Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Price (GKP)

Here's my back-of-the-envelope numbers on GKP: https://i.imgur.com/IMf1kt5.png

Numbers are based on:

- ITP closed the entire 2024, and exports open in 2025.

- Not reaching the level of production in 2024 nor 2025 that GKP indeed reached in March 2023 (+55k bop/d)

- Brent at $80 (almost $90 now)

- Receivables not repaid (amounts to 70% of entire enterprise value of repaid)

Probably looking at 50-70% dividend yield on current share price in a reopening scenario, mirroring historical payouts.

Front-running Putup and Broad: my numbers are _below_ analyst consensus i.e. I've used an additional margin of safety. I've talked to two analysts and no one have it below $200m net profit if exports are open i.e. +60% of market cap.

(Yes, I know cost pool is coming down - but it's still hard to envision anything substantially below the aforementioned numbers the coming years).

Both of you are obviously knowledgeable, but you're also very reluctant to state what you actually forecast yourselves.

I'd say the board would be very humble to learn your numbers in a reopening scenario, and I hope you guys go out of your comfort-zone on this topic. Cheers.

Do our American brethren know of some news?

Creeping up again, 120????, anytime soon, imo

Does seem like Iraq is moving much more towards fundamentalism, with new laws proclaimed which would by western standards seem an outrage and would cause uproar if introduced here.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iraq-criminalises-same-sex-relationships-with-maximum-15-years-prison-2024-04-27/

Bit of a shame as it makes it harder to do business with them. Its been frowned on in many Arab countries for years but fallen short of imprisonment.

Or simply look at the company’s own disclosure, published on its website, included in the 2016 prospectus, specifically under section 13.2 on pg 175. People here would do well to read also the paragraphs that follow relating to FDP, work approvals and budget submissions that the contractor is obliged to do.