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My take on the 3rd tranche not being issued is Highly positive,
I don’t share jiving concerns on the matter of the loan repayment scheduled to be repaid by 31st July, as the loan can be extended(as evidenced twice previously).
But that the “going concern” caveat will need to be embodied in the annual results due 1st week in july(at the latest), coupled with the obvious increased cooperate cost(I’m sure Marty ain’t working for nothing/will be interesting to see what his pay packet looks like) I would imagine would be of some concern to the board(as we are running on fumes(£400k max)…unless of course there was a plan in place that would need to be executed in the next 6 weeks!
We really haven’t got long to wait..
My previous concerns of a potential RI have been made redundant by my recent communication with the company, and the share price action/lack of PR(necessary to promote such a fund raise), not to forget the obvious lapsed time, and impending
deadlines.
Gla.
I’m still leaning towards a compete buyout/takeover.
Thanks MM, interesting to hear your thoughts on Tranche 3.
And while we are waiting for a proper spike in the SP, this was last nights "falling asleep"dream and solution to getting the SP moving !!!!!
** Driving, NIBJ & MM notify AT that together with a consortium of HNWI,s (high net worth individuals) are offering US$850k for a 90% stake in ZANAGA ie roughly a shade over £1 per share. This info should really be RNS,D
** Bulletin boards become full of rumours that the company at last has received an offer, all reminding everyone of the £1.56 original IPO. Social Media platforms all predicting Zanagas super future price, especially X...formerly twitter. (You do realise that Extrader recently acquired a majority holding in Twitter, hence the change of name to X )
** Share price goes ballistic, well over the one pound figure for two generations at least!! Everybody really really happy.
**Company eventually forced to announce that "we note the recent surge in the companys share price, but other than an offer received last week to acquire a percentage of the company, we are not aware of any other real reason. We will consider this offer in due course and update the market accordingly.
** With the SP at an all time recent high, AT and Elphick, neither having enjoyed a pay day for yonks, each cash in a few hundred shares, and together with Marty, book a 10 day jolly in Dubai to consider the offer.
**Zanaga eventually update the market with the news that "after a long and eventful thirty seconds long board meeting, the recent offer to acquire the company was unanimously rejected, as we all know it is worth many multiples of the sum offered. In the meantime, we continue to consult our advisers on this matter and inform you exactly of MM,s deliberations in due course.
**Meanwhile in North Wales, Abergele police advise motorists to steer clear of the area due to traffic gridlock, as hundreds of LSE based Zanaga shareholders head for a local well known hostelry and take up the splendid offer to everyone from Driving. Zimmer frames will be provided for all very very long term shareholders, and 2) to decide which part of the world to properly celebrate and get to know each other.
Unfortunately, I then suddenly woke up in a very wet sweat....but still ...as usual...alwayshoping.
Here's what I think happened to T3, working off the Manara Minerals hypothesis:
ZIOC expected (were promised?) an end 1Q24 announcement on the Strategic Partner/s. However Manara's VBM slippage scuppered that.
At the end 1Q24, ZIOC announced the completion of T2, but noticeably did not issue T3 which ostensibly is the company's only existing funding mechanism for overheads and the Glencore loan, now due 31st July.
Why not, and perhaps significantly, why did Glencore and the NomAd not insist that T3 was issued?
I venture the answer is because ZIOC had the Strategic Partner in the bag for the end of March before events intervened. Furthermore that T3 had already been allocated as part of the Strategic Partner deal. 12m shares at 7p would cover the loan and then some.
This is all speculation, of course, but if accurate then ZIOC are currently soft pedalling while waiting for schedules to align.
Nice one, alwayshoping! here's how i see it linking into our strategic partner timeline.
On July 30th 2023 Ma'aden, via Manara Minerals, won out to buy 10% of Vale's base metals unit - pending the usual regulatory steps. However, on 19th March 2024, Ma'aden announced to the Tadawul that, 'Ma’aden is still working on completing regulatory approval and other customary conditions to complete the transaction (and that) regulatory requirements are being completed as usual, but due to their connection to multiple regulatory bodies in more than one country, obtaining approvals was not completed within the expected timeframe.'
So on 19th March, Manara was still trying to complete the VBM deal.
Why might this affect our strategic partner/s announcement due by the end of that quarter? At the FMF this January, Bob Wilt, Manara's acting CEO, told Reuters that, '"Manara is evaluating a host of opportunities, post closure of the Vale deal, and Reko Diq is one of them" - (1) effectively Wilt was saying that Manara wouldn't move on to the next deal until after VBM closure.
So, on 19th March, Manara announced that they had not met their date for VBM closure and, from Wilt's words in January, could not move onto the next deal until they had done so. The VBM closure eventually happened on 28th April just gone. This would mean that any deal on Zanaga could not be announced by the end of March (1Q24) and, furthermore, that could not be announced by the end of April when ZIOC announced the Feasibility Study update RNS.
So the end of March *and* the end of April was missed.
Compounding matters, at the start of May the Saudis dispatched a large team, including Manara Minerals, to P'ak'istan to work on the Reko Diq copper/gold project and a host of Saudi-P'ak'istan matters. 'Executives from Saudi Arabian mining company Manara Minerals are in Islamabad to continue talks about buying a stake in P'ak'istan’s Reko Diq gold and copper project, a P'ak'istan government document showed on Monday.' - (2) I venture this meant that Zanaga had missed their end of March (and April) slot in Manara's calendar, before Manara's corporate bandwidth was deployed in early May onto Reko Diq .
Rewinding to the original MM-Vale deal at the end of July 23 and a possible 6 month closure, I think this informed ZIOC's BOD's that a Zanaga deal could be pencilled in for the end of March 24, 1Q24. Accordingly in the September 2023 update ZIOC projected an end 1Q24 date for a Strategic Partner announcement.
It all fits, suggesting a deal on Zanaga could be next in line following an agreement on Reko Diq.
(Note : at this point savvy readers will extend this theory into what happened to T3).
(1) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-arabias-manara-minerals-fund-plans-metals-trading-arm-2024-01-11/
(2) https://www.mining.com/web/saudi-manara-minerals-team-in-****stan-for-talks-on-reko-diq-mine-stake-document-shows
nice one, alwayshoping! here's how i see it linking into our strategic partner timeline.
on july 30th 2023 ma'aden, via manara minerals, won out to buy 10% of vale's base metals unit - pending the usual regulatory steps. however, on 19th march 2024, ma'aden announced to the tadawul that, 'ma’aden is still working on completing regulatory approval and other customary conditions to complete the transaction (and that) regulatory requirements are being completed as usual, but due to their connection to multiple regulatory bodies in more than one country, obtaining approvals was not completed within the expected timeframe.'
so on 19th march, manara was still trying to complete the vbm deal.
why might this affect our strategic partner/s announcement due by the end of that quarter? well, at the fmf this january, bob wilt, manara's acting ceo, told reuters that, '"manara is evaluating a host of opportunities, post closure of the vale deal, and reko diq is one of them" - (1) effectively wilt was saying that manara wouldn't move on to the next deal until vbm closure.
so, on 19th march, manara announced that they had not met their date for vbm closure and, from wilt's words in january, could not move onto the next deal until they had done so. the vbm closure eventually happened on 28th april just gone. this would mean that any deal on zanaga could not be announced by the end of march (1q24) and, furthermore, that could not be announced by the end of april when zioc announced the feasibility study update rns.
so the end of march *and* the end of april was missed.
compounding matters, at the start of may the saudis dispatched a large team, including manara minerals, to pak'istan to work on the reko diq copper/gold project and a host of saudi-pak'istan matters. 'executives from saudi arabian mining company manara minerals are in islamabad to continue talks about buying a stake in ****stan’s reko diq gold and copper project, a ****stan government document showed on monday.' - (2) i venture this meant that zanaga had missed their end of march (and april) slot in manara's calendar, before manara's corporate bandwidth was deployed in early may onto reko diq.
rewinding to the original mm-vale deal at the end of july 23 and a possible 6 month closure, i think this informed zioc's bod that a zanaga deal could be pencilled in for the end of march 24, 1q24. accordingly in the september 2023 update zioc projected an end1q24 date for a strategic partner announcement.
it all fits, suggesting a deal on zanaga could be next in line following an agreement on reko diq.
(note : at this point savvy readers will extend this theory into what happened to t3).
(1) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-arabias-manara-minerals-fund-plans-metals-trading-arm-2024-01-11/
(2) https://www.mining.com/web/saudi-manara-minerals-team-in-****stan-for-talks-on-reko-diq-mine-stake-document-shows
Ex...you posted as I was typing...so you won by at least a length !!
MM; hopefully you are 100% correct .
""Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) announces an update on the signing of its joint venture Manara Minerals Investment Company a binding agreement to acquire 10% of Vale Base Metals Limited.""
Reasons For The Delay on The Date of The Event Previously Announced....."".Regulatory requirements are being completed as usual, but due to their connection to multiple regulatory bodies in more than one country, obtaining approvals was not completed within the expected timeframe.""
As usual....alwayshoping.
the context to the thesis seems to be here :
https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/equities/saudis-maaden-completes-10-acquisition-of-brazils-vale-base-metals-fmf9t71p
.."may 1, 2024
related topics
metals
commodities
saudi arabia
brazil
acquisition
saudi arabian mining company (ma’aden) said on wednesday it had completed the 10% acquisition of brazil’s base metals company, according to a bourse filing on the saudi stock exchange (tadawul).
ma’aden, which is majority owned by the public investment fund (pif), said its joint venture manara minerals investment company, had completed the acquisition of 10% of vale base metals limited on april 30, following a delay in regulatory approvals.
in july 2023, the company announced manara minerals had signed a binding agreement to acquire a 10% stake in vale base metals for $2.6 billion, as part of a strategy to invest in global mining assets.
...
in a bourse filing in march, ma’aden said the transaction could not be completed as scheduled, as regulatory approvals had been delayed."
you seem to be arguing that ma'aden can't chew gum and walk at the same time...ie couldn't progress zioc because it was pre-occupied with 'bigger things' ie vale base minerals. fair enough.
that might explain missing a march deadline, but 6 weeks have passed and ma'aden has since been actively reporting mainly 'bread and butter' matters on tadawul : an esop award, a change to audit committee, the calling (and then result) of an egm, the first quarter results etc .
i think ma'aden being subsequently distracted by reko dik/p4kistan is a more plausible reason for delay :
https://www.agbi.com/infrastructure/2024/04/pif-close-to-buying-****stan-copper-mine-stake/
5th april 2024
.."saudi arabia’s public investment fund is close to finalising a deal to buy a $1 billion stake in ****stan’s reko diq copper-gold mine, in what would be a saudi lifeline for the debt-ridden country, a ****stani newspaper has reported..."
especially given that these discussions have been pushed back from december last year and...as the same article reports :
.."a new government under prime minister shehbaz sharif took power in march. ."
afaics
let's hope there are no further competing claims on the saudis time.
atb
"We are looking overseas for interests in copper, lithium, iron-ore, and nickel," said Wilt.
https://m.miningweekly.com/print-version/saudi-maaden-has-extracted-lithium-from-seawater-ceo-says-2024-05-22
Hands up, no blurting out. The filing is time stamped.
Edit.
A 19th March filing, reported on the 20th.
In the September 2023 update and in the November Investor Presentation the company confidently predicted an MoU with a Strategic Partner/s at the end of the March quarter.
Why and what gave them the confidence to do so?
ZIOC's BoD would not have been so presumptive as to dictate the timeframe to the likes of the Chinese, Saudis or perhaps the Emiratis et al., so I'm confident that it was the Strategic/s themselves that set or at least agreed to the timeframe.
So what might have happened to derail the announcement?
The answer to that question might well be explained by a 20th March regulatory filing to the Tadawul, and what Bob Wilt himself said in January.
May 10th and Vale see a structural deficit for high grade as the iron ore splits in two. The outcome will be 2 distinct steel industries - green and traditional.
DECARBONIZATION IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY CREATING TWO-TIERED IRON ORE MARKET
Eduardo de Mello Franco, Marketing Manager of iron ore pricing at Vale said that structural undersupply of high-grade iron ore, which is projected to tip 70 million tonnes by 2030, is expected to drive a wedge between mid-grade iron ore sinter fines and high-grade iron ore.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/decarbonization-in-the-steel-industry-creating-two-tiered-iron-ore-market/
I personally think that the excitement's in tents.
;-)
GLA
I'd rather they get off the sofa and into the bedroom.
We are all well aware that both the Saudis and the Chinese are desperate for future supply of high grade ore. Are either of them really going to damage this relationship by out-bidding or trumping the other to acquire either all or a percentage of Zanaga. It really does look like some sort of "partnership" of these two suitors will feature prominently who eventually acquires control of Zanaga.
AIMHO and DYOR but usual...alwayshoping.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2513451/business-economy
Ship builders conference last week debated a chronic shortage of ships. Recall that AD Ports and Vale covered this in May 2023 with a JV on the VLOCs needed to ship iron ore....
‘THERE’S A CHRONIC SHORTAGE OF SHIPS’: IRON ORE TRADES CONCLUDE DEBATE AT THIS YEAR’S GENEVA DRY
'...an in-depth explanation into how steel mills can go green.
The easiest way, Langston said, would be to recycle, but there is not enough recyclable steel in the world. There is also the direct reduced iron (DRI) method, adding a supplement into electric arc furnaces, ideally using green hydrogen in the process, something that is currently underway at two mills in Europe. To produce steel via DRI requires high grade iron ore, not just in terms of Fe content, but also low impurity, something that is spurring the development of the huge Simandou iron ore mine in West Africa where first exports are scheduled to be shipped next year.
With this green transition, Langston told the nearly 600 delegates attending Geneva Dry: “There are going to be new trades emerging. There are going to be new centres of steel production.” Langston suggested both the Middle East and Australia would become more prominent as steel manufacturers.
https://splash247.com/theres-a-chronic-shortage-of-ships-iron-ore-trades-conclude-debate-at-this-years-geneva-dry/
This from May 2023:
The agreement also includes a maritime collaboration to explore opportunities related to management and operation of very large ore carriers (VLOCs) as well as other possible avenues of partnership.
https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2023/05/24/ad-ports-group-and-vale-to-jointly-develop-low-carbon-mega-hubs-for-steel-industry
Hi MM,
Thanks for this potted history, which seems a good reflection of how things have developed (though I hadn't picked up AT's comment that ''Glencore had been presented with development options that, in hindsight, they probably wished that they had taken'.)
20/20 hindsight, eh ?
On the 'strategic' side of things, Elphick volunteered the importance of P-N as a deepwater resource at the AGM I attended, that US (?) concern MAY have lessened subsequently with AD Ports' arrival on scene , but - topically - may be re-awakened by the Little Den just-announced (re)launch of Equatorial Congo Air, in J/V with China's AVIC (see depeches).
AVIC is no run-of-the-mill aircraft leasing co :
"The Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) is a Chinese state-owned aerospace and defense conglomerate headquartered in Beijing. AVIC is overseen by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. It is ranked 140th in the Fortune Global 500 list as of 2021, and has over 100 subsidiaries, 27 listed companies and 500,000 employees across the globe. AVIC is also the sixth largest defense contractor globally as of 2022 and second largest Chinese defense contractor with total revenue of $79 billion (from both defense and non-defense services."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_Industry_Corporation_of_China
Hmm...
This all looks like a re-run of Pan Am's 'Trojan horse' re-militarisation role in Latin America and the Pacific pre WW2, see
https://academic.oup.com/jah/article-abstract/107/2/525/5907750
.." Farsighted military strategists immediately grasped the potential value of air bases strategically placed around the world, but the military did not determine their selection, placement, or development. Pan Am was a private, commercial enterprise, whose unprecedented, and some said quixotic, venture to use marine planes to fly to uncharted territories—from the impenetrable jungle canopies of Latin America to the tiny specks of islands in the Pacific Ocean—prepared the way for the bases and air supply lines used in World War II. Pan Am developed air bases at Midway, Wake, and Guam. Their bases in Brazil and Africa* allowed Pan Am to shuttle aircraft to the British forces fighting Erwin Rommel as part of the Lend-Lease program...., etc. In addition, through shrewd maneuvers, Pan Am essentially dismantled the German plans to use Lufthansa as a cover for developing a military capability in Latin America and Central America..."
* the Brazil - West Africa air link was expanded [post Egypt] to include a route through Central Africa, primarily to tap a supply of uranium from what was then the Belgian Congo (now DRC)....
And, re BaoWu Steel, it doesn't seem to be bringing much mining expertise to its projects in Australia and Simandou, but is of course a major consumer of product in its own right...AND the lynchpin of China's intended industry-wide 'single-desk' ore procurement policy.
All good st
PIF and Ma’aden sign an agreement to establish a company to invest in mining assets globally
PRESS RELEASES
11 January 2023
Riyadh, KSA
The company will initially invest in iron ore, copper, nickel, and lithium, as a non-operating partner taking minority equity positions in mining assets globally
https://www.pif.gov.sa/en/news-and-insights/press-releases/2023/pif-and-maaden/
Hi AWS-
Yep my neck of the woods, hope you have a great time over in north wales.
Thanks for all the good research you share, hoping it all stacks up to a positive outcome for all invested here.
Gla.
Hi Driving; thought of you this morning; driving across from Porthmadog area to Chester; bypassing Abergele.
From memory, it is you that has a place there ??
Hi Mitch - Zanaga IR/PR has always been meagre, and so it often feels that us humble (irritating?) PIs are left scrabbling around in the dark trying to piece together a double-sided jigsaw. As I see it Zanaga development has had 3 aborted take-offs, only one of which can be part-attributed to Glencore.
Efforts first stalled in December 2014 as the iron ore price dived. Elphick said this, 'During the Funding Round initiative conducted jointly by ZIOC and Glencore, a number of entities expressed an interest in discussing an investment in the Project alongside the joint venture partners. Engagement with interested entities is expected to continue, however, we believe that current iron ore market conditions need to stabilise before formal discussions can resume.'
Then we had the COIDIC era which ran up to 2018-19. As far as I can see this stalled for a number of reasons; China-Congo relations, primarily debt issues, US concerns over China having a deep water port in the Atlantic, and 'Glencore'. Trahar was reported into here as saying that, 'Glencore had been presented with development options that, in hindsight, they probably wished that they had taken'.
Now in we are on the third attempt. My understanding that, post 2018-19, ZIOC then took the initiative and pursued engagement with our Chinese EPC (still not identified but likely to be PSEI). This stalled during the Covid idiocy when the Chinese were locked into China, and others locked out. Matters resumed in 2022 and, as part of the process (and driven by the previously engaged Strategics) Glencore agreed to take a back seat, selling their executive and controlling interest to ZIOC in return for the off-take agreement. This I think is key. Elphick said as much. His statement near enough confirms that the Strategics asked for and then got a single point of contact that was much more ZIOC than Glencore:
Nov 22: "The acquisition of Glencore Projects' shareholding in the Project is a key milestone for ZIOC's shareholders, *** DEMONSTRATING TO THIRD PARTY INVESTORS THAT THE PROJECT IS NOW REPRESENTED BY A SINGLE ENTITY AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGY***. THE Acquisition is value accretive to Shareholders and increases effective equity ownership of the Project by existing Shareholders, enhancing their look-through ownership of the Project and securing control of the Project without paying any premium for such interest. Furthermore, entering into the Marketing Agreement with Glencore International now provides comfort to investors and financiers that the Project's future production is underpinned by one of the largest iron ore traders globally."
On the other hand, Simandou has always been driven by established iron ore miners (whereas Glencore are iron ore traders) such as Rio Tinto and Baowu Steel (hint).
WORLD’S BIGGEST MINING PROJECT TO START AFTER 27 YEARS OF SETBACKS AND SCANDALS
January 2024
https://www.ft.com/content/80f37963-c718-4f8b-8d77-0f0d5b1c99f
An excellent comparison MM.
Unfortunately it brings me back to the question I have been asking for many years - why is Simandou progressing and we are not?
The only answer I have is just one word. It beings with G and ends in an E.
What I originally thought then, thanks, MM.