API crude data.Today 19:22
The Summer driving season, lasting from Memorial Day on Monday 27th May to Labour Day is a few days away Typically, during driving season, U.S. gasoline consumption is approximately 400,000 bpday above the average for spring and autumn. Typically, above average consumption raises demand and can lift the price of oil.
This will be an interesting period to assist in seeing if physical demand is strong or not. My money is on brent at least maintaining the low 80s for the rest of the year into 2025, excluding small temporary pull backs, but I would not be surprised at all to see a push up into the 90s, dependent on Opec+ rolling over the cuts, by early June. ( kiss of death warning ! ) and strong demand and inventory draws.
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock is released tonight, May 21st at 20:30 GMT The oil price at that time will tell you if there is a large crude draw from inventories or otherwise.
An API data draw of around +3M is the minimum in my opinion required before US holiday weekend, backed by EIA data on Thursday.
We'll see in an hour or so.
Mark