Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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When you consider back in May of ‘21, in a video interview Colin gave a good indication of what was expected for the DtM option to be triggered, saying,
“ once you get into the hard numbers and models, you can say we are starting an open pit and will develop the porphyry from that pit partially we”ll sink a shaft partially, so that one gets the benefit of the depth with the pit created”
It would now appear to have been a closer account of what was expected to trigger the DtM than was maybe later perceived by many shareholders including myself, in that the DtM was maybe an oz term that just meant that it would require the project to show economic viability to trigger that option.
So in that respect it could certainly be the best option now toward navigating out of the agreement by negotiating a royalty with AA.
Also worth considering, is that with the stronghold that AA has, they may themselves buy BR back, now that the project has potentially been de risked, to farm it out to a mid cap capable of working alongside AA as part developer and operator.
Got to remember, xtract have just literally scratched the surface of just the identified other targets including Ascot which could well go on to be the primary mine, as the gold and moly credits are more profound there. So a further scenario to farming it’s development out, is that although AA “at present” , for whatever internal political reason they may have for not wanting to operate in NSW, (if that is the case) they may not want to give up their overall right to exploit BR later themselves, either farming out just the ongoing exploration with a mid cap, or parking it up and doing it themselves later to prove any greater potential. In case that internal political stance may change at a later point prompting maybe buying BR back for now.
Could it leave xtract with a weak hand now both agr option targets are not going to be met. So best thing now is to just cut and run, as AA as sure as hell are going to play hard ball.
Hence Colin thinks they can get their money spent back and some more.
My rationale is that I don’t see this seemingly low value perceived as the projects true value. But can accept it maybe Colin’s, once more heavily discounted.
Hi Gordie
Been looking into ore sorting from the perspective of the waste material after a previous comment you made.
>>> It crossed my mind that there is a possibility the rejected ore from sorting could lend itself to bioleaching , thoughts ?
It’s obvious that ore sorting must create additional or increase revenue over the top what it would produce without the tech, which must also justify the investment and operation of that waste rejection step. Now of course the standard project evaluations, NPV and IRR, ultimately underline the economic viability of the chosen or preferred scenario that would include the waste cycle, but that’s one for the DFS or possibly in the PFS flowsheet am certain.
It’s clear though, the waste created, if not left on a rock dump or to be used as backfill underground later. It can be either sold as aggregate, stockpiled for cheaper processes, or put through and processed later in the operation, potentially using scavenger tech prior.
The interesting thing I read with bio-leaching is that it could potentially be far more environmentally sustainable than the usual hydro-metallurgical recovery method for low grade ore, and the fact is is a lot simpler a method it makes it far cheaper too.
All interesting but I don’t see it will be evaluated in any preferred mining scenario just yet, as the finished mining study will just give an early stage evaluation of potential economic viability, but it does look to be a strong possibility and particularly so if recoveries from pre-concentration cannot be vastly improved upon then is likely a further processing step of the rejected ore will certainly follow if of course the economics support it as it will also need to be able to increase revenue over the top of what it would produce without the process as with pre-concentration.
Economics will ultimately dictate.
Good question cheers
Howezap
I was at the AGM and CB did state RC would be a mine (no time frame) but he didn’t say 3 companies are interested he said companies like the project and then named 3 companies (I believe who have had a historic interest in the project).
To be clear that’s my interpretation of CB comments (not saying captain is incorrect), and it’s obviously a subtle (but key) difference to his and my interpretation.
Cheers
James
The Empress CEO was impressive in their presentation l thought. Wouldn't argue with her !.
Yep was a strange week, that only goes to show now that the market is sceptical about anything positive that CB says. Almost a crying wolf scenario where the market is going to have to see the results of any positive forward looking statements first now, even if CB could, and implied a firm degree of certainty behind it any belief has disappeared, from familiar investors from the CB stable anyway.
At first it looked as though the share price was going to get hammered after the ‘disappointment’ comment that was singled out, but what was ignored largely was his further comments that Bushranger ‘will’ go onto be a mine and that he named three companies that are interested in the project.
(Courtesy of Captainbob notes)
What is he implying there but can’t let on due to the AA option in place.
I prefer to think Andrew, instead of doubting that many will be looking back pleased for not selling at 7p, I think in two years many will be thankful for Colin’s early hyperbole that did just enough to drag them along, some kicking and screaming when BR is eventually sold, and for a tidy sum.
The ones that didn’t decide to bail that is!
I think a decent spike here will start with an unexplained rise to 2.5p followed by a spike to 4p on news.
Timescale is an unknown to me but it will happen knowing CB.
I'm determined to make some money here so I'll be out then and then back in on the retraction.
My opinion of CB hasn't changed, I'm just a bit calmer than I was a week ago.
Y'all have a good weekend !
Despite a few holders who seemed to have had enough and wanted out after the AGM, the SP is broadly where we started on Monday morning. Bit of U shaped week tbh.
No doubt there are still some that are looking to exit at a higher SP but the fact that they did not take advantage of the ease to sell in bulk for some time this week (MM would take 1.2M for 1.35p today and 1M at 1.3P this week ) shows that many don't see this as a basket case of a share which is only going down. When its as bad as that then its a case of jump out at any price before it falls again.
I would expect the weak hands to fully sell up in the next spike after, possibly, FB income RNS declared or maybe Economic model update? No doubt it will be a bumpy ride with some exiting as the sp moves up.
I still expect this to at least double from this level (at some point) and maybe, with a bit of luck 3 or even 4 bag over next 2 years?
That said, in 2 years time, I doubt many will be looking back and pleased that they didnt sell when sp was 7p last year though :). I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it !
That's my wish Captain Bob .. it has not been said by CB
NTM, was that said at the AGM?, re CEO, missed that bit if he did?
(...and CB said he was moving to the role of Chairman only from 1 Jan 2024 .. and had found a CEO for xtr,l with Industry wide recognised credentials )
''and my share of the company halved (before i sold some) due to bushranger, which is currently worthless.''
Obviously its blo+dy bad news for all here that Bushranger is currently worthless in the markets eyes.. but given we now know that Mr Colin Bird is not for spending any more money on drilling there, at least POC rises decently and the market starts to push up the s/p towards acknowledging some value in Bushranger.. then Bushranger shouldn't be categorised by any as a minus valuation now.. and that makes it clearer that if you value Manica in the 2 to 5p range, then it's undervalued at the current share price.
I had just sold my car, prices were high and it seemed a good idea to make some extra money from the AA buyout and buy another car in a few months time. I can relate to people's frustration over BR ...... Equally you have to move on.
I didnt buy anymore at 7p, but there was no way I was going to sell at 7p after CB's many comments.
It was definitely going into double figures aftter the buy-out wasn't it ??? :)
I'm happy to hold as my bet is its going higher from this level, but I wont be believing anything CB says ever again in an interview.
Interestingly over 5 years XTR is up 43% but AIM is down 30%. (Sadly l was still buying at 7p !).
Lucky
You previously said
" I still hold 2 million shares. ..... trying to sell in volume, is difficult. If I try selling the rest this week, I imagine I'll get an average of 1.3 for them? Maybe less?"
If you want more than the 1.3p you could have got today, then I think you should be joining the "Pump brigade" as you have characterised them :)
Or at least not make posts that could be seen as negative .
Ofc that's assuming you still have any shares left to sell. You may not have.
Yes howzap, you have described it perfectly, but I would say....the next bunch of gullible idiots, not confident shareholders, to carry on colins gravy train.
I used to be you, telling the people who are saying bad things, that they are just trying to deramp to get in cheaper, or trade it, or, your just jealous because we're making money and you sold......
It goes on and on in a big cycle.
I've made very little in 5 years, I should have listened and sold on the spike. I will on the next spike, while the rest of the "confident shareholder" wait for the pot of gold that never materialises.
Ohh yeah, and my share of the company halfed (before i sold some) due to bushranger, which is currently worthless. If we had no bushranger, I would likely be happy with my sale of shares at 4p. (My original target)
Lucky, here’s a thought. For the share price to march on, it will need an influx of new investors to take over when the disgruntled investors finally leave. Originally there was the financing overhang issue holding it back and will no doubt be held back with get out, or rebalance selling all the way up to 6p or so.
CB’s comment of ‘disappointment’ was either effing stupid or clever strategy to tip the weaker holders on the verge to finally bail releasing what is a shed load of shares at a low price to be taken up by new or existing more confident holders.
The current, confident investors with a longer term outlook “from this point on” are not overly concerned about the share price being where it is for time being at least.
Yours
Rampy Ramperton 😉
HZ - thanks. I know when l researched it a while ago l thought the project had a lot of potential bar the obvious current production. It is good to hear Empress saying the same.
Colin has been tweeting about copper and not tagging Xtract again. Shows what he thinks of bushranger. If it's not worth a little tag on twitter, is it worth 200 million!
I see the boards got lots of new and old posters here. Pump brigade back, I'm ready to offload this time.
Hi flipper going by the DFS all of the ‘classified’ resource at fairbride is down to just 280m. I’m unclear of the pit optimisation model finalised for max depth but what is clear is that there will be a smooth transition engineered to finally go into the deeper sulphides when that time comes. At what depth achieved and ongoing mining method is uncertain as any ongoing pit extensions will now ultimately dictate I would have thought. Is a changing geological landscape so to speak from now on depending on what can be further added to the resource or reserves.
HZ - am l right in thinking that it is open at source and can eventually go underground ?
If I recall correctly Jeremy Read was also involved in Pursuit Minerals deal with Kendrick Resources in Northern Europe.
Another CB company, Kendrick not Pursuit!
Quite a tease suggesting a new sulphide plant could be developed nearer to fairbride pit. Implications do seem to be that both would run concurrent potentially doubling throughput dependant on scale of course. If so, or that assumption is made, then the higher grade material would further increase xtract share of profits with up and above 2.62 g/t ‘average’ resource grade from the current 1.7g/t currently being mined from oxides when new plant is running. (2.62g/t average across all FB pit gold reserves of 215,000oz ) an increase of 50% more recovered gold from new plant on top of doubling up with both.
Leaving existing plant to process the oxides from satellite mines getting into the remaining 992,000oz with option to maximise capacity also with potential of processing out sourced material from artisanal mines nearby maybe. Incidentally Colin mentioned this is an option for theplant at Kakuyu in his podcast on the matter with Zak I think.
No way would they decommission the existing plant to move it to new site for its modular components.!! New plant would surely be standalone, ROM pad, crush and process to run concurrently alongside current plant it has to, if potential LOM across all exploitable gold is to be reduced.
Be interesting to see what size mill is being considered and scale of operation will deliver.
Every aspect, including exploration within the concession and evaluation and work to exploit new material will start to ramp up over coming few years into a much larger operation overall.
Manica has been unlocked!
Apols to cyberiaches.. I missed the bottom line in his post the first time I glanced thru here:
''Ounces could/should increase - target is 30,000 plus ounces per annum ''
So we're very much on the same page.
The legendary geologist JENTA OWENS , MD at Godolphin Resources referred to in the article - expert in the Lachlan Fold geology where XTR's Bushrangers is.
Oh, guess who is the Non-Executive Chairman? None other than JEREMY READ.
I did recall that so I checked.
Link: https://www.godolphinresources.com.au/board-and-management
Xtract Resources RNS 4 Aug 2021: Mr Jeremy Read has stepped down as a non-executive director of XTR but will remain as Project Manager.
There does not seem to be any more XTR RNS's about Mr Read.