Member Info for adoubleuk

SotB,

"ADUK::Way off as usual..."

Oh yeah? By what percentage? Remember my numbers were 'ballpark', which means plus or minus 15% in my book.

Please provide alternatives if you have them.

Biffa,

"HUR have stated that both Lincoln and Warwick Deep are options for the tie back to the Lancaster EPS."

Really? If so, it's escaped my notice. Also if so, I'm quite happy to eat humble pieon the matter.

Please provide a reference, though, to substantiate your statement.

Genghis,

"If you can't tell Mars from Jupiter or Venus, I should give up looking out of windows after dark. One is red, the others are not...….."

It's a different hour, the alignment is thus a bit different (due to the Moon's position), and I have to lean out of the window because the establishment I'm in won't allow 'smoking in the appartment'. But being a nicotine-addict, I circumvent that by being 'outside' (using my toothbrush-glass half filled with water) as an 'ashtray', and admiring the night sky.

Definitely Mars to the right of the Moon again, but there are two other planets to the LH as well. Hence my confusion yesterday.

Like the SP, it's all relative.

"Re. my previous post and before you say it Aduk, OK, not 'everyone' has been hopping over to the ii board."

Dammit, Albi (pls pardon my Greek), you read my mind!

Anyway, it's been ages since I've looked at ii. Before they changed format, befor Ricfle got in there, before anything like that.

Because a couple of years ago I determined that the II BB was populated by morons, because during the drilling campaign the thread - headers were mainly 'Smoke on the Water' and other Deep Purple references. Whereas my favorite track by that band has always been 'Lazy', mainly featuring the classically-trained keyboard impressario, the great John Lord. Whose style (both musically and personally) I admired.

JiffyBag,

"What I am trying to get my head around I suppose is, when / how long the GWA drill will take? given the depth...Looking at the RNS's re Lancaster ,it was about 5 weeks or thereabouts, is the GWA similar?...Therefore re the GWA , we may be looking at some news next week?"

Referencing JayKay's admonishment of my writing being prolix and longwinded, causing him to reach for his reading-glasses, I'll answer the question in your last phrase first.

No, I do not, personally, IMHO, expect news of Warwick Deep next week. Indeed, GWA and GLA are similar. But I don't expect 'news' (ie RNS-able) until at least athe week after next.

All of which coincides nicely with the AGM, when all the cards will have to be laid on the table, anyway.

Also, (and this MUST be underlined once again, yet again, etc., etc.,), while drilling and associated operations are ongoing, asking 'how long?' is a frustrating sort of question which causes people in the field to have murderous thoughts. Sure, there are anticipations, 'lookaheads' drawn up, risk-assessments made, past perfomances evaluated, etcetera, etcetera. But the 'drilling phase' is when you're dealing with Mother Nature, and hoping she'll be nice to you. But sometimes she just ain't. Not talking geology here, simply that the topdrive motor might burn out, someone might fall overboard, there may be a dockers' strike, whatever.

Update at AGM, maybe a 'shipwatcher's sight' of a flare beforehand. Which is as good as an RNS.

(PS to JayKay) I advise putting on your reading-glasses before perusing anything I write! It's pouring a beer to pass the time struggling through my sometimes lengthy scribblings which is optional...

So Ricfle's nailed his plaque in II's door, has it? There's another good reason (the first being its new format) for me to no longer look at that BB!

And he's telling people what might and what might not be important for the SP by merely repeating stuff the company has told us already?

I'm not making any predictions, though came close to doing that here the other day. However what I do bear in mind a chart and accompanying article which I think it was Wellwell (or maybe Casapinos) brought to out attention years ago. Here's the link

https://www.geologyforinvestors.com/life-cycle-of-a-mineral-deposit-stock-price-implications/

Sure, it's referring more specifically to mining, but oil exploration and production is 'minerals extraction' as well, in its own way: it's just that the timescales tend to be different.

That chart-curve looks familiar, doesn't it? Especially if one 'smoothes down' the 2017 Hurricane SP high, which was a white elephant (black swan, if you like) which had nothing to do with real things happening. (Unless you traded on it, at which point it became very real indeed!)

The article also contains a fabulous photo of an opencast copper mine in Utah, USA, if you like that kind of thing. It must be borne in mind that a hole in the ground like that was dug by diesel-driven machines. And that copper is a primary material for making............... electric wires, cables, transformers, and the like.

I find Carloil's list of questions wishy-washy, to say the least. And anyone asking when Warwick Deep will be tied into the FPSO would bring the house down in laughter. For the simple reason that that isn't going to happen. The well in the current campaign that's intended to be tied-in is on Lincoln.

Addendum or Erratum, don't know which, having looked out the window again:

"PS This is written after just looking out of a hotel window on the Mediterranian coast, noticing it's a full moon, and with the red planet clearly visible as well"

Maybe it's not Mars. Possibly Jupiter or Venus. Either way it looks good!

Hecate,

Something for you and your sisters to ponder over. An excerpt from wrongopedia.

"The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.

Unlike the earlier and broader "black swan problem" in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences"

This is the way I've thought about Hurricane Energy and Dr Trice's adventures into Fractured Basement plays West of Shetland ever since I heard about them.

'Black Swan Events' are not necessarily BAD.

Some people consider black cats to be bad, but personally I like them, and will always give one a stroke under the chin if I encounter one, (and assuming it's amenable and welcoming of such fuss).

It's all a matter of superstition, and remember, "It's bad luck to be superstitious" (quote Andrew Mathis)

PS This is written after just looking out of a hotel window on the Mediterranian coast, noticing it's a full moon, and with the red planet clearly visible as well.

The black swan's song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0h5E0pxLBw

Jiffy,

Think of all GWA / GLA wells of being in the 'ballpark' of 10-11,000 ft, including the horizontal section, 'measured along wellbore' (a Shell phrase). Total vertical depthe is around 6000 ft.

Partly in reply to my own comments here (which I copied over to the other BB), Steve73 has posted again at some length on ADVFN.

Highly recommended reading.

wellwell,

"This is either blatant lies or inside information."

Or just 'good journalism'.

In some repects, to the shareholders, a company CEO is rather like a 'public figure'. Or a 'celebrity', if you like. If Dr T was spotted at the heliport and someone remarks on it, what skin is it off your nose, anyway?

Furthermore, it's quite reasonable information. Good to know Dr T is keeping close to operations, as usual.

I'd personally might ha²ve become upset had I heard learn that during 'introduction of hyrocarbons' to 'our' FPSO, the CEO had been seen at Wentworth golf course and then in the evening at Stringfellows...

bucklerfern,

"Crystal Amber backing two companies chaired by Stephen McTiernan (HUR, KMR)."

And?

(It would be impolite of me to write 'so what'?)

I received an email from LSE inviting me to click a link to try the new version. I don't now remember all the changes, but having tried it, I wasn't impressed, so haven't changed anything when logging in and remain with the old format.

I feel that LSE would be spending their money better by ensuring the hardware didn't go offline so often, instead of adding bells and whistles to the software.

Rangers, I don't try to keep track of Dr T's movements, though I suspect his presence at the heliport doesn't go unnoticed! But if your info is correct, it makes lots of sense. RT seems to be a very 'hands on' CEO. And that he was out on the FPSO for 'introduction of hydrocarbons' is thus no surprise. But for the follow-up, no. There are no rocks involved, he's not a 'production hand', and he's got an AGM to prepare, anyway!

Returning to my computer, because there's a bit in Steve's post I don't quite agree with. (I'll copy this over on ADVFN after I've finished here, so Steve can see it there.)

"So if it were me, I would plan to commence the "test run" (although with production already having been underway for a day or 2) on the Wed (29th), with a scheduled finish 72 hours later on Sat."

Personally, I don't see the 72 hours as some sort of 'test run' with a 'finish'. The company has said announcement of FoiL after 72 hours' stabilised flow with both wells online. In other words, 72 hours at a stable production rate. But that means we're 'in business'. We're now producing and making money properly. So why stop? Sure, the company has advised that downtime is likely to be greater during the initial periods, and that's to be expected as the equipment is properly bedded-in for the longterm, pigging intervals are decided, and more data-gathering is in progress.

But other than that, they aren't going to be playing 'start-stop' for months to come.

Yes, Steve's post on ADVFN is interesting and worth a read.

I think the point underlying it is that regarding timings. The idea about 'testing' during this start-up period being that it can be very much planned ahead: 'choreographed', in a way. There's a huge difference between what's happening now on the AM and a DST on a rig, where the rig is costing dayrate, likewise the test spread and personnel, and where there may be weather issues to take into consideration. Here, the FPSO's not going anywhere else. So First Oil (and the RNS) can possibly be timed (including contingency to allow for any hiccups) quite closely, and maybe for some 'dramatic effect'.

Once First Oil has been announced, the reservoir engineers can go back to 'playing around with' the wells to their hearts' content, because nobody will be noticing!

I now wouldn't be at all surprised to see the FoiL RNS on Monday 3rd, two days before the AGM.

yuyus,

" not at Production tubing but upstream side"

I absolutely must correct you here, but I know you'll forgive me for it. However it's a technical point about which a lot of people get it wrong.

(Dons mortar-board, picks up chalk, turns to blackboard, etc.).

Production tubing is UPSTREAM of the wellhead. Flowlines are UPSTREAM of the FPSO. The FPSO is UPSTREAM of the shuttle-tankers. The shuttle tankers are UPSTREAM of the refinery, and subsequent delivery of the oil to be delivered at petrol stations, turned into shopping-bags, beauty products, or whatever.

Just like a river, oil flows from its source, which is thousands of feet underground. But unlike a river, it defies gravity and flows uphill. This is why Drillers traditionally 'look down' on Production hands. Because everything beyond the wellhead (in terms of flow) is DOWNSTREAM.

(And who knows what hairy-chested beasts might have been p***ing in the headwaters!)

JayKay1,

Yup.