RE: rapid test kit market by 2027 - $3.9B9 May 2020 22:15
I think that's low. Let's suggest we are talking about 3bn people of interest, the remainder being in sparsely populated lower density areas. At $1.3 revenue per test that equates to 1 test per person per year. The cost of the test is very low for a yearly test, more in line with a target price of a daily test. So it's either 350x more than that, or you consider a $10 test that you do multiple times a year, when traveling etc. So let's average that out at 12 times a year, which is $120 per person per year which is 90ish times the 3.9bn value. I can't see how it can only be $3.9bn in the short term unless immunity is expected to be a big player, but if immunity is a big part of the valuation equation then come 2027 it'll be very low as everyone will be immune or dead.