UP to match the offer premium. Regulators halt trading to allow investors to digest the news.

Sudden Announcements: If the news leaks and trading becomes chaotic, the stock exchange will suspend trading until the target company releases a formal announcement verifying the bid (or denying it).

Reverse Takeovers (RTO): If a smaller company buys a much larger one, or if the deal changes the fundamental nature of the company, the shares are often suspended until a new admission document (similar to a prospectus) is published.

The above is freely available information that takes 30s to look up David.

Yes but they have already shared over 4 years worth of data to the public. 6000 is ready. IMV a partner is waiting on FDA validation over and above removing the lifetime limit and/or they are waiting on INITIAL data from 6103 i.e. Just the knowledge the drug is cleaving and patients are tolerating it well. That can't be too far away

President there only days ago shaking hands with Harry, work has started. Lol

I dont think a take over will happen right now but it could. Most likely partnership deal on 6207.

But yes if TO does come then suspension and frozen out anyone on the sidelines. Sucks to be them

Main support i woule say is at 10p which was last fundraise price i expect most of the placees have now sold out though making a nice profit from overexcited retail who buy into hype around demonstration days and linked in posts. As ive said these such things are pops and drops. Trading ops.

The only time this company share price will move sustainable is when material sales are confirmed and that means material to the company valuation at the time. Afc already has a very full valuation.

Smart money sell to dumb money in these pops and drops. Placees will now almost all be out and sat on sidelines waiting to invest again at the next discounted placing which I believe Will come this year. It could well be at 5p if its done before material sales are announced.

CE mark for August and 15units sold from September so hope their is no delay to any of this... otherwise its another bad day for retail

D-German the thesis here is that the critical data release to the market will be known by those under NDA already and that includes people we are in negotiations with. We all agree on that surely.

So once a partner has seen the data they need, the final bit of data, they may well sign on the dotted line and that becomes the first rns we get. The first red dot.

Avacta is pleased to announced x y z deal with Novartis/Merck/Astra which brings in £XXm or more for the company and validates the pre|Cision platform which is targeting a market of £200Bn and applicable to 90% of solid tumours plus certain blood cancers.

The money recieved will be used to pay off the convertible loan and to progress multiple indications of 6k into phase 2 and expand 6103 clinical trial plus IND work for 6207. The worlds first dual warhead peptide drug conjugate.

Blah blah blah.

Price gaps up and is NT to buy in any volume whatsoever.

Avacta later confirm full data release will be available via RNS and investor webinar once fully prepared.

In that scenario which is plausible. People out of the stock will be sick and scrambling to get into a rising shareprice. Its coming. Its really not far away now.

Avacta are targeting 90% of solid tumours AND AML. A platform company with 4 years of data on the verge of having 2 clinical assets, 1 in phase 2. A target market of £XXXBn and have the financial firepower of RH & Zeus behind them.

Hemo have 1 indication and only 3 patients treated, no idea if they're still alive or not. Clinical trial on hold pending tech transfer with no visibility on when it will resume. Company latest prospectus says they need to raise £15m to finish HG-CT-1 trial. Warrants litter the share register like confetti. Hope there product works but they're years behind avacta and orders of magnitude behind them in terms of potential upside.

Chalk and cheese

Https://x.com/i/status/2032155346584711657

Just say you cant do it bro.

Runner runner as these are future events then certain assumptions need to be made such as total share count. Take current shares, add 27m for heights and avacta team options then assume further dilution given a 30m raise and you end up with around 500m shares in issue. Obviously factoring in conservatism.

Enhertu billing projects are freely available on the Internet. £10bn pa expected from 2030 onwards. Also look at how biopharma is valued during acquisitions. Take prometheus as a perfect example and see how that was valued i.e. DCF.

All my assumptions have conservatism in them and are based in real world numbers.

Instead of having a go at me how about providing your own projections ? No, easier to criticise others. Especially when behind a screen.

Your welcome, so with 500m shares in circulation at time of takeover assumed and a valuation of £10bn that would be £20 per share or 30x from here.

Enhertu will be billing over £10Bn within the next few years. Assume 6103 will take those sales given its kinder, more efficacious and even cheaper. Assume Avacta dont have anything else or go after any other indication with 6103 so it's purely bought by DS/AZ as a better replacement for Enhertu.

£10bn in sales, on a conservative 3x sales = £30Bn takeover and a return on investment of 33% for the purchaser.

This would be ridiculously cheap so you see how the numbers really tell the story and start to stack up very quickly. 6103 is going into human within days. Initial data in patient tolerability and whether the leaving group is found in the urine will be known very shortly after initial dosing. If it's seen to be working....

Well then we could in theory go straight to a bid situation for the company and skip the whole licencing deal scenario. Price would gap open at a level currently not even unthinkable. Yet people STILL trying their luck trading for 5%.

Amazing naivity at this stage of the game. Its buy and hold all day long