Member Info for adoubleuk

Whatever the SP tomorrow, I reckon The Stag at Lower Easham is going to do good business.

Genghis,

"Someone in his position should know better."

I agree in some ways, but if people are not instructed explicitly not to make posts of that sort (was he?) maybe they don't 'know better'!

Same happened to me a few years ago, in regard to an oil company (no names, no packdrill) I was working for. We started testing, and there was a flare. Some how a picture of it got posted on Facebook, and there was some debate here on the relevent LSE BB as to whether it was genuine. To which I replied (from the wellsite) that indeed it was, because it was I who'd taken the picture and could see the flare through my office window!

And in very short order I receive a phone call from the Ops Manager in London (the well was in a distant foreign country) and he wasn't pleased at all! I was lucky to have kept my job, even though I wasn't responsible for the 'leak', having simply sent the photo to head office and nowhere else.

That's how I personally learned that lesson.

But anyway here, that only applies to the picture taken on the AM and the accompanying post, which is incorrect referring to 'first oil', or at least by Hurricane's rather special definition. Because as we know, the flame is visible for miles around. Couldn't be kept secret.

HURRY,

"Foil after 72 hours of constant flow so hopefully en rns on wednesday."

Incorrect, I'm afraid. DYR. FoiL is on stabilised flow from both wells. Maybe (optimistically) three weeks from now.

"... I'm not at liberty to link to the second."

But it might be on Facebook as well! I don't know.

Albi1,

"The images you have seen - is it possible to post a link here?"

The first one is on Facebook, seemingly, and also posted over on ADVFN. Sorry, but I'm not at liberty to link to the second.

BlooBird,

"In your experience, how long do they normally run an initial oil flow test on a drilling rig ?"

A few days. But the oil isn't stored, it's burned off (except for a few gallons taken as a 'sample' for lab analysis). That's why when they do the Warwick DST with the TO Leader we'll see a BIG flare (hopefully).

...For you 'social media' users, how many are already out there?

By the way, I don't have a facebook account, nor instagram. But have now seen two photos of the flare on the AM, taken from different places.

For you 'social media' users, how many are alre

Wellwell at 21:43 this evening:

"AK I can only assume you’ve taken leave of your senses."

Wellwell at 12:46 yesterday:

"HUR doesn’t do ops during the week."

Say no more.

Wellwell,

"AK how on earth can you utterly disagree when it’s patently obvious this pivots on the success or failure of the EPS? DrT himself has said so."

Maybe Dr T is holding a Royal Flush...

Thanks to Diego, and also the poster here who phoned me with the same news, even if it disturbed my online poker game which is why I had the phone turned off so just saw the message light afterwards!

Wellwell: "I’m frankly gobsmacked if someone posted this as fact without either obtaining approval first, or being completely ignorant to the potential ramifications in doing so."

Wasn't it yesterday or the day before that you posted that Hurricane don't do significant ops during weeksdays (ie while the market is open)?

Shipwatchers (flarewatchers) rule! Did SIPP have to ask permission to take a picture of a seagull?

"If they find oil in the basement of their existing licence areas why would they need to pay for HURs?" (quoth Wellwell)

"Wellwell they already know they have oil in the basement below Clair! " (replies Foresight22)

Both of which are valid points, but slightly forgetting something. Clair is predominantly a 'conventional' play (sorry, established field), but yes, containing producable 'basement' as well. Which BP have already taken a poke at and tested at 2000+ bbl / day BUT AFTER STIMULATION (ie acidizing). The fracture system underlying Clair isn't nearly so 'open' as that on GLA, and all sorts of sedimentary crud has got into the matrix, otherwise they wouldn't have needed to acidize.

Compare and contrast with Lanc 7 DST at 15,000 bbl / day WITH NO STIMULATION (admittedly using ESP artificial lift) at minimal drawdown, and reckoned easily capable of 20,000. It's an order of magnitude greater. Like comparing domestic cats with lions.

The bottom line remains that Dr T didn't just choose Rona Ridge as though he was pinning a tail on a donkey blindfolded. It's the Fractured Basement 'elephant'. The prime FB acreage. Why do you think OGA awarded Hurricane all the rest up to Halifax out-of round to Hurricane instead of offering it in-round to allcomers? I'll tell you why. Because OGA knows that Hurricane will directly or with partners develop it, for the good of the UK's oil 'sustainability'. Whereas if that acreage had been bought by BP (or Shell, or others), thay'd have done what Hoover wanted to do with Dyson's invention. Shove it on a shelf, not let the public know about it, and hope that everyone would forget it.

Why do you think BP and Shell have 'corralled off' GWA / GLA by buying up the surrounding leases in the subsequent 'open round'?

Back to Wellwell:

"I’m more inclined to say they may be involved but as part of a larger consortium of 3-6 players given the potential size."

Quite agree. It's the only way to finance something that size.

" But that is still dependent on EPS results."

Utterly disagree. But a nice way to keep the SP depressed, because like that any buy-in (I don't believe the TO theories) will be cheaper for them. Nothing like spreading doubt to keep other potential suitors away. But that didn't stop the 'Spirit deal'. And the BP's of this world will have to pick their skirts up if they don't want a repeat of that.

Oh yeah, as an addition before I go to bed (guess where I was last night?), I'm surprised that there's been so little comment here about the 'new' company staffing levels, because they almost tripled during the last financial year. And that is not insignificant.

Rangers,

" Any thoughts on extract 1 and as to why the numbers seem to fall in line very neatly? "

Firstly, let me say I liked your comment about 'fascination with numbers and patterns', especially the 'patterns' bit. Because as you yourself well know, thats the way to spot a driller who knows his stuff! Someone who looks at numbers not in the instant, but more to find if they correspond to some sort of 'trend', and equally looks for 'patterns'. And we're not talking Laura Ashley, here.

I personally don't think that it's pure chance or 'coincidence' that the figures correspond so closely.

The guaranteed 'offtake' from the EPS by BP fits the bill, and the EPS fits that guaranteed offtake. And we don't know exactly how much Hurricane talks to BP, but I suspect it's quite a lot. OK, with the 'Spirit deal', 'debottlenecking', and increased output, maybe the initial offtake target will be reached earlier, but assuming all goes well, and BP is 'offtaking' OK, there will surely be time for that initial contract to be extended?

I sometimes feel some people forget these kind of details. Bob Dudley and BP's head office have said they'll 'wait and see'. But for what, exactly? Is it (as various scaremongers like to endlessly repeat) to see if the EPS 'works'? Or might it not otherwise be that they'll wait before maybe making some sort of approach?

GLA FFD FID is still two years away, according to the latest CP. And by then, Hurricane will need a really significant partner., because a couple of hundred million a year won't meet the nut, even as a down-payment. GLA FFD will be mega-bucks, not just half a billion for a 'small' FPSO, raised on AIM.

Plus even to reach an FID, a technical plan will have had to have been drawn up to support such an investment by whoever.

It's all stuff going on in the background, probably right now, maybe started a while ago, and about which we know jack.

All those extra staff added to the payroll aren't just sitting behind desks to ensure a couple of extra supply-boats are running OK or that the crew on the FPSO are wearing the correct PPE. There's more to this company than that sort of thing these days, and anyway such 'nuts and bolts' stuff can be done by a handful of people. As it has been, up to quite recently...

FS22,

"I guess next week WD will be in the pay zone, any news about the ‘buoys in blue’ getting on to the helipad?"

They'll already be out there for LWD & DD. Plus maybe a couple of DST guys doing advance work even if the kit hasn't arrived yet.

Rangers,

''Jesus why does my inquisitive mind take me here!'

Why not? Nothing wrong with pondering the 'small print' once in a while.

If nothing else, you've reminded us that BP does actually have some active input in approvals relating to the EPS. And as such (although I agree with dspp's reference to conspiracy theorising), BP could possibly be in a position to delay things if they felt so inclined.

MCB55,

" So if no one swoops and buys out/into HUR by then, then HUR will have to go it alone, which is sub optimal as they just don't have the money for FFD. They would have to go progressively with multiple FPSO's / piecemeal approach on multiple part field developments, rather than a big bang FFD! "

I agree entirely. You're (relatively) new here, but that's an argument I brought up countless times a few years back, even before HUR acquired all the Rona Ridge acreage up to Halifax.

Now some people here will instantly say "what about the proposed FFD for GWA, using another FPSO"? But my answer to that is just 'look at the map'. Lincoln-Warwick is relatively 'compact' in comparison with GLA, which extends over more than a 35 km distance.

I still imagine a series of fixed-jacket platforms looking similar to Clair Ridge marching over the horizon...

And as you say, that will be mega-investment, involving the participation of a super-major. And 'major' involvement is what Doctor T has been talking about all the way down the line.

Biffa,,

"Kerogen are not above reproach. It's just so far they have done nothing wrong."

That sounds like a contradiction in terms to me.

Some interesting posts here since the RNS's.

IJWT mentioned trojan horses, which got me thinking. Because there may be a grain of truth in it as a simile, it's inappropriate (to my mind), because subsequent to gaining entrance by subterfuge, the Aecheans laid waste to the city, which ceased to be a place of power, and finally fell into ruin.

Now there a few things about Kerogen which nobody seems to have mentioned today. One, they're essentially Chinese. Two, they are heavily invested in other ventures, not simply Hurricane. And third, their stated purpose (from way back when) is to invest in, and thus materially support, the UK oilfield. Of which they (and whowever backs Kerogen) then own a slice of.

So not quite a trojan horse, but maybe more line the encyclopedia salesman who's got to your sitting room and managed to sell volume one. And sure, that implies you'll have to buy the other volumes later, but it's a sort of win-win, nevertheless. Because although Britannica makes money, you also improve your knowledge through reading, unless the books are just used for decorative purposes to impress the neighbours.

I'm more interested in now seeing what CA does. They now have a wodge more shares to trade, which they'll no doubt trade as usual. But it's not a huge percentage of total shares in issue, and maybe the people buying might not simply be buying for immediate trading purposes, but will hang on to them for a while...

One way or another, that's the 'warrents issue' story done with. All it represents now is a slight (very slight) dilution, and the shares the warrent represented are 'visible' on the market.

IMHO.

I can be something of a numbnuts regarding the financial / stockmarket machinations side of things to tend not to comment about it too much here. But what I find heartening about today's deals is not so much the fact that Kerogen immediately unloaded their slice (for whatever reason) but that the shares were immediately snapped up. Sure, consensus on here seems to be that the current trading range is somewhat 'bargain basement price', but it shows there are buyers out there.

Of course we await to find out what CA will do with their share, but whatever it may be, it's good to that one way or another, that's the 'warrents issue' issue put to bed, done and dusted, and becomes firmly past tense stuff.

Jiffy,

"Hope your friend pulls through OK."

Thank you.

All OK.