Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Final thoughts before clocking off for the weekend.
Did Colin expect his appearance with the Roasties to boost the SP? What is his strategy for returning shareholder value here?
Ultimately the only thing that will drive this share is news and concrete news that will bring shareholder value.
The current market is full of companies that have a huge sp/value disconnect. Money may be in short supply and investors keen to invest in companies with a clearly positive future. This brings us back to Rick Rule's idea of lifestyle companies.
If you would like an insight into what can happen when one of these overlooked, abandoned companies does release game changing news, have a gander at Tempest Therapeutics. Last week it rose 4000% in one day. That is what can happen should the right news be released. News that provides a guarantee that shareholders will be rewarded for buying in. Right now, most AIM companies do not offer dividends so there is simply no guarantee of a ROI.
I sincerely hope that Colin is getting his ducks in a line. Gold price is now just shy of 2000 USD. He must surely have received an interim report of BR's feasibility.
I have been frustrated by how tedious the wait for any material news has been here. Once Q2 gold is reported and BR report is released, we will be that much closer to finding out if 2024 will be our year. If only to stop us hearing Colin bang on about Kalumbila. Have a good weekend everyone.
As much as everyone was v disappointed that BR fell well short of what was promoted , this current £9.5m market cap is kind of ridiculous.
Some confirmation that we are indeed at 85kg plus per month gold and a clear demonstration of the net element that’s flowing through to xtr would demonstrate what a great entry point there is now and all the way up to 2.5p regardless of BR.
A million quid dividend wouldn’t go amiss either.
Also to repeat one of the other points from the RR interview in response to bens good post there.
From 8.57 “When price is not indicative of value and the board have gone quiet, what do you do.” …..I BUY
And to add a variant on Bens point that,
>> Right now, most AIM companies do not offer dividends so there is simply no guarantee of a ROI.
The significant variant to this is,
Right now, most AIM natural resource companies do not have sustainable income to underpin their market cap.
What will see xtract excel, once global demand increases, will not necessarily be only from its own level of promotion that it can put out, but the stability and encouragement that its income will offer through its own continued exploration potential compared to its many peers in the sector that have had to park up their projects through that lack in funding, or even worse.
The longer the recession grips, the stronger xtracts position should be when it turns.
Thanks for some interesting posts in reply to Ricks podcast. As this shows, it isn't only the explorers who are feeling the heat:
https://www.mining.com/web/freeport-mcmoran-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-on-production-boost/
But as pointed out by BH, gold is back at $2000 an ounce and looking strong.
A dividend of ANY amount from Bird and his cohorts, let alone £1M? What planet do you live on Cyber? When has Bird ever found it necessary to feed his `loyal ` investors with a dividend?.
Living on planet hopeful which is why I’m still in this share - but I take your point, pretty unlikely.
If we are generating even 7m net over next 2 years after overheads , I don’t mind investing 2-3m in a smart exploration program in nw Zambia .
Still leaves 3 or 4 m that should be distributed.
My main issue with xtr at the moment is the cryptic mumbojumbo that are our financial statements.
By accident or design ?
Either way I really really don’t like it - the financial reporting is not fit for purpose
If not such a dividend, even a half a million gbp invested in a share buyback scheme in 2024 would add at least 2p to the share price imho..
Especially in the context of it being so extremely affordable versus Manica ongoing revenue .. and still allow him rainbow chase his already chosen rainbows too.
Manica gives so many opportunities to enhance shareholder value that go way outside the box that Mr Bird has been conditioned to think within off the back of years of no such ongoing strong revenue in any of his AIM companies. He just needs to open his mind up.....
(but he won't because his ego is obsessed with the thrill of the rainbow chasing drill for one more chart topper.. 5p a share is boring to CB .. 15p a share may barely excite him... 50p a share would get the old dog boned)
MTMU
curious to know on what basis you believe a buyback of a mere half million would add 2p to the sp. Also whether you can recall a single company ever whose sp benefitted so much from such a modest stimulus.
Unless of course you're teasing us.
Some positive news at least is that all the warrants that were issued along with the last placing in ‘21 will expire 2yrs after the date they were approved at the ‘21 AGM which will be on Tuesday 24th. About 55 million ‘altogether’ with 49m+ @ 8p
What with the incentivised 24,800,000 directors and staff warrants at 10p that CB would still get of those 10m, is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism using targets and timeframes to continually try to rally the share price up toward the strike prices.
Early on got close, but no cigar! Which is somewhat ironic.
>>is it any wonder why he was super keen on optimism………
Shows there was an ulterior motive behind exaggerating targets and timescales.wouldn’t you for a £1m bonus? Which begs the question again wether those targets that were given were actually then a genuine expectation? With what there is now being more in line with more realistic geological expectations of quality and quantity of BR’s resources and its optimisation which both aspects were all alluded to in the preliminary study prior to any of the phase 1 and 2 drilling and other technical work being input.
So in that respect, maybe it shouldn’t be looked on as though the project has fallen as far short of those targets, but more in line with what could have and has been achieved from the study recommendations so it should be leaving a far lesser degree of disappointment, if any than the amount currently being perceived by shareholders.
Howezap
I’m pretty sure these options give the directors the right to buy shares at the exercise price, in this case 10p so at a price of 10p are basically worthless so the SP would need to be significantly above this to be worthwhile to CB etc. So not sure I buy your theory.
Cheers
James
Hi James, when you consider with that early saturation of promo he managed to drive market cap up to £60m. Things could have been a lot different if it were not for Covid and the subsequent economic fall out since. Covid had significantly delayed FB development with its restrictions and port closures that held up the modules being delivered. The economic headwinds since have only increased leaving the resource sector heavily down.
Without any of those headwinds and a plant that would have been producing revenue a potential 12-18 months sooner in a period that analysts in ‘21 were then predicting a bullish market ahead. Can easily see the potential to have continued that push beyond 10p with a lot of the better news available for promo.
I believe there is some validity in my theory certainly earlier on, but that theory i would say in general is more heavily weighted toward what was in that early study when I talk of the ‘perceived disappointment’.
Ultimately, the anticipated bulk low grade tonnages between 0.1 and 0.2%cueq that were deemed pivotal for the viability of the resource is one critical statement in that study.
Hi Howezap
You’re obviously entitled to you opinion/theory, I was simply saying that I think it has some holes in it for example that CB would get a million quid if the price hit 10p.
Logically CB is only ever going to make serious money from XTR if he sells the company/sells an asset and takes a dividend. He is in a nice position though as his XTR salary pays for his shares and probably a few beers etc on top of that he can grant himself options etc to further benefit if he can find the golden goose (or copper goose).
Cheers
James
James, the share options to directors and staff were ‘awarded’ to them in early ‘21 with the option to sell ‘from’ 10p
Not required to buy them.
Probably my mistake for referring to as warrants as otherwise they would have been issued to a broker.
With respect
Guy
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/award-of-share-options-m86nqgci5sa5gs0.html
Howezap
These option give the owner e.g. the directors the right to buy the share at a price of 10p, it’s not that the shares vest once the price is over 10p.
Cheers
James
3 cardbrag,
Happy to stand corrected but I expect it would extraordinarily rare, if not kinda unprecedented that a company in this AIM sector with such a small market cap undertook such a share buyback exercise .. And therefore there is no meaningful precedent to benchmark against .. and hence I remain happy stand by my 2p guesstimate below..
This is a highly illiquid stock anywhere sub 1.75 p.. especially in these barbaric market conditions.... and even semi decent volumes of buying could lift it meaningfully.. So, if CB up front committed in Nov or Dec to for eg to 100k gbp buyback per month for 6 months from Jan 24, saying it was readily affordable including having almost no impact on xtr's asset development plans for 2024, that would be a big thing.. also including big publicity he could derive off the back of the uniqueness of such an exercise for such a small cap in metals exploration sector against such a brutal market backdrop too .. etc..
Buybacks would be a novel idea for CB ! He doesn't generally do things like that, why would he do that ?
It wouldn't perpetuate the gravy train as such, just make it worth more SP wise.
Gravy train = regular salary.
Across all his AIM listed Co's this would be his first opportunity to undertake such a buyback ..
That said, I hear you Jessso.. I do indeed hear you: Do I think he will? No
NtM "Do I think he will? No"
Me neither NtM.
NTM
YOU are a bloody genius.
£600K buyback over 6 months - love it.
Really impressed with your grey m🩶tter
cruELLA ❣️
Try this:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/XTR/manica-q2-2023-gold-production-update/16178366
Can someone explain why Colin stated in 6 Apr podcast of AISC 700$ AN ounce to XTR for Q1 yet in report it says 1185 an ounce - that's one helova difference
Also is the nett profit agreement permanent with MMP or will it revert to original agreement and if so what milestone needs to be reached?
Thanks
"The Net Profit share due to Xtract for the 6 months ended 30 June 2023 is estimated to be US$2.1 million."
Ref: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-q2-2023-gold-production-update-7j0jyqnq4a4tz5m.html
Q1 - Oz produced: 4,522
Q2 - Oz produced: 6,456
Looking good, I make that circa £944.5k to XTR for Q2 and it looks like Fairbride is starting to get up to speed.
Positives:
1. Realised gold price at 1989 per oz is decent
2. Empress numbers can be used in future as accurate and earlier indicator for XTR. They reported H1 as 340kg 10931 Troy Oz an age ago.
3. July apparently is a big step up in gold produced 82.9kg versus June 62.6kg
4. Improvement in production across most metrics is good quarter on quarter ( tonnes mined and process, grade and recovery)
Less positive:
1. Operating margin at (1989-1215) 784 per oz is at lower end of my expecations. However it is stated this was due to inflill drilling but unclear if this is one off in nature.
2. Alluvials and Hard Rock seems very low.
Would have been helpful to get an updated view of cash position and collection of the operating profit share from MMP as it appeared at half year end this was largely accounted through as a provision and not reflected (fully) in cashflow.