Member Info for Adw198

I’ll be guided by the news and SP. If it hits 3p tomorrow I’ll be gone - which I’m sure we all want:)

I’m here to make money Thorn so it definitely matters to me.

@kevinround

That’s a very interesting post. I’m also wondering amount the risk / reward scenarios / likelihood.

The ultras here regard H2 being commercial as a slam dunk. They also nearly all believe it’s coming on stream this year. So it’s hard to know what spike

there might be from confirming this m news - or how the market would react to what I consider the most likely outcome of commercial but not put on stream.

Similar stuff with H1 - the company have guided an initial 300bopd but the recent article that confirmed production quoted 200bopd. So if H1 flow results confirm 200bopd I wonder how the market will react to producing 50% less than forecast. I don’t need to wonder how the ultras will react they’ll hail it as great news. :)

If they confirm 50% more than forecast I’d be delighted and regard it as a massive positive. Because I’m fair and objective.

@research

Still sniping - I’ve had my name referenced several times and let it all slide. If you want to police sniping police it both ways

As for wise after the event…not really I’ve been super clear on my predictions that it’ll be commercial but not put on stream this year. If either bit is wrong I’ll own it. It’s very valid to ask Abzzba why he’s now saying no news is good news, having told us 3 weeks ago to expect news any day. Why would he say that?

That’s all fine Abzzba, you just need to tell us your logic when 3-4 weeks ago you were telling us to expect an RNS any day?

Or was that just b u l l s h I t?

You might want to look up what a hate crime is mate! Especially someone who has repeatedly done a war dance against a particular group.

Funny how triggered you are simply for being called out again though.

A hate crime - another fail there lads! :)

Whereas wishing war on Iran in the hand - that’s getting closer to the charge

“the oil is worthless.

I guess come January and we open H1 choke to extract and additional 100 bbl/d that will be worthless as well,”

Said nobody, ever. Another silly fib by Abzzba

I guess in part it depends how you define winter but wasn’t a serious figure, just hyperbole. But fair enough not worth arguing about.

First things first, let’s get it confirmed it’s commercial - built this year seems unlikely unless they’ve already started but again we’re going to find out next week.

@ Abzzba

“I reckon just over $1,000,000 revenue from H1 alone by year end”

Fair guess. You should have piped up when your mate Tenbag was insisting on £5m - £10m over the winter.

Most unlikely to be a material contribution from H2

Exactly Jimi.

Payment without a contract - hmm!

Producing is great but reference to fundamentals is a stretch given we don’t know what it costs to extract, or the processing, transporting and sales costs.

Plus the small matter of not knowing what volume is coming out. Fundamentals :)

Hmm I’m not one for MM conspiracy theories but that drop at the end did look a bit manufactured. I was offered 2.50 early arvo for my 500k shares, then NT for just £1k worth mid arvo so was expected a big sell and rock down , but from circa 15.45 onwards they were back happy to take the full lot again for 2.50.

Above my pay grade to know what might be going on but as I say that seems weird to then throw a minor sell in for 2.40 at 16.21.

Surprised none of the Ultras don’t have a quiet word with WOS and point out how utterly ridiculous he sounds mentioning a 46% discounted CEO buy as some kind of bullish signal. I’ve counted at least half a dozen references today alone.

If that’s the best we’ve got we’re f o o k e d

Roll on Monday, I suspect next week will bring material news and lots of repositioning about forecasts…

2.506 to sell my lot.

Friday FOMO run to the finish looking on here…

@proquo

Yeah I know - my point was that statement was indicative of it not being close, a view I shared at the time. Subsequent statements haven’t done much to suggest we’re close, especially the last statement saying the terms hadn’t been agreed yet. From which they’ll need drafting, then ratifying by the Mongolians and then signing - the latter of which by itself we were told was a lengthy process. Not a credible account imo - this has been going on for months if not years.

@doc

“Heron 2 has to be a success. And I think it likely will.

I'm hoping for an RNS next week that includes an update on PC... it's unacceptable that still isn't sorted”

Exactly this on both topics.

I just don’t think the lack of deal is down to tardiness given how long it’s been going on and apparently close to be finalised. Something else is at play imo. It’s classic AIM kicking the can down the road wording.

I called out the 09th September RNS did not suggest a deal was close. That view didn’t go down well but here we are 2 months on with no confirmation it’s been agreed, drafted, ratified or signed.

“Negotiations with PetroChina and industry regulator, the Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia (MRPAM), on processing, transport and sales of Block XX production are progressing and Petro Matad has been invited by PetroChina to meet at its Block XIX facilities to review the logistical options”

Yes my understanding is also $1.5m to initially drill and another $2.5m to bring into stream.

If the 2nd drill fails that’s a big blow imo, it will dent confidence / sentiment. Makes deals less likely imo.

If it’s commercial that’s great news. The flip side to me is if it’s not it’s bad news. I call it both ways

@proquo

Yeah fair enough “definitely” is OTT. I do think it would lead to a raise though. You’re right an alternative would be deferred cost drilling but I think DQE would be less likely to do that based on a failed 2nd well. That’s speculative on my behalf though.

Looking perky again! Reassuring on the run up to news

Yes I agree having permits / production confirmed did materially de risk things. For whatever reason the SP hasn’t reacted. Perhaps the market needs confirmation on what (volume of oil) is being produced. Something is going on behind the scenes of that I’m sure.

Also IF H2 isn’t commercial we’ll almost definitely need another raise to fund the next drill, for which confidence would be less. As I keep saying though, the odds are strongly in favour of it being commercial. Same chance of Gobi not being basically.

Not sure what was “personal” mate but let’s keep focussing on the company

@prowuo and thorn

Some very fair points setting out the upside potential. I’d quibble a few minor points like exaggerating H1 as the best flow (it was the 3rd best) but that’s minor - and also the ability to sell given we have NO DEAL to do that just yet as per the RNS.

Long termers who are confident in the investment case can switch off and relax. I’m here not to fall in love with a share but to make money buying and selling. Therefore I’m interesting in the journey not just the (hopeful) destination. Eg everything you’ve written you could have equally argued before the placing, the effect of which was to take many underwater from what I can gather. Hence I’ll

take an active interest in standard corporate costs such as a $2m wage bill, which I think you called tea and biscuit money. You must eat different biscuits to me mate!

Anyway, sensible exchanges so fair enough 👍