Member Info for Aldebaran

Why have helikon not closed though? Even when price rose recently to 15.5p they didnt flinch.

Afc have money NOW, yes, but they are nowhere near profitable and will need to raise again this year so as to not run cash down too far. No sign of a significant order book yet, no material sales yet, S&P partner not happy with current cracker design so now needs redevelopment etc..

Afc have quite a full valuation already which is why I think helikon are confident to keep their short open. Probably close it out at the next fundraise though

Suggesting company valuations rather than share prices is more meaningful. How much is Avacta worth now. Assuming that 6K is approved for SGC and nothing else.

You get 250m sales in 2030 and buy those sales for say 5x meaning a 20% return on investment for the purchaser and a 1.25bn valuation for Avacta.

Apply whatever risk discounts you want and deduct back to today. You will get a figure substantially higher than today's market cap.

Then for fun start throwing in peak sales for other indications where doxorubicin is used and see what figures you get.

And if you really want to get excited, do the same exercise but for 6103.

It's telephone numbers and of course that's without 6207 even thought about. The numbers point to a 100x or more potential here. The cold hard numbers point to that. Now up to the science and the management to see how much of that can be delivered.

The premium paid is depending on DCF to future sales and number of parties bidding. Its not based on what AIM sentiment has decided should be the share price on any given day.

Whats interesting here is that this stock has been in a strong downtrend since 2023 falling from 30p to understand 6p in July last year.

Price has rebounded slightly from the low since then....

Sounds like avacta right now with us reaching our low of 27.5p last year after a downtrend.

Then price has gapped open UP 90%

When the deal lands for avacta, I wander how big that gap up will be. Absolutely no indication from the SP at DAWN that a deal was imminent. Same as with POINT and their acquisition.

Take nothing from avacta lacklustre SP right now. Value lies in the data. Its coming and still their are people who see this understand this and choose to trade for a 5% better entry. Risking HUGE upside.

As i was saying the other day. This deal illustrated the point once again. Gotta be in it to win it.

Price dropping off on low volume indicates no buyers present. Why is nobody buying when supposedly this is being sold for 300p + by end March ?

It's not happening, thats why IMO.

Ignore him ffs.

Novartis most likely to be first mover given they have not joined the ADC arms race, they are geographically located a stone throw from avacta head office, Christina used to work for them plus there are multiple other ties with our BOD, there scientist lady who was global leader for drug discovery was confirming on linked in years ago they were watching avacta then we have the recent slide hiccup showing avacta were presenting to Novartis. Novartis love FAP and have and are actively expanding their radiologand therapy.

So if and when Novartis launch a bid, what do AstraZeneca and Daiichi Sankyo do about that? Precision MIGHT be a minimal threat to them in Avactas hands... but in the hands of Novartis it then becomes a MAJOR threat to Enhertu and any other drugs in their pipeline.

Enhertu alone, which uses deruxtecan (the less potent cousin of exetecan) only targets Her2 predominantly used for breast cancer and billed over £3Bn in 2024 (see TD broker note 21st Jan page 5). This is expected to be billing over £10Bn pa by 2030 and thats without expanding to the adjuvant setting. Do DS/AZ just give up on that revenue and let Novartis take it? How much would they pay just to protect those sales?

Then remember FAP is found in 90% of solid tumours, precision isnt limited to sparse antigens targets like Her2 so in reality Avacta technology affects almost the entire oncology market. Especially. ESPECIALLY with dual warhead tech.

Where does Lily and Merck fit in? Precision is a threat to them all and pharma are ruthless when it comes to money.

Anyone that thinks Novartis put in a cheeky bid and take avacta without any competing bids is deluded or deramping. Probably both and are really not worth bothering engaging with. It amazes me people STILL are giving them any interaction. What a waste of time

Its also been long because it was a new drug class when 1st administered. Clinicians and patients had to he won over.

Not to mention that avacta were initially only doing ava6k trials in the UK so expanding to the USA needed subsequent FDA approval and that took time.

Then their was the cardiac event which paused things and that turned out to be unrelated but still cost us time.

Then as no MTD could be found the trial kept extending and of course we then added a 2 weekly cohort and a phase 1b to derisk phase 2.

So the trial has been hugely successful and highly data rich. We are now at the point of reaping the rewards for all the hard work and patients.

Under CC ava6103 really is progressing at breakneck speed. Relationships are already there now with clinicians who are hugely excited about this drug.

Its all systems go now. Backing of Zeus and Richard Hughes. Full therapeutic company now. Platform company. It's an entirely different animal

SNewby the information you want is available in recent broker notes. For example ava6k in Salivary Gland Cancer peak sales in 2030 are 250m

Novartis move 1st IMO

I already said the risk is price slide. It won't slide to far though as plenty of structure underneath here but not being in on the day a deal lands, well... that would be rather costly. Each to their own.

I do think a deal is ready because I think based on company communication. Weve been in talks for a long time. Small deals are easy to do and could have been done a long time ago. We want a big deal and validation which we would only get from a BIG pharma. Thats what CC is holding out for. I felt a deal was coming in December but seems FDA wanted a but more data which I presume big pharma want FDA validation. Were 3 months on from that now. It must be close. Data unlocked fda fast track and fda fast track unlocks big pharma deal on 6k.

Also I think a deal is coming due to the CLN being renegotiated pending BC data. Why would heights do that otherwise and take that risk? Plenty of reasons to expect a deal will be done and if it isnt quite there in time then we have RH & Zeus to fall back on. Doubt retail will get a look in and also doubt we'll be giving an 8% discount this time around.

Modest downside risk to being IN

Major upside can be lost by being OUT

The way I see it. Good look with the way you play it

Why raise now if a commercial deal is ready to go pending final bit of data only?

Why was the CLN payment totally renegotiated pending BC data readouts?

Why didnt the company take the extra money on offer at the last placing at 63p ?

Hi Ceesor, I tend to agree that most news leaks way in advance good or bad especially for companies listed on poorly regulated markets like AIM.

What i would say here though is that Avacta have kept an incredibly tight ship just look back at really good RNS's and the share price action that preceeded them.

Here is a better example, remember when Lily took out POINT? Share price over the prior month fell 50ish percent from memory and had been falling for a long time before that. Red dot landed and stock opened up around 100% UP from prior days closing price.

You can try to get clues from the share price action tbh I generally do that but not here for 2 reasons.

1st being as I already said it is a very tight ship

Wnd being the upside move could and should be dramatic given the absolutely enormous potential of what Avacta have developed.

You run a small risk being in that you buy at a sub optimal price as stock may fall 10% even 20% at worse case as retail get bored but not being in WHEN the deal inevitably lands costs you 100% or more upside on your buy. Thats the way I look at it.

10k going 10x is amazing you make 100k but missing out on that initial 100% move to the upside means your 10k now "only" goes up 5x so you make 50k or in other words, you LOSE 50k of potential profits trying to be smart and getting an entry 5% or so lower than current price. It just isnt worth it in my view.

Each to there own though. But understand this. Avacta is the real deal.

Their won't be any murmuring at all thats the point.

We won't get to see the data then fill our boots at this level waiting for the market to react. It'll all go on behind the scenes and we'll get a RNS saying deal done.

Initial data will come afterwards iMO.

Ceesor there is a 2 week arm and a 3 week arm so getting initial scan data will take weeks. From memory every 2 cycles the patients were scanned who were taking 6000.

What will be known sooner is data from blood tests and biopsies (where patience have consented). Avacta can test all sorts with these tests such as the leaving group to see if cleavage is happening and tumour concentration so they'll know pretty damn quickly if the drug is performing as designed. Then what remains is to see whether there are any side effects caused by leakage out of the TME and of course if the drug is working (note that we already know exectecan works soooooooooo).

This is why im saying Avacta themselves will have a very informed view on if this works or not very quickly. They can then take this data to discuss with potential partners under NDA etc..

We won't find out anything about the data until summer time but it'll all go on behind the scenes

Let's not start yet ANOTHER day and thread consumed by digs at the FUD merchants. Wear better then that. Avacta is better then that. A company making a REAL difference to people's lives. Plenty of share price moving catalysts coming before summer so leave him to it if he doesnt think so. They've already bin spelt out to him which is more then he deserves. I'll be fully invested when that red dot appears, like most here will be. He could well be on the sidelines or only with a partial position because he believes his own FUD. Good. Don't waste anymore time trying to educate or convince him. Just leave him to it. And to deal with the consequences if he misses out on those out the blue SP rallies which WILL come.

6103 Into human any day now and Avacta will know PDQ if it's working as designed. Could see fireworks before the data is released

If there is a bid coming at anything like the numbers being banded about here then the SP wouldn't be wear it is. It just wouldn't. Insiders would be nudge nudge wink wink their friends and family who would do the same to their friends and family and so on. Everyone would be buying because its free money really.

The fact the SP is sinking is telling IMO. No deal and then we can only HOPE 160p is the bottom, could easily sink lower as disappointment, despondency and fatigue really set in amongst investors

The lifetime limit is for faridoxorubicin (AVA6000) so no lifetime limit wherever doxorubicin is used, assuming faridoxorubicin replaces it - which it will.

A much better option for patients whilst we wait for the real game-changers in the pipeline to be trialed and approved

Share price action is absolutely screaming no deal here...

Will find ourselves back at 160 or below soon

She's confident AF.

Avacta are now weeks / arguably days away from getting initial 6103 data. Then what? Does that make a deal on 6207 likely to be made, or a deal on 6000?

We could easily see a deal on one of our many assets long before us plebs get to see ANY 6103 data. I reckon deals have been negotiated in the background and now just pending final bit of data.

I dont see the point of discussing people and arguing etc that is what Facebook is for. This is supposed to be a investor board to talk about avacta. If we use it for what it is designed for these bulletin boreds can be extremely useful sources of information. Or it can be full of garbage and a playground for FUDsters

No repayments are made before shareholders get dividends also is such a powerful exclamation of confidence. Relaxed here. Shares can remain undervalued for sometime and rerates can be rapid and come when least expected. Gold formed a nice based above 500dollars now and can only see this strengthening further from here.

With AISC of $1,400/oz then it really is a no-brainer