Member Info for Adw198

Fair enough - I think I understand the underlying point that the oil is there and will be extracted over time. But I still think you’re massively underestimating the importance of the first few being a commercial success. Let’s hope that good news lands

@thorn

“The next RNS is irrelevant Doc.

What matters is how many wells are are pumping oil, and how much oil, this time next year and the year after”

Surely we can all agree the next RNS is of huge significance. The amount of wells we can get to production next year is massively linked to the performance of the first 2.

To suggest otherwise feels like laying the excuse groundwork for potentially bad results.

I agree investor, but if price action was entirely logical / predictable we’d all be better off.

I don’t have the answer here, but I do observe a general AIM market where the huge spikes are less frequent and less pronounced when they do. I sense too many have had their fingers burnt in the past. As I say, that’s a general observation not directed here.

@investor

I’m interested in the point but would agree you’ve not really answered your own question mate?

Are you saying the SP is down here because of a chart?

My predictions are

1. It flows at commercial rates.

That’s based on the company assigning a high (over 80%) chance of this. Since when we received encouraging initials results, suggesting they’d be higher still.

2. They won’t put it to production before the shut down in the next few weeks.

That’s based on the company themselves flagging it’s going to be close. And they said that (even) when expecting results in October.

I’ve got absolutely no issues if anyone disagrees with either prediction. It would be brilliant if you could likewise offer logic though

Even if you don’t offer logic and just blindly insist something is guaranteed that the company have said isn’t that’s fine too.

Just make sure if what you deemed guaranteed doesn’t happen you acknowledge that and admit it’s a negative against your own expectations.

@investor

I hope you’re right! I sense we’ll snap out of this range one way or another imminently.

I’m not a chartist as I wouldn’t know which interpretation to apply. I do however respect those who seem to be able to make consistently good picks based on charts - that’s Saint guy on twitter )whose bullish prediction on MATD I shared) is very good.

Seems like Abzzba has been exposed again.

Chat rubbish and you’ll get called out. Time and and time again

Hyperbole is one thing, plain false information another.

And when corrected they shoot the messenger.

Anyway who said 1p was equally proven massively wrong. Call them out.

Abzzba says

“H2 in the bag, will be flowing this year, cannot imagine why some would try injecting doubt”.

The company says

“the Company remains focused on getting the testing programme completed expeditiously and, based on the results, will then determine if time and weather will permit getting the well on production before the 2024 winter operational shut down in late November. The well test operations are expected to be completed during the month of October”

It’s now November 06th so whatever the outcome of the results there’s a significant doubt as to whether we’ll be producing.

A massive downside risk is IF H2 doesn’t flow well / commercially.

Odds in our favour though

Hopefully we’re ramping up Heron 1 and 2 production to keep up with the ramping here, albeit mainly from the same group of discredited hyperbole merchants. :)

Surprised there’s no RNS. Everyday we go without the chances of H2 producing this month dwindle. I’ve been clear and honest I don’t think they’ll

get it up this month anyway, but some of those insistent it would be producing this week should perhaps reflect on and readjust their own expectations.

I reckon some pre RNS consolidation today ahead of the big news

It’s definitely holding us back and to some extent you can understand why.

But imagine if it was resolved either in our favour or with a small (eg few $million) adjustment. We’re basically another few months on, producing gold at huge margins, paying off the last of the debt with plenty of gold still in reserve and an entire new project to go at. The proposition becomes better and better each passing month of production and if it does clear any time around us releasing financials, LOM extensions and / or Douta PFS then this could / should absolutely sling shot up to fair value.

I’d be really keen some kind of finality to the matter too, so we can mitigate any ongoing concerns

Couldnt agree more Thorn - much better to focus on the company not the individual posters.

The (realistic) dream RNS would confirm

1. Decent H1 initial production

2. Confirmation H2 commercial and initial test results

3. Confirmation it’s being brought on this month

4. Actual deal with PC

Id settle for the first 2 this week. I don’t think 3 will happen as the timeframe seems against us. It was apparently touch and go when they expected results in October, hence thinking we may have missed the boat.

4 I think is linked to the others and something more significant is at play.

The minimal staff expense last year was over $2m if I’ve read it right.

I’ll factor that in to profit projections, others are entitled to ignore it.

@stas Yeah fully agree - I’ve always said DQE deferring costs would be a great result. I just have some caution about if / when that will happen, noting that’s not the agreement for H1 and 2. I reckon they perhaps want to see the results themselves first too.

I also agree about people’s projections being a bit toppy. Eg pro quo quoting 821bopd as a first flow. To my understanding that was the MAXIMUM. It averaged 200bopd. I appreciate that was for a test but my understanding is the company are guiding 300bopd initially for H1.

H2…well the initial results seemed slightly less promising as it didn’t flow naturally, so perhaps a bit less. I just want it to be announced as commercial! I do expect it to be producing this year but will be delighted if it is.

Yeah office, salaries, general corporate overheads and of course OPEX for a producing well in Mongolia.

@thorn Yes lots of corporate costs - but I was reminding some of the more giddy posters that revenue is NOT the same as profit. Especially when as you say we’re (hopefully!) paying PC to process, transport, export and sell. Unless I’ve missed it we don’t know our break even costs do we.

But looking great here today / this week with news obviously pending. My exit price is getting close but ultimately unless we go above 2.75 I’ll be waiting for the RISK / REWARD RNS.

Don’t forget the COSTS lads :)

Fwiw I agree with Doc that large round number block selling is less likely to be standard Retail selling.

Doesn’t matter that much - if we’re moving like this with a big seller still there then we’ve still got a positive of them stopping to look forward to haven’t we!

I think an RNS tomorrow (or even before) looks nailed on. Are those positive catalysts of mine about to land?!

I’ve never had a view on Miton but even if it wasn’t them, it appears to have improved sentiment.