TRG.L Share Price (TRG)

Its ok, found the RNS on 29/11.

What happened here?

sorry lol

Sorry wrong board

There has been a lot of chat on this BB on the intrinsic value of DT and the target price assigned by the three brokers. These brokers will use Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF) and the outcome will depend mainly upon the Discount Rate (DR) used, the time frame (years of analysis), Revenue and costs per year, tax rate and the terminal value (assumed value of DT in the last year of the analysis).

I have updated my simple DCF model (that excludes CAPEX as this is not a major factor) based upon my latest thoughts on what is possible and to demonstrate the sensitivity to the assumptions made on the valuation – a accurate forecast is of course impossible given the many unknowns. The base case assumptions:
Analysis time: 10yrs
Discount Rate : 10%
Revenue GR: 50% for first 3 yrs then decreasing linearly to 15% in Y 10
Margin: -5% Y1; 0% Y2, 7.5% Y3 the linearly increasing to 25% in Y10
Tax rate: 20% flat
Terminal value: 15 x net earnings in Y10

This gives a Present Value (PV) per share of 883p. So a SP of 883p would give a 10% annual return.

Some sensitivities on the PV: DR 15% = 578p: 20% increase in RGR each year = 1440p, 20% decrease in RGR = 528p: 20% increase in margin = 1061p: 20% decrease in margin = 706p

I remain comfortable that at least something like my base case assumptions can be achieved so I remain a long term holder. in his speculative share. There is further huge potential for their technology IMHO.