Member Info for alexeliasson

Gold hit $5,300 today. Excellent for CAPD's core operations and for its listed investments.

On that topic, I added Cora and Desert as I didn't know about them earlier. Thanks Rivaldo!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRONMrnaJW_Duv4WJZYs9GFfXUso-1K0lJhqMZRTejI1cDauIzWy9TWMcZ8WBjCyIBrncIEAHZDJQiI/pubhtml

If you would be able to correct me on the number of shares owned (for those two companies), that would be great as well. I don't want to trust the LLM's without a source. The other holdings I've confirmed with the filings.

Have a great weekend everyone,

Gold is continuing to climb, currently up by $5,130, which is somewhat noteworthy given that the U.S. dollar has also been strengthening during the same period.

I hope everyone understands the significant market tailwinds that Capital Ltd. benefits from at these price levels, and that this is just beginning to show through in the numbers.

I was a bit worried today that the share price would take a small hit. First, they are entering 2026 with an all-time-high Drilling Backlog and - with current metal prices - drilling will be monumental going forward, for years. Secondly, it was a monster-beat by MSALABS and why that is interesting is because those listed peers command a far, far higher multipel than Mining and Drilling companies. So, if when/if the market starts to understand the asset-light and sticky revenue of MSALABS - I think the share price will take a nice jump upwards. The mines are contracting MSALABS services for years - they need it to run a efficient ROM.

CAPD's listed equity portfolio reached $101m today for the first time - which equals 29,1% of total market cap.

Made a sheet to track the Public Positions of CAPD: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRONMrnaJW_Duv4WJZYs9GFfXUso-1K0lJhqMZRTejI1cDauIzWy9TWMcZ8WBjCyIBrncIEAHZDJQiI/pubhtml

$90m USD worth today i.e. ~ 30% of market cap.

Some updates on CAPD's largest holding, Wia Gold:

"Wia Gold’s latest drilling results at Kokoseb have sharpened the project’s underground development potential, with a series of standout high-grade intercepts reinforcing continuity below the open-pit resource and confirming that the orebody remains open at depth."

https://theextractormagazine.com/2025/12/08/wia-gold-sees-underground-potential-at-kokoseb-with-standout-high-grade-results/

Rivaldo,

Thanks for your update on the acquisition of PDI. I put all the PMs (on this subject) and all the annual reports from these three companies - in four different LLMs. They all gave me the same reply - the deal is active and in CAPD's favor to the tune of ~£60m.

Very interesting. I topped up a bit yesterday, to an already sizeable position.

Thanks Rivaldo, very insightful

I find it highly interesting that Capital made Charles Macfadyen CEO of Eco Detection. Extremely high achiever from Sandvik (Global Operations), Imdex and later at Capital. From my understanding, Capital owns ~25% of Eco Detection so this shows that they see some future here - IMHO. (Could've easily discarded that venture if not).

I've increased my position substantially at 110p. The Mining-segment will approx. 4x in revenue 2027 over 2026 - and that's not really priced in. The Drilling segment progress like a clock, as it always have. New rollouts in 2027 will probably see some 5-10% price increases, considering the market backdrop, which creates operating leverage to the bottom line. 3-4 years of MSALABS investments throughout the main mining jurisdictions throughout the globe finally inflecting, with revenue +100% YoY. Free cash flow margins in this segment will be substantial in 2027. Harvest mode...

Aegis Value Fund - with +52% YTD - almost doubles its holding in Capital. Not bad.

https://www.aegisfunds.com/index

Water Intelligence held a presentation at a micro cap summit last week, in the US. Here's the link: https://event.summitcast.com/view/YNz6mnmEsXyrdRxb78w2nX/guest_book?session_id=GJE8D8PbNZzYRaeY6KEtLM

Free to register and look

Looks cheap: https://x.com/alexeliasson/status/1904894177697308922

Did you all catch Donald Trumps Executive Order from April 9? On showers in America. https://x.com/alexeliasson/status/1910575866687480040

Amazing results today, and the ticker being up +3.3% on a day when OPEC sent several O&G down almost double digits.

The most interesting part, however, is that they will contest the CPR. The CPR is what sent the stock down. I could never make any sense to that the only assets that NNPC wanted to acquire 100% of (of all 5 divestments) could've been so terrible as the CPR stated.

"... we will also present an updated CPR which reconciles the reserves and resources.."

Lets see what Maurel & Prom (largest owner), NNPC(wanted it by themselves) and R. Brown initially liked with this acquisition.

Delighted to see another insider buy today, over the market.

Delighted to see some insider buying today. 20k shares.

ST,

It's explicitly stated in the presentation that the consolidated net debt post acquisition per 06/30 would be $1065m. Current market cap, as per this minute, is $1380m so the EV would be $2,445 per 06/30. At year end 3 weeks out, or rather 6 months out from that aforementioned statement, EV would probably be closer to $2,100m. As mentioned on this and earlier calls: a lot of cash is coming late in the year.

I don't think we should add contingent "debts" as this stage, as management applies a low probability for them to happen.

Furthermore, the Gas segment alone will bring +$120m in FCF in 2025 and above $150m in 2026. (Modelling ANOH, AGPC and Sapele in stages).

It was also stated on the call yesterday that the legacy assets will be converted to PIA already in H1 2025. As Wood Mackenzie indicated in their study (2001), Seplat would see a 50% NPV uplift in their assets by changing from OML to PIA.

It's very hard for me to model these combined assets and catalysts (Legacy Oil, Legacy Gas, ANOH & Sapele, MPNU & PIA for Legacy Oil) providing anything below $360m net profit and $400m FCF next year (in a low case-scenario).

P/E ~ 4.2 OR EV/FCF ~5.5 + 8-12% dividend yield.

I usually don't point stuff out on this board, but considering all the bloggers and what-not attacking the case; I figured it would be appropriate to correct this in a positive way. I see substantial upside the coming year. Nigeria aside, it's too cheap.

The conference call was an absolute smash.

- Tax shields en masse (confident to get the tax down to Seplats level) for the MPNU assets.

- PIA for the legacy assets and the new assets next year (Huge! Probably looking at +50% on the bottom line for the Oil segment, when it's implemented).

Rough day, my condolences. It seems that we have stabilized around 170p which is nonetheless -17% for the day.

Just a reminder that interest cost on MPNU were $200m last year, up to ExxonMobil. Not an uncommon way to get some profits back before the tax line. That would've improved net profit and FCF.

As we speak, market cap is now $1150m and as previously stated net debt should be around ~900m at year end (perhaps lower) as we have cash accumulation from Seplat.

In my bear case we're doing $260m in net profit after tax and interest costs next year: which is a mere $6 in net profit per barrel; a level which Seplat's oil segment standalone only had for one year since listing, and that was during Covid 19 - and $1 per Mscf gas.

So we're at 4.5x net earnings as we speak, and I'm not a seller here obviously.

I was initially a bit disappointed that I missed the final consideration with approx. $270m (I had cash to pay $404m and it was $672m).

As per June 30th the combined group would've had $1050m in net debt and lets put it at $850m (conservative) for 31th December (3 weeks out). Furthermore, we have $200m in cash coming from OML55 and Elcrest, but let's keep that aside from our calculations at the moment.

Market cap $1500m USD + Net Debt $850m = Enterprise Value $2350m FY2024

Using EBIT, and not EBITDA, we're at approx. $900m before ANOH and Sapele expansion i.e. 2,7x ev/ebit.

Tax is nauseating high and the PIA tax scheme is delayed. Nevertheless, including 50% of ANOH for 2025 I see group net profit (after tax, after interest) at +$260m (which will increase YoY in 2026 and YoY in 2027). That's a p/e of 5,8x and there should be room for a 9-10% dividend.

Since listing in 2014 the average mean P/E for Seplat has been 8,4x; so there's approx. 40% upside to that. However, to approach 300p we need to learn how Mr. Brown will develop the MPNU fields and what's the timeline. We also need ANOH online in H2 2025 at the latest.

(ANOH is a low-tax beast that will provide +$100m FCF to the group annually).

I'd recommend that you don't sell your shares in affect before the conference call on Thursday. I'm pretty confident there's a good roadmap waiting for us, as they have had 2-3 years of planning for this.

I wish there was an edit button:

The last 5 years, during heavy investments, Seplat still managed to earn $13.6 of Free Cash Flow per BOE produced. If we exclude 2020 (Covid 19), that number is $14.9 free cash flow per boe produced. Furthermore, this is (was) under the OML tax scheme and if the PIA is enacted on these fields (which Seplat has applied for) - that number will go up significantly.

As per request, here's an excerpt of my Free Cash Flow sheet.

Assumptions are the following:

2025:

- MPNU per January 1th and Seplat is unable to increase production throughout the year i.e. 50k boepd flat.

- ANOH comes online in H2 2025

- Abiala adds 2,5k boepd net.

- Sapele adds 30 Mscf/d

2026 & 2027:

- MPNU fields grows to 65k and 75k respectively.

- ANOH 100% (and no other gas projects whatsoever)

- Abiala and Sibiri reaches 5k net

- No other oil projects/farm-ins or marginal fields

The last 5 years, during heavy investments such as ANOH, Sapele, Oben, Sibiri and Abiala, Seplat has managed to churn out $13,6 per boe produced including the year of Covid 19 ($14,9 per boe if we exclude 2020 i.e. the C19 year).

These fields will only need maintenance capex going forward, and growth capex will most likely be focused mainly to the MPNU assets. This means that in total, I don't expect capex per boe to go up significantly - only a couple of $ per boe produced.

Long story short, I'd say we're trading at a 30% FCF yield next year and the entire EV will be earned in free cash flow the coming 3 years. Link: https://i.imgur.com/13t9Mge.png