Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I'd be happy with 100-200m. Colin said we were all hoping to get 150-400m. He said we're disappointed. So to me, we won't even get 150 m.
I would take 10p for BR, I don't believe we would get that, currently.
Colin said the numbers are great at $10k copper, i thought that's good. That was until I done the maths and it's over $4.5 per LB.
No one is using thise figures.
That's why we are waiting for 24/25.
The copper price might not be good enough by then.
It just proves colins been living through his teeth.
I'll stop posting the negative stuff as I've been a very invested xtract holder over the years and know what it's like to have faith in a share and for people to post negatively about it.
Yes andrew your right, when i read it back after i posted i realised i should have said "some" . It's all relative isn't it, i have gone through all the emotions that everyone else has, twist or hold .Someone mentioned eternal optimism, at times i feel like the metal detectorist who just keeps turning up ring pulls . what i would like to see earlier rather than later is some deep holes drilled at manica and some indication what there may be at depth .
A444
I wouldnât be surprised if we turn blue tomorrow. All investors ever wanted was communication and updates. The silence killed and SP dropped. CB got out the gates last year with constant updates and RNSâs. He either should have controlled and limited news flow if he could maintain it.
3hundred, if I shared the meeting recording, you would see a drop in the SP.
It's quite obvious that some are blinded by rose tinted glasses. I've seen it in AFC energy. I was invested there before the spike and I popped over there to see the same faces talking the same positive potential now. Some people fall in love with a share and never sell. I realised I become one of them in xtract.
I went into the meeting for clarification on BR.
When it might be sold, and how much.
We got the Answer, 24/25 and it will be more than we put in, and a bit more. How people come out of the meeting thinking, 100-200m is beyond me.
Maybe someone else recorded the meeting and will release it. That way people can make up their own minds.
"I would understand the sentiment around throwing the towel in that many may have at the moment "
Is it really "many" though?
Apart from one attendee, every AGM summary, from those that were there was either neutral outlook or slightly more on the positive side.
As I said on Friday it looks that only 2 sold on Friday after AGM (from their comments) . Majority seemed at least OK with what they heard and no reason to sell up?
No reason to expect a big sell off tomorrow but IF it happens then I suspect many will take the opportunity to add?
AIMHO
Thanks for the affirmation Pinnochio.
I would also say, that of the people I spoke to both before and after the meeting, few posted their thoughts, and although not happy about the current share price, understood the various headwinds and challenges facing CB and the team.
Colin did accept that being an eternal optimist, the 1.3mt left him and others feeling disappointed.
The positive take for me is that although BR isn't considered Blue sky or Tier one, it's still a big asset, not priced in, and the Company has decent cashflow, soon to be recognised by the market.
Patience required, I'm going nowhere.
So the takeaway from everyoneâs posts today itâs game on with BR. Just need to bowl out AA or retire them.
FB & Monica hold the the fort for now. It always takes a few days for news to be digested and todays posts donât seem to deviate too much from what was said at AGM.
Thought I would get some flack, but I've been here for over 5 years. Talked with gixxer,Bob,CE and Andrew over these long years.
I've had enough, and yes Andrew I may buy back in if it drops, but its only to trade them now. I know Colins tricks now and I'll use the years of experience to try and make some money for once.
I don't currently see any shareholder value ever being delivered from Colin to shareholders.
And to say I'm trying to get the price down, to get back in?
For one, no one person talking on these boards can really affect the share price. Except Steve, which I was shocked in his damage.
2. Why would I buy back in? Don't see any reason to at the moment.
Thanks for reply. Why did he say we didn't have any ? Is not BR one ? We couldn't afford a ready to go one so they would have to be speculative exploration purchases which means any of the projects that we have had already ? I'm not getting where he was coming from tbh ?
I would understand the sentiment around throwing the towel in that many may have at the moment , but would suggest having a balanced outlook . It's funny how the initial posts regarding the agm were mainly reactionary but the most balanced posts have emerged later, probably after some reflection of the reality of the situation https://optionalpha.com/blog/the-14-stages-of-investor-emotions-and-trading-psychology
LW, blue sky mining just means a huge open pit , all the work is done under blue skys , easiest and most profitable way to make money , similar to fairbride but many times bigger , no shafts to dig, no adits, no ventilation, no specialised machinery, no underground mining , lower capex and opex(usually ) https://fuchenglhd.com/blog/underground-mining-vs-surface-mining/
I was at the AGM on Friday, and also at last year's.
BUSHRANGER
It was clear Colin was disappointed with 1.3mt, but also confirmed that it's the biggest discovery in the Lachlan Fold in the last 20-30 years.
Colin stated he felt it was a Tier two project.
He stated that the open pit at Bushranger with the 'high grade stuff ' could work for 6-9 years and doesn't benefit from pre -sorting.
Colin said the pre -sorting could be tweaked, mentioned other methods.
He felt that half million tonne operations would be highly sought after.
It was clear to me that there would be no more drilling.
Colin stated that 3 other Companies were looking at Bushranger, but he didn't state whether this was pre xtract purchasing or post purchase.
Colin discussed at length how AA could make life difficult with the contract in place, but also stated why would they, what would they have to gain. They may want a royalty uplift to let xtract free of contract, but he doesn't know until he gets in conversation with them.
Colin spoke about 'Blue Sky ' projects and at the same time acknowledged that all in the room were probably looking for a ten bagger when investing. My interpretation from that was Colin sees a Blue sky project as a potential ten bagger. I could be wrong.
For the past two years I've let my optimism over Bushranger get ahead of me, so initially felt disappointed at the meeting, but on reflection and talking to others who attended, am optimistic that Bushranger can be monitised at a decent price. I'm not prepared to speculate on a forum as to what price can be achieved.
MANICA
Production running at c62kg per month, could be higher in July. Plant needs upgrading to take sulphides over the next few years.Plan in place so no disruption when Oxides exhausted.
If xtract put in capital, CB would want to negotiate better terms of revenue take. If xtract don't get opportunity to put money into the plant upgrade then current deal of 23% remains.
Still 1.1million ounces of gold in the ground. Source of gold still not found.
Plenty of opportunity. Colin mentioned five million profit per annum (I assume he meant dollars).
KAKUYU
2-3 kilometers of strike.
Needs to be drilled.
Copper mine 6-8 months.
BLUE SKY
2 projects in Zambia. Clearly Colin likes Zambia. Challenged on how we would buy assets. Answer, from income, but may need some initial capital, I didn't hear a number mentioned.
This is all as I heard it and having had the benefit of making notes.
Others clearly have different opinions on what was said.
We dig 'oles in the ground for our projects...so clearly nothing to do with the blue sky there.. hence CB is right to say we don't have any blue sky projects :-)
More seriously, none of his other companies have gotten nearly as far as Manica has for xtr.. and very few sector AIM companies have either... I'm very thankful for this achievement... and when people calm down on the emotion and look detailedly at the fundamentals instead, I expect this s/p to go back over 2p
Andrew - love it. Made me laugh anyway, whilst the cricket has stopped.
He said we didn't have any. I really would like to understand what he was trying to say.
What are Blue sky projects?
Blue skies research (also called blue sky science) is scientific research in domains where "real-world" applications are not immediately apparent. It has been defined as "research without a clear goal" and "curiosity-driven science".
âBlue sky projectsâ are projects that have unbounded and often unrealistic objectives that donât consider the constraints of the real world that might be applicable to them.
So in other words - lets have a punt on looking over there :) We may get lucky.
So we can look forward to spikes off the back of purchase RNS's.
Business as usual and CB's forte !
In the last podcast he spoke about mid tier projects so l assume will be more substantial than those at his other Companies imho
LW - my assumption would be they are looking at projects where there is some data available and which they feel hasn't been properly interpreted or were abandoned due to political reasons or low copper prices.
Anyone ? I'm not after a technically faultless definition but a general idea of what he meant by "blue sky".
Hi LW good question, we still argue CB interp of a Tier 1 mine.
His last comment on it was a project with over 1.5mt of copper!
Itâs one of those grey sky areas
Question.... what does "blue sky" mean in the way Colin was using it ?
Hi billy the current NSR royalty is to AA from ongoing sale, but there will be nothing stopping Xtr adding either a âfurtherâ onward sell on royalty payment to Xtr, or their own NSR royalty.
Many projects pay out any number of royalties for any number of reasons so not uncommon to have these attached. They range from indigenous land rights, accessibility, permitting issues, sell on royalties etc.
Will not put off an acquirer as generally accepted as part of the economic evolution of a project.
>>I believe it will be valued around 100-200m+ still from anywhere between 4-600m NPV
Re the above, is likely lower end if recoveries cannot be significantly improved on with pre-concentration as it will only exploit 50 up to 75% of copper inventory.
*Doesnât take into account smaller plant Cap Ex and lower Op costs toward final NPV though
HZP
Your post 1347hrs paragraphs 2 & 3. I concur. We would be foolish leave BR. Itâs safe and stable even if itâs a steady revenue feed into XTRs portfolio.