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Thought I would get some flack, but I've been here for over 5 years. Talked with gixxer,Bob,CE and Andrew over these long years.
I've had enough, and yes Andrew I may buy back in if it drops, but its only to trade them now. I know Colins tricks now and I'll use the years of experience to try and make some money for once.
I don't currently see any shareholder value ever being delivered from Colin to shareholders.
And to say I'm trying to get the price down, to get back in?
For one, no one person talking on these boards can really affect the share price. Except Steve, which I was shocked in his damage.
2. Why would I buy back in? Don't see any reason to at the moment.
Thanks for reply. Why did he say we didn't have any ? Is not BR one ? We couldn't afford a ready to go one so they would have to be speculative exploration purchases which means any of the projects that we have had already ? I'm not getting where he was coming from tbh ?
I would understand the sentiment around throwing the towel in that many may have at the moment , but would suggest having a balanced outlook . It's funny how the initial posts regarding the agm were mainly reactionary but the most balanced posts have emerged later, probably after some reflection of the reality of the situation https://optionalpha.com/blog/the-14-stages-of-investor-emotions-and-trading-psychology
LW, blue sky mining just means a huge open pit , all the work is done under blue skys , easiest and most profitable way to make money , similar to fairbride but many times bigger , no shafts to dig, no adits, no ventilation, no specialised machinery, no underground mining , lower capex and opex(usually ) https://fuchenglhd.com/blog/underground-mining-vs-surface-mining/
I was at the AGM on Friday, and also at last year's.
BUSHRANGER
It was clear Colin was disappointed with 1.3mt, but also confirmed that it's the biggest discovery in the Lachlan Fold in the last 20-30 years.
Colin stated he felt it was a Tier two project.
He stated that the open pit at Bushranger with the 'high grade stuff ' could work for 6-9 years and doesn't benefit from pre -sorting.
Colin said the pre -sorting could be tweaked, mentioned other methods.
He felt that half million tonne operations would be highly sought after.
It was clear to me that there would be no more drilling.
Colin stated that 3 other Companies were looking at Bushranger, but he didn't state whether this was pre xtract purchasing or post purchase.
Colin discussed at length how AA could make life difficult with the contract in place, but also stated why would they, what would they have to gain. They may want a royalty uplift to let xtract free of contract, but he doesn't know until he gets in conversation with them.
Colin spoke about 'Blue Sky ' projects and at the same time acknowledged that all in the room were probably looking for a ten bagger when investing. My interpretation from that was Colin sees a Blue sky project as a potential ten bagger. I could be wrong.
For the past two years I've let my optimism over Bushranger get ahead of me, so initially felt disappointed at the meeting, but on reflection and talking to others who attended, am optimistic that Bushranger can be monitised at a decent price. I'm not prepared to speculate on a forum as to what price can be achieved.
MANICA
Production running at c62kg per month, could be higher in July. Plant needs upgrading to take sulphides over the next few years.Plan in place so no disruption when Oxides exhausted.
If xtract put in capital, CB would want to negotiate better terms of revenue take. If xtract don't get opportunity to put money into the plant upgrade then current deal of 23% remains.
Still 1.1million ounces of gold in the ground. Source of gold still not found.
Plenty of opportunity. Colin mentioned five million profit per annum (I assume he meant dollars).
KAKUYU
2-3 kilometers of strike.
Needs to be drilled.
Copper mine 6-8 months.
BLUE SKY
2 projects in Zambia. Clearly Colin likes Zambia. Challenged on how we would buy assets. Answer, from income, but may need some initial capital, I didn't hear a number mentioned.
This is all as I heard it and having had the benefit of making notes.
Others clearly have different opinions on what was said.
We dig 'oles in the ground for our projects...so clearly nothing to do with the blue sky there.. hence CB is right to say we don't have any blue sky projects :-)
More seriously, none of his other companies have gotten nearly as far as Manica has for xtr.. and very few sector AIM companies have either... I'm very thankful for this achievement... and when people calm down on the emotion and look detailedly at the fundamentals instead, I expect this s/p to go back over 2p
Andrew - love it. Made me laugh anyway, whilst the cricket has stopped.
He said we didn't have any. I really would like to understand what he was trying to say.
What are Blue sky projects?
Blue skies research (also called blue sky science) is scientific research in domains where "real-world" applications are not immediately apparent. It has been defined as "research without a clear goal" and "curiosity-driven science".
“Blue sky projects” are projects that have unbounded and often unrealistic objectives that don’t consider the constraints of the real world that might be applicable to them.
So in other words - lets have a punt on looking over there :) We may get lucky.
So we can look forward to spikes off the back of purchase RNS's.
Business as usual and CB's forte !
In the last podcast he spoke about mid tier projects so l assume will be more substantial than those at his other Companies imho
LW - my assumption would be they are looking at projects where there is some data available and which they feel hasn't been properly interpreted or were abandoned due to political reasons or low copper prices.
Anyone ? I'm not after a technically faultless definition but a general idea of what he meant by "blue sky".
Hi LW good question, we still argue CB interp of a Tier 1 mine.
His last comment on it was a project with over 1.5mt of copper!
It’s one of those grey sky areas
Question.... what does "blue sky" mean in the way Colin was using it ?
Hi billy the current NSR royalty is to AA from ongoing sale, but there will be nothing stopping Xtr adding either a ‘further’ onward sell on royalty payment to Xtr, or their own NSR royalty.
Many projects pay out any number of royalties for any number of reasons so not uncommon to have these attached. They range from indigenous land rights, accessibility, permitting issues, sell on royalties etc.
Will not put off an acquirer as generally accepted as part of the economic evolution of a project.
>>I believe it will be valued around 100-200m+ still from anywhere between 4-600m NPV
Re the above, is likely lower end if recoveries cannot be significantly improved on with pre-concentration as it will only exploit 50 up to 75% of copper inventory.
*Doesn’t take into account smaller plant Cap Ex and lower Op costs toward final NPV though
HZP
Your post 1347hrs paragraphs 2 & 3. I concur. We would be foolish leave BR. It’s safe and stable even if it’s a steady revenue feed into XTRs portfolio.
A4444
Sorry typo just fired post off. Should have said FB priced in Not Monica.
Let’s not be sidetracked on the viability of BR to deliver. Yes there may have been some disappointment with the bulk tonnage grade, most projects there will be element of disappointment from initial expectations. But as has been said, the pre-concentration gets those grades to where they need to be as the base line now which will improve as resource optimising continues.
I think the potential viability of a very large open pit mine of significant value is not so much the question, but the getting over the hurdle that is the buy back agreement ( have said it myself so many times)
As we know there is already a Net Smelter Return royalty attached if the project is sold on to third party. I doubt this will be affected if negotiating a get out, with the difficulty in proving the DtM. I would say a royalty payment would come from sale proceeds directly as a percentage.
Could be likely early discussions have taken place and there is an ‘understanding now’ at least. With Colin being able to make the comment that they should be able to take profit from the deal. (In other words)
It’s not that the project is worth only 10-20m $/£ that is absurd, it points to a ‘final’ NPV of being around $100m. I believe it will be valued around 100-200m+ still from anywhere between 4-600m NPV possibly way more with higher copper prices. With Colin not setting expectations too high for now, we could walk away with more than 50% sale proceeds . Xtract do 100% own BR after all and without then having to go through the buy back process and subsequent valuation under Valmin code, there is far more wiggle room to negotiate with a third party anyway that would favour the chunk that xtract finally could receive.
Don’t let the doom crew grind you down it still remains the same, reward will come from any sale with a proven economically viable study and not because of tonnage potential or because it’s now going cheap!
This board is unreadable.
Billy. "As for Manica its producing and market has priced this in"
Don't agree that market has priced manica income in. Market is waiting for actual figures from FB to be confirmed in an RNS (Q2 results?) and then will react.
CB's comments don't work anymore - understandably, so his income figures are taken with a pinch of salt now. Market wants proof in an RNS
tbh I don't have much hope of CB's new acquisitions doing much ( I may be wrong) . They will be low cost though.
I still think Bushranger will deliver value (2p to 5p) when sold, but not until 12 to 18 months though.
FB will probably be the cash cow esp after plant modified. 6-8 years of income from now?
Summary - still plenty of upside from this level (IMHO) but nothing like CB's early predictions in value or time scales. Like Ntm, I will be loading up IF sp drops next week.
AIMHO
Lucky trying to bring the price down so he can buy more shares he's done it before.
Other than Lucky everyone seems to have come away from the AGM with a spring in their step can't believe he didn't speak up a the meeting when he had the chance.
The positive thing is Bushranger is not valued into the price at the moment, if we get just a bit of positive news this will move fast.
Good luck
FFS why do bother posting that rollex. It’s actually puts people off.
Some very good feed back from those attending AGM thanks.
Generally we are 50/50 more tilting to 75/25 on BR going forward. CB now having to pay long game to monetise BR. AA choke hold needs to be freed.
As for Monica its producing and market has priced this in. Any new acquisitions just add to a portfolio. Markets like to see we have more than one iron in the fire.
GL
Jus catching up on some good feedback from sundry posters here who attended AGM .. much appreciated.
Clearly people can't help talking their own book to some degree in their feedback.. but that's the case the World over.
CB taking lots of time to have a cold hard look on whether more money spent on BR drilling is the optimal use of the firms now strong cash generation in remainder of 23 and into early 24 is absolutely the right thing to do imho
And that Manica sulphites processing capability build out should be highest short term priority here in my mind now.
Re 'literary no positive news':
The strong revenue from Manica for at least a few years to come .. and maybe plenty more than a few of years to come after the sulphides plant build out ... is blindingly obviously very positive news in my mind.... and the market cap here is clearly very low versus the revenue/assets
And if this s/p were to take a temporary hit from some here for BR players moving on from xtr.l then I'll take that opportunity to add some more here
IMHO & DYOR