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Really? Oh. Moving on..
MM : For as long as GLEN seeks to extract value from the Marketing/Royalty arrangements, it will be associated with the Project...and with C-B.
The EITI people for one will be looking closely at the deal that (we all hope) emerges. As will a number of other ESG -focussed parties, whether we like it or not.
IMO, of course.
ATB
What a great post MM, at last someone speaking with some sense ;-)
Let's think about this intelligently for a moment.
The US are after a NY flat that was bought in 2014 from alleged 2013 misdeeds and which since has never been occupied. I doubt Big D and his daughter give a stuff, frankly. If anything it will push them further into the BRICS++ camp. China have extended an invitation for President Nguesso to pay an official visit to Beijing this August and, as chronicled here, the week before last Sheik Maktoum proposed a State Visit to Dubai for President Nguesso at some point. The invite was made by the UAE minister for cooperation who had previously dealt with little d over AD Ports and who again reinforced the opportunities of infrastructure investment by the Emirates. This in Dubai where Big D and Co keep a number of properties. So, as I say, I doubt Big D gives a stuff.
The sideshow has got nothing to do with Glencore at all. They've positioned themselves as a minority shareholder in a resource project which is very likely to be sold to and developed by 3rd Parties, leaving Glencore with no direct dealings with Brazzaville.
The world has turned.
Hi Driving,
Re the yanks, I think the situation just got more complicated ;-<
https://www.icij.org/investigations/pandora-papers/us-prosecutors-push-to-seize-apartment-tied-to-congolese-president-in-luxury-trump-complex
The US Gov filing 29 March is a civil asset forfeiture case against Big Den, with details.
Timing is 'unhelpful' - to say the least - and seems particularly a complicating factor for GLEN, who's working hard on clearing up historic issues on the ethics compliance front.
The 'reputational risk' stakes have got higher, which may impact GLEN's overall priorities in any deal and/or the structure of the transaction, AFAICS.
OTOH, this (or the likelihood/possibility of something similar) will have been a 'known unknown' for some time and a contingency that's hopefully already been factored in.
'Dum spiro, spero'
GLA
Ex-excellent post.
May I add one observation..
And that the yanks policy, in turn forces “camp china” to “speed up the (Zanaga) process?
Competing bidders..how exciting!!
Gla.
Thanks for the link, MM, a couple of observations :
.."Oman has started construction of what could be the world’s largest green steel plant that plans to use iron ore from Cameroon.." if true, suggests that Vale may be shopping around elsewhere.
Perhaps Mbalam-Nabeba ?
https://www.mining.com/web/cameroon-to-start-building-railway-to-disputed-iron-ore-project-in-august/
.."The US has been actively brokering Saudi, Emirati and Qatari investment in riskier jurisdictions, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, where western companies struggle to enter, in order to keep China out, according to executives from mining companies and trading houses, as well as a senior US government official..."
When elephants fight, the ants get crushed.
DRC is more obviously 'strategic' , but C-B - as you've pointed out - appears to be in China's camp. Could the US act as a spoiler...or as another contender ?
.."the kingdom aims to secure copper, IRON ORE , lithium and nickel from overseas for processing domestically through Manara Minerals, a joint venture established last year between Ma’aden and the Public Investment Fund. In return for minority investments into established operations run by blue-chip companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto, it aims to receive metals supply — a model Japanese trading houses have successfully deployed for decades..."
Describes the Zanaga situation to a T...
.."Much like the Chinese, the Gulf states are promising resource-rich nations an investment package centred around mining; Zambia expects the UAE to invest in agriculture, tourism and energy..."
AD has a recently launched Africa -specific solar energy fund through Masdar, we already know that DXB offers useful banking facilities.
All helping the 'mood music', IMO
GLA
HOW GULF STATES ARE PUTTING THEIR MONEY INTO MINING
With Gulf nations raking in $400bn of fossil fuel revenues annually, but facing a future where hydrocarbons will be phased out, expanding into mining is a logical step. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing heavily in new technologies and will need access to their own steady supply of raw materials.
“The Middle East is looking to diversify and has a war chest,” says Richard Blunt, partner at Baker McKenzie, the law firm that represented Zambia on the IRH deal. “They’ve got this massive advantage as they can do government-to-government deals and have patient capital yet come without the diplomatic pinch involved in choosing between Chinese and western investors.”
Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “Vision 2030” to modernise Saudi Arabia’s economy, mining and minerals processing are earmarked to become the third industrial “pillar” next to oil and gas and petrochemicals. “Nation building” is the main driver behind Saudi’s push, says Tim Keating, a former head of mining for the Oman Investment Authority.
> Then this on ports. ADP not mentioned but you get the drift:
The emirate of Dubai, a key precious metals trading hub, already has a large foothold in Africa’s ports and logistics network, the fortunes of which are closely tied to commodities. Dubai government-owned DP World has won port concessions in DRC and most recently Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam, a crucial shipping juncture for copper from Zimbabwe and Zambia.
“The majority of these resources are landlocked. There’s a huge opportunity to reduce the cost of the supply chain,” says Mohammed Akoojee, head of sub-Saharan Africa at DP World, which hopes to double the capacity of its terminals business in the next three to five years, including expanding bulk shipping.
https://www.chinastrategy.org/2024/04/01/how-gulf-states-are-putting-their-money-into-mining/
You cannot value Zanaga as a whole until the full extent of the Resource/Reserve is known.
$200m+ is loose change given that 30mtpa is $3.5bn++ every year.
If increasing the JORC Reserve trebles that RoM then ZIOC’s BoD will surely insist on further drilling as part of any investment package.
As the last drilling efforts cost over $200 million, I doubt there will be any more drilling until the current resource is substantially mined.
Not too sure if it is "packed" in to the process around FS cost report
I suspect that having anyone (outsider) doing potentially price- sensitive work on ZIOC's concession would be an RNSable development, surely?
GLA
Interesting point MM on strategic investor doing more drilling. Honestly would not be surprised if they already did the last 6 month...
...and they are prepared to fund the necessary infrastructure
HOW NORTH AFRICAN RAILWAY IS ON TRACK TO HELPING CHINA DE-RISK ITS IRON ORE SUPPLY
Algeria’s Gara Djebilet iron ore mine has reserves of 3.5 billion tonnes that could help China de-risk its supplies of the steel raw material
Chinese state-owned CRCC is helping to build a vital railway to connect the mine to the Algerian national rail network
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3257816/how-north-african-railway-track-helping-china-de-risk-its-iron-ore-supply
Hi V10 - I think that the FS update and the port are all but finalised, perhaps waiting on a ZIOC Board meeting before being signed off and released.
The Strategic Partner news is dependent on this; the size of Zanaga.
I think the Strategic Partner will sign an MoU to show their intent to earn in to and then finance the project at some stipulated time in the future. For our purposes the all important investment valuation will hinge on one factor - the ultimate size of Zanaga. To date the NPV is calculated on the proven reserve sufficient to deliver the staged 12-30mtpa project out to 30 years of production.
However that staged project is predicated on a small fraction of what could be at Zanaga. The ultimate Reserve could be 5, 8 or even 10 times the current JORC. So....I think the Strategic Partner MoU will include the central stipulation that the Partner will fund an extended drill campaign to prove up even more of the Resource into the Reserve category.
This means that we will have to be patient for our eventual jackpot. I have numbers for that eventuality. However and in the meantime an outline of their intentions could and should be worth an immediate SP of £3+.
Yes but what will the sp be in 3 weeks...or what are we hoping for on strategic partner news?
More detail from last week's Dubai meeting between President Nguesso and the Emirati minister for International Cooperation. Front page and P.16 of today's 'Dispatches from Brazzaville' newspaper.
The Dubai Minister extended an official invitation from the Emir to Big D, having talked of direct Emirati investment into C-B and the establishment of direct flights by Fly Emirates.
https://www.lesdepechesdebrazzaville.fr/flex/php/simple_document.php?doc=20240409_DBZ_DBZ_ALL.pdf
Some more here on twitter:
Présidence de la République du Congo - Officiel @PR_Congo
L’ ouverture d’une ligne aérienne directe Dubaï -Brazzaville par la compagnie Fly Emirates est à l’étude. Cette annonce a été faite par les autorités émiraties au Président @SassouNGuesso_lors de son court séjour à Dubaï après sa visite officielle à Bakou.
https://twitter.com/PR_Congo/status/1777709278620512711
A report today from Bloomberg that 'Simandou' funding has been signed, having received approval by 'Chinese regulators'.
'...The signing occurred on April 2 after approvals came from the country’s transitional parliament and Chinese regulators, Guinea’s presidency said in a statement on X.'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/guinea-partners-get-15-billion-funds-for-top-iron-ore-deposit
Correlates with my post in here (above in thread), from 4th April, that the 'near-final' report of our Chinese EPC is likely waiting on official, Beijing approval - and hence the March tour of Chinese projects in Congo by the Chinese Ambassador.
Given the above, has the EPC report also been approved by Chinese regulators? Are Zanaga investment and development now at the country-to-country level? Does this explain the radio silence from the ZIOC BoD, Marty and Trahar? I reckon so.
> News slated for within the next 3 weeks.....
Thanks for sharing MM, he’s certainly left a trail of breadcrumbs to follow.
FWIW I don't think our new CEO Marty will be making official comment until news flow is released. The reason being is that next developments (FS, port and Strategic Partner/s) are likely dependent on Government-level events, for example the ratification of the CB-UAE CEPA trade deal to free up any AD Ports deal on a mineral port.
However...Marty has been active on LinkedIn and his 'likes' are a checklist of people and companies that together indicate much activity behind the scenes on a corporate level. Marty has liked:
Manara Minerals,
Saudi Arabia's Deputy Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mining Affairs, Eng. Khalid Al-Mudaifer who was CEO of Ma'aden and is now on the BoD of Manara Minerals,
AD Ports several times, plus
Green steel financiers and institutions.
There're also these, which are very specific to mine development:
AMC Consultants - Strategy optimisation for miners (think EPP perhaps),
International Facility Services - mining camp facilities and management across Africa,
Stanton Chase, executive search with expertise in Natural Resources, Mining and Energy, and
Steyn Reddy Associates - Global Leaders in Land Access & Resettlement
https://www.maaden.com.sa/en/about/bod
https://www.amcconsultants.com/just-how-optimal-is-optimal
https://www.ifsafrica.com/
https://www.stantonchase.com/expertise
https://steynreddy.com/
> All of which give an insight into ZIOC's work streams, thinking and planning.
Reading between the lines of our last RNS, the port discussions are well advanced - (see RNS below). Better still is news from last week that Big D met with the UAE minister in Dubai and who again plugged UAE infrastructure in the Congo...
RNS, 28th March 2024:
PORT MOU: Significant progress has been made in securing interest from large scale port development companies interested in participating in the development of port infrastructure for the Zanaga Project. In parallel with the 2014 FS update process, these discussions are progressing.
>Significant progress, companies plural, and does 'parallel with FS update' mean the end of this month as well as the FS?
UAE MINISTER REEM AL HASHIMY
On twitter there was a tweet yesterday (1) that detailed a meeting last week in Dubai between Bid D and the Emirati Minister i/c of their infrastructure projects in the Congo. Last October (2) the same minister, Reem Al Hashimy, met with little d when they specifically discussed AD Ports, and in which little d requested the UAE to guarantee its success:
(1)
H.E. Denis Sassou Nguesso, PR of Congo, met on 06/04 with a delegation from Expo City Dubai Authority, led by its CEO, H.E. Reem Al Hashimy, Minister of Coop. of the UAE. The meeting focused on the common desire to carry out infrastructure projects in Congo.
https://twitter.com/Boukary2016/status/1776731085994328535
(2)
This October 6, at #Dubai Expo City, Minister Denis @ChristelSassou Nguesso had a working meeting with HE Reem Ebrahim Al Hashimy, UAE Minister of State in charge of #Coopération International....The two ministers also discussed the ongoing collaboration between Congo and @ADPortsGroup regarding the construction project of a state-of-the-art multipurpose terminal within the autonomous port of Pointe-Noire. After reviewing the progress of the said project, Minister Denis @ChristelSassou Nguesso requested support from the UAE government to guarantee its success.
https://twitter.com/CooperationCG/status/1710358575908786349
>> Did the UAE minister last week plug AD Ports with Big D? The evidence suggests she did.
And, for completeness' sake, the EITI's observations re (1) Zanaga and (2) Mbalam-Nabeba, upcountry :
(1) Mining Project Development (MPD) Congo S.A. (member of FedMines) has been held since December 2022 by the sole shareholder Zanaga Iron Ore Company, which is listed on the London AIM Market (Glencore holds 48.26% of ZIOC).
(2) Sangha Mining Development Ltd is owned by Hong Kong-registered Best Way Finance. It is itself owned by another Hong Kong-based company called GRL20 Nominee. The structure is ultimately owned by a holding company registered in the UK territory of Anguilla, operating under the name of First Director Inc. It is not a member of FedMine.
Looking at the ownership structures, which of the above would you wanting to do business with ?
GLA
And the relevant bit re Sapro Mayoko, also p 80, being :
.."In 2016, the Congolese company SAPRO Mayoko (Congo) bought DMC from the South African group Exxaro Resources Ltd, which held the Mayoko-Lékoumou iron ore mining licence in the Niari department. The company exported 40,000 tonnes of iron ore (DSO) in 2019, but since then it has not exported any more iron ore due to the poor state of the Chemin de Fer Congo-Océan (CFCO) railway line, which is in poor condition..."
FYI
The relevant bit from the EITI (p 80) being...
.." In July 2021, a third iron ore mining licence (the Mayoko Moussoundji licence) in the Niari department, held by Congo Mining (a subsidiary of the British group Midus Holding Limited), was withdrawn by the government. In August 2023, this licence was reallocated to the Turkish company ULSAN Mining Congo SAU. In 2021, the three companies affected by the licence withdrawals (Congo Iron, Congo Mining and Core Mining) and their investors (Sundance Resources, Midus Holding Limited and Core) initiated arbitration proceedings against the Congolese government before the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI)...."
FYI
MM. As always I bow to your superior knowledge. Not sure why Zioc bothered appointing a CEO, when they could have hired you for I suspect much less. :)
All I am saying is that everything is speculation until it is confirmed by RNS. That means all we know at present is that both companies have appointed CEOs recently and both are scheduled to announce strategic partners by the end of April.
Whatever you say, and however reasoned your arguments are, everything else is speculation as regards both Zioc and KP2 until it is officially announced. Personally I think both will be Chinese dominated projects, but I honestly don't give a toss as long as one or both emerge from their long-standing inertia.
We should all know in another 3 or 4 weeks anyway, so lets leave it until then.