Member Info for 13thmonkey

We can't stay locked forever, people will stop adhering or it'll be too expensive, and when we do there will be a second peak.

It's turdvart going off on one again, new week new opinion I suppose

Jaspy, this might apply, in my opinion, better to steady state companies where each piece of news has little impact to the overall value, in this way the fluctuations are driven by sentiment with no large steps as a result of significant news. With something like this the next piece of news could make a significant difference to the value of the company and charts can't predict that kind of external influences. Like I said my opinion.

Sirjd, care to share? Obviously I won't treat it as a recommendation.

Solid state batteries yes, but for reflow batteries to store more you use a bigger tank. More power equals more equipment to process the liquid.
I see them as being complementary to ITM, storing power in more static settings, whereas ITM can store where power needs to be more mobile.

Kingkitega not just very well, but even at 6x dosage there is less toxicity outside the tumour than with a normal sized dose and the tumour had 18x the concentration (from memory)

Toneman, have you considered zinc8, liquid battery similar to vandium reflow, but with zinc as the operating chemistry. Identical chemistry from cycle to cycle so should have a very very long life, and scales well with storage essentially in tanks.

Abraham, yes I agree that we have no evidence of an test that works just that the chemistry and biology behind it works. The only point to a valuation is if you some we can get past that point. My interpretation is that this is almost mechanics now, the Lateral flow devices are not new, they are a proven tech, so the question is does this test perform differently in glass to in LFD than any other test. I think that risk is low. But still any valuation needs to be on the basis that it works.

Abraham it goes without saying that we need an accurate test, the question is if we have an accurate test (which is what we're being told) then what's the possibility? If we weren't being told it worked we wouldn't be here.

Super drug have sold out of tests at 69 quid.

I see most going to businesses, wanting to screen staff at the door.

Let's examine why the retail sector want to test, it's not so they can be nice to their employees, it's because they want to operate, even in warehouses they need staff, if someone is carrying it into the building they could have a substantial part of the shift off in a week, there will be a point that the cost of lost sales or goodwill outweighs the cost of the tests, and they'll try and stay on that side of the line. If it costs £1000 a week to test a shift and the cost of managing the losses in a shift is £10000 they'll be happy.

Abraham, tell us what you think likely sales volumes will be with your reasoning, it may provide some counter to some projections. I think 15bn is high, but we do have that odd product that is high volume & high margin, just potentially of course. I'm not getting that high, but certainly high enough to generate enough cash to fund the company until the other products hit market as technically they appear to work so the biggest problems are out of the way.

Tesla says the same, possibly in cars next year, better resistance to higher charging rates.

What kind of revenue and profit do you think they can generate given the likely need for their covid product, how much need is there for their other product lines. That'll give you some idea of yearly profit. Indications are they don't need to raise cash, then do the sums to reach a share price for that level of profit.

Rorkes, the figures we've been given have been cost 2-3 sale price 20-30, so if its not included there's room for the running and R&D costs, which will shrink per unit as they are fixed costs vs materials ages other variables. I've tried to be conservative in estimations.

Yes shares x share price equals mcap. Mcap over profit gives pe, which gives an idea of over or under valuation compared to peers or other companies in one aspect. So if profit and mcap give a pe of 5 you'd expect that the sp is low, well it's one interpretation anyway.

Rk, I believe that typically profit x pe ratio = mcap(when you rearrange the equation) ? And a not abnormal pe could easily be 15. Given any level of sales at something approaching or exceeding £10 profit to hit 200m profit would only take 20m unit of sales. That alone gives 3bn mcap. Or are my calculations wrong. Maybe pe would be more like 10 if it is not thought that the sales can carry on, but still that's 2bn on very low sales.
Normally high volume equals low margins (except apple?) so that's why it's scaling in an unexpectedly steep manner.
With realistic sales figures the silly mcaps and share prices drop out, which are big enough to be worrying in an odd way.

Tim, some shares will have been chosen because of what they do now and what they generate now, some because of what they could do. This is in the latter category, is there news coming, no idea, frankly a lot of people have been here for a long time and some are dispondent, some are hopeful, some are in profit, some aren't. You'll need to nashe your call as to whether to stay or go. If this comes off it could be great, if it doesn't it'll be nothing, there's been a lot of false hope along the way. I'm in the could be great camp.
Look at bt for an example of brought because of what they did, but look at the performance, it's gone pair shaped, you need to remake decisions on a regular basis, not so easy when you inherit the portfolio.

I'm not sure about boohoo being the primary name mentioned. It's like dyson and electric cars, only worse, at least he's used to batteries and motors. Imagine Greggs producing a test, how much credence would you give it, more likely to have people skipping over the article as a desperate move but boohoo for attention.