RE: Help17 May 2019 02:27
Nathan,
I agree with a lot of the comments so far, but really like the latest from 'petethestreet'. In general terms, but not singling out HUR. Because he mentions 'luck'.
You've had the good luck to have bought into this share, which is right now performing OK, and is likely to continue doing so, though not necessarily in the same way as over the past few days. The company doesn't pay a dividend, so the only way to make any cash profit is through selling some or all of your shares, so timing is everything. And although I very very rarely make SP predictions, my own feeling is that the SP will further improve until about mid-June, or whenever the Capital Markets Day is held, but then will plateau or even slump a bit until towards the end of the year.
But that's just my own opinion, to be taken with as much salt as you or others may wish to apply!
Some people call AIM a casino, and in some ways they're right. But when you enter a casino, you have a choice of games to play, most of which are pure luck, or where the odds are in favour of the house. There's only one game where you can be confident of winning, and that's my own game, poker. For the simple reason your not playing against the house, but other people, so skill comes to the fore. The better players will win the poor players' money every time. The casino just provides the setting, the croupiers, and so on, and takes a fixed percentage from each pot. Of course there's an element of 'luck' in the game, being the draw of the cards, but that applies whether one plays in a casino or across a kitchen table, but one has to learn to be philosophical about losing sometimes to some really improbable run of cards, even to the poorest of players.
But there the analogy really ends. Likening AIM to a casino is rather as though it were pure luck: a casino filled with nothing but fruit machines and roulette tables The odd thing is, such casinos exist, but still nevertheless don't lack clients!
Back to my own favorite game, because nevertheless further parallels exist. One has to be clear-headed and unemotional, set oneself goals, try to avoid greed, but even more particularly, fear. Both difficult emotions to control. And this is where it applies to your particular case. Are you happy with your 'win' right now? Maybe worried that it may decrease (fear) or hoping that it may increase (greed)? Only you can make the decision whether to pick up your chips and leave the table (sell your shares) or stay. But then, don't blame anyone else if the SP increases later, though you can congratulate yourself for your timing if it falls.
If you've done some research, you'll know that this, share has had some strange ups and downs. Here we are just a couple of weeks from first oil, and the company earning revenue for the first time in its existance. But the SP has yet to reach its previous all-time high. So despite me outlining what I think it'll do near-term, please don't consider it 'advice'.
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